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:2006-03-16:2006-05-081,1,1,1,2,2,2(1.,710065;2.,834000):,,;,,:;;;;:TE88:A:1004-9614(2006)05-0037-03RemainingLifePredictionMethodofCorrodedPipelineLUOJin2heng1,ZHAOXin2wei1,ZHANGHua1,BAIZhen2quan1,LIYong2jun2,HUANGJi2hong2,LIUGuang2sheng2(1.TubularGoodsResearchCenterofCNPC,Xian710065,China;2.XinjiangOilfieldCompany,Kelamayi834000,China)Abstract:Basedonthereliabilitytheory,presentedanewmethodfortheremaininglifepredictionofcorrodedpipeline.Themethodincludesestablishingthelimitedstatefunctionofcorrodedpipeline,theprobabilitydistributionmodelsofvariablessuchascorrosionveloc2ityandthefailureprobabilityorreliabilityversetheservicetimeofcorrodedpipeline.Theremaininglifespanofcorrodedpipelinecanbecalculated,aslongastheacceptablefailureprobabilityortargetreliabilityisdeterminedaccordingtotheenvironmentalconditionsandrisksforthepipeline.ThenewmethodhasbeenutilizedsuccessfullyintheinjectingpipelineofXinjiangoilfield,andtheinspectioninter2valofthispipelinecanbedecidedasaresultoftheremaininglifeprediction.Kewwords:pipeline;corrosion;remaininglifeprediction;failureprobability;reliability0,,(ASMEB31G[1]BS7910[2]DNVRP-101[3]SY/T6477[4]),,,API579[5],,,,,,,11.1[6],(1):Z=pL-pa(1):pL[7];pa;pLpaTT,,Z,F(T),R(T),3:Z=pL-pa0,,R(T)=P(Z0)Z=pL-pa0,,F(T)=P(Z0)Z=pL-pa=0,,P(Z=0)=031papL,fp(pa)fp(pL)1(a)papL,(),papL,,F(T)1F(T)(T1T2),,pL,,F(T),TF(T)R(T)(2)(3):F(T)=0fp(pa)[pa0fp(pL)dpL]dpa(2)R(T)=0fp(pa)[pafp(pL)dpL]dpa(3)(a)pa(T1T2)20065PipelineTechniqueandEquipment2006No15©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(b)pa(T1T2)1papLpa,pa,1(b),F(T)R(T)F(T)=pa0fp(pL)dpL(4)R(T)=pafp(pL)dpL(5)papL,(2)(5)F(T)R(T)T,2F0R0,,2F(T)R(T)T1.2,RSF,RSFRSF=LDCLUC(6):LDC;LUCRSFKiefner[8],RSF(7):RST=1-A/A01-A/(A0Mt)(7):A;A0;MtFolias()(8)[5]:Mt=(1+01482)015(8)=11285LDt(9):;L;D;t,,A=Ld,(7)RSF=1-d/t1-d/(tMt)(10)d,pLpL=2mfstRSFD(11):mf,111[9];s(10)(11),pLpL=2mfstD1-d/t1-d/(tMt)(12)(12)(1):Z=2mfstD1-d/t1-d/(tMt)-pa(13)1.3,(14),,,,f(v)v=dT-T0(14):v;d;T;T01.4,,,DNV,,F010-2,R00199;,,F010-3,R001999;,,F010-5,R0019999921991,52km,114mm10mm,20G,1215MPa.200455,37,2.11.3,,3,2(),338PipelineTechniqueandEquipmentOct12006©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=3mm,L0=300mm.2.3,pa,1215MPa.2.4,1,818a,714a,611a.1/a01998180199971401999996113(1),,(2),:818a,714a,611a.:[1]ASMEB31G:1991ManualforDeterminingtheRemainingStrengthofCorrodedPipelines.[2]BS7910:1999GuideonMethodsforAssessingtheAcceptabilityofFlawsinFusionWeldedStructures.[3]DNV2RP2101:1999CorrodedPipeline.[4]SY/T6477:2000-.[5]APIRP579:2000RecommendedPracticeforFitness2For2Service.[6],,,..:,1992.[7],,,..,2005(1):31-32;38.[8]KIEFNERJF,VIETHPH.Newmethodcorrectscriterionforevaluatingcorrodedpipe.Oil&GasJ.,1990(6):56-59.[9]HOPKINSP,JONESDG.Astudyoflongandcomplexshapedcorrosionintransmissionpipelines,11thInt.ConferenceonOffshoreMechanicsandArcticEngineering,NewYork,ASME,1992,5(A):211-217.:(1972),,(23),(CC-003-1)[21],,[22-23]:[1]..:,2000.[2],,,..,1999,50(6):778-785.[3],..,1999,14(2):106-107.[4].().:,1998.[5],..,1997,26(2):12-15.[6]..,1997,26(4):38-40.[7],,,..,1999,14(3):227-228.[8]..,1995,24(1):3-7.[9]..,1998,25(2):70-72.[10],..,1998,19(3):26-28.[11]..,1993(4):16-17.[12]..,1994(3):1-3.[13],.(3).,1998(3):41-42.[14]..,1998(3):8-10.[15],,,...2000,27(3):167-171.[16],,,...2000,25(6):35-36.[17],..,2000(3):22-24.[18],..,1997,26(6):39-42.[19].JB/T4722-92,1992.[20].JB/T4740-1997,1997.[21][2004]5..(CC-003-1).[22]...,2003.[23]..:,1998.:(1960),,5:39©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.