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:20100120:(1971),,,,,:(07JC790027)2010.6周光友(复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433):电子货币的产生与发展已经给传统的货币金融理论带来了前所未有的挑战,也对商业银行的存款货币创造能力产生了明显的影响以电子货币为视角,将电子货币引入存款货币创造的理论分析框架,并对电子货币发展与存款货币创造能力的相关性进行实证检验研究发现:电子货币在放大货币乘数的同时也使其稳定性下降,因此,中央银行难以通过存款准备金政策影响货币乘数,进而影响商业银行的存款货币创造能力,从而加大了中央银行控制货币供给的难度:电子货币;存款货币创造;准备金政策;货币乘数:F820:A:1001-6260(2010)06-0090-07,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,一相关文献回顾,,,,,(BIS)2004,,(BIS,2004)Hebbink(1996)Solomon(1997),!90!Hawkins(2002)Reddy(2002)Sullivan(2002)Janson(2003)Owen(2004),Friedman(2000)Goodhart(2004),,,,,,,,(1999)(2000),(2001)(2003),,,(2001),(2001),(2002)(2004),,(2005),,(2006,2007),,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,:,,,;,,;,;,,,二理论模型,,,,,(rd)(rt)(t)(e)(k),,,:m=1+krd+rt∀t+e+k:m;k=C/D,(C)(D),;t=TD/D,(TD)(D),;rd;rt;e=E/D,E,krdrtte,!91!,,,,(k),(,2006),,,,,,rd+rt∀tre,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:me=1+kere+de+ke,me,re,de,ke,rede,ke,ke,:;,,,,,,,,meke,keme=1+kere+de+ke:me=1+1-de-rere+de+ke1-de-re0,0,ke,keke,:meke=re+de-1(re+de+ke)2re+de1,re+de-10,meke=re+de-1(re+de+ke)20,meke,keme,keme三实证分析(一)数据来源指标选择与数量模型,!92!,,,#∃,,,,M1,,M1(1)(D),,,,,,,,,,,,,(2)(E)M1:,(M1),,,M1,M1,,,,,(3)(K)():,,,,,,,1,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,:LND=C+1LNE+2LNK+,C,D,E,K,12!93!EK(二)对各变量的ADF检验1(ADF)(I,T,P)ADF(1%)(5%)LND(0,0,1)3.1343-2.7550-1.9710LND(I,0,1)-4.0911-4.0579-3.1199LNE(I,0,1)0.1533-4.0044-3.0989LNE(I,0,1)-3.1901-4.0579-3.1199*LNK(I,0,1)0.6096-4.0044-3.0989LNK(I,0,1)-3.9675-4.0579-3.1199*:(1)IT,PAIC,0(2)ADF,*5%,1%(3),,,,(:,),ADF11,LNELNDLNK,,,,(三)协整检验2Johansen5%ProbLND0.9449.7629.780.0001*LNE0.6013.02815.4980.1138LNK0.070.993.8480.3183!!!Johansen,JJ22,LNDLNELNK,(四)格兰杰因果关系检验3FPLND%LNE110.10550.00882.42190.1479LNE%LND22.15700.17811.68910.2444LND%LNK10.62670.44536.22770.0297LNK%LND20.13450.87613.96820.0635:%,3,LNELNKLND,LNDLNELNK(五)各变量与信用创造能力的长期均衡关系,LNELNKLND,LNELNK,LND,:LND=8.08+0.09LNE-2.72LNK(9.18)(0.68)(-5.15)R2=0.981,DW=1.42四对实证结果的分析,,(E)(D),,,,M1,,,,,,!94!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,五结论及启示,,,:,,,,,,,,,,:(1),,,,,,,,,,(2),,,,,,,,,,,(3),,,,,,,,,,(4),,,,,,,,!95!:,.2002.[J].(1):53-58.,.2001.[J].(7):21-25.,.2003.[J].(4):26-30..1999.[J].(10):71-74.,.2005.[J].(4):121-125.,.2001.[J].(4):24-30..2000.[J].(4):34-41..2000.[J].(11):19-24..2006.[J].()(4):1219-1233..2007.[J].(5):98-107.BankforInternationalSettlements(BIS).2004.Surveyofdevelopmentsinelectronicmoneyandinternetandmobilepayments[R].BankforInternationalSettlementWorkingPaper,WP/04/01.FRIEDMANBM.1999.Thefutureofmonetarypolicy:thecentralbankasarmywithonlyasignalcorps[R].BISWorkingPaper,WP/997420,March.GOODHARTCAE.2000.CancentralbankingsurvivetheITrevolution[J].InternationalFinance,3(2):189-209.HAWKINSJ.2002.Electronicfinanceandmonetarypolicy[R].BISWorkingPaper,WP/02/07,May.HEBBINKB.1996.Electronicmoney,currencydemandandtheseignoragelossintheG10countries[R/OL].G10WorkingPaper,:towardtheemergenceoffree-banking[EB/OL].:anempiricalanalysis[R].HamiltonCollege,WorkingPaper,WP/04/01.REDDYYV.2002.Reportoftheworkinggrouponelectronicmoney[R].ReserveBankofIndiaWorkingPaper,WP/02/11,July.SOLOMONEH.1997.Virtualmoney[M].[S.l]:OxfordUniversityPress.SULLIVANSM.2002.Electronicmoneyanditsimpactoncentralbankingandmonetarypolicy[R].HamiltonUniversityWorkingPaper,WP/02/04.AnEmpiricalStudyontheRelationshipbetweenDevelopmentofElectronicMoneyandAbilityofDepositMoneyCreationZHOUGuangyou(InstituteforFinancialStudies,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433)Abstract:Thedevelopmentofelectronicmoneybringsunprecedentedchallengeforthetraditionalfinancialtheory,andhasremarkableinfluencesonthecreationabilityofdepositmoneyofcommercebanks.Fromtheviewofelectronicmoney,thispaperintroducestheelectronicmoneyintothetheoreticalanalysisframeofdepositmoneycreationtotesttherelationshipbetweendevelopmentofelectronicmoneyandtheabilityofdepositmoneycreation.Theexperimentalanalysisshowsthatelectronicmoneyhasmonetarymultipliereffects,anddecreasesitsstability.Therefore,it&sdifficultforcentralbankstoinfluencemoneymultiplierbythepolicyofdepositreserve,toinfluencethecommercialbanks&creationabilityofdepositmoney,andtoincreasethedifficultytocontrolmoneysupply.Keywords:electronicmoney;depositmoneycreation;depositreservepolicy;moneymultiplier(责任编辑刘志炜)!96!