我国水电投资项目经济评价方法与实证研究(1)

华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国水电投资项目经济评价方法与实证研究姓名：董芸申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：王诗才20061025IIIAbstractChinahasthemostabundanthydropowerresourceintheworld,whileitisunderlowerdevelopmentlevelandmismatchedbetweentheresourceandtheregioneconomicallevel.Hydropoweristhesoleenergyresourcewhichcanbemassiveandcontinuingdevelopedatthismoment.HydropowerisencouragedtobedevelopedbyChinesegovernmenttomeetwiththeelectricityrequirementfromthedevelopmentofeconomicandsociety,optimizetheallocationofresourceandelectricitysourcestructure,reducetheenvironmentpollutionandrealizethesustainabledevelopment.Underthestrategyofgreatwestdevelopment,andwiththeimplementationofprojectofpowertransmissionfromwesttoeastandconnectionofwholenationalpowernetwork,Chinesegovernmentnowaretakingpositiveactionstospeedupthedevelopmentofhydropower,thehydropowerhastheprosperousfutureandwillbekeptashighdevelopmentspeed.Thehydropowerprojectischaracterizedashugeinvestment,longconstructionperiod,widefieldinvolvement,complextechnologyandetc.Thesocalled“threebeyond”aretorturingtheinvestmentmanagementofhydropowerprojectforalongtime.Thefeasibilityresearchisabsolutelynecessarilybeforetheinvestmentdecision.Theeconomicalevaluationofprojectinvestmentistheorganiccompositionandtheimportantpartofthefeasibilitystudy.Withtherapiddevelopmentofthewaterpowerindustry,howtopreparethefeasibilitystudyandtheeconomicalevaluationisthekeytoguaranteethescientificinvestmentdecision,improvetheinvestmentbenefit.Thispaperreviewedthehistoricdevelopmentprogressofmethodandtheoreticalsystemofprojectevaluation,andthecurrentstatusofdomesticeconomicalevaluation.Thestatusandthecharactersoftheexploitationofwaterpowerresource,andthedevelopingtrendofthehydropowerindustryarestudied.Theeconomicevaluationsystemofpresentwaterpowerprojectisstudied,includingcashflowestimation,financialevaluation,nationaleconomicevaluationanduncertaintyanalysis.Thecasestudyisimplementedbasedonthedetailhydropowerproject.Theproblemsandconcernedsolutionsofthecurrenteconomicevaluationsystemarediscussedinthispaper.Keywords:hydropowerresourceeconomicevaluationfinanceevaluationnationaleconomyevaluationuncertaintyassessment1_____111.1[1]3.781.92[2]20101.2520202.1[2]1.2232[3]2.1[4]607070L-MUNIDOS-T-V2030[4]420301950193619601958196019705701968L-MUNIDOS-T-V1974L-ML-MUNIDO1971UNIDOUNIDO61975•.G.S-V-TL-MUNIDOL-ML-ML-MUNIDO1980(IDCAS)[5]2.2[5~7]L-MS-T-VUNIDOUNIDO-IDCAS7L-MS-T-VUNIDOUNIDO-IDCAS(1)L-ML-MtL-M(2)S-T-VS-T-VL-MS-T-V(3)UNIDOUNIDO19721978HansenJR()(4)UNDIO-IDCASUNIDO-IDCASUNIDO-IDCAS8UNIDO-IDCAS(5)DIVA()()()2.3[4]198319871988199319879[8]20067[9]103[10]2OO031932kW13685kWh0.25kW1081kWh1/6~1/103.13.1.1[10]l145t32.6t11230m319200kWha41551t100kWh350g406.76kW[1]5.92kWh3.78kW1.92kWh[11]36.2kWkm21116.3kWkm20.37kw0.48kW152120501kW1516kW303.1.23/4[10]()6015.59.913()73.1.3[1]2.1kW1kWh5160%[12]123.23.2.120041[12]25507079.61(63)32.28l1.41(8.58)5[10]23020271.5kW330kW240kW1820kWBOT80133.2.210817143.315[10]201020152O2O12500kW15000kW21000kW334053[10]20103()()()()16(420kw)(420kW)(150kw)(100kW)(330kW)(160kW)(330kW)(300kW)(550kW)(1260kW)(600kW)(68Okw)(125OkW)(740kW)(200kW)(136kW)(40O600kW)(200kW)3.4173.4.12025~303.4.2183.4.3()194[3]123456204.14.1.11212×4.13×24.2×24.34.1.222=4.4=4.5=4.614%17%12%0.001/kWh400/101.4/kW2.4/kW4.1.31=4.7223=4.8=4.917%5%3%33%=4.10=-4.113=4.12=4.1310%5%4.24.2.1244.2.2123425564.2.310)(1=−∑=TPttCOCI4.14tPCICOtCOCI)(−t=1/260)1()('1=+−∑=−TPtttiCOCI4.15tP'i=1/tP0TtP0T0T2∑=−+−=nitiiCOCIPNPV114.16PNPV27CICOinPNPV0PNPV0[13]1%2%1%2%30)1()(1=+−=∑=−ntttIRRCOCIPNPV4.17428100×4.18100×4.19100×4.204.2.4129∑==dPttdRI14.21dIdPtRtTTdRRtTP'+−=4.22Tt'TRtTRt302100×4.23753%100×4.244.34.3.1[1415]31()[17][16][1417]4.3.232123456784.3.3EIRRENPVEBCR1∑=−=+−nttttEIRRCB1014.2533tBttCttn2∑=−+−=ntttttiCBENPV114.26ti3∑∑=−=−++=nttttnttttiCiBEBCR11114.274.3.4[18]34[3](1)[19](2)(3)(4)4.3.5[20]35[21][22]361.084.4374.4.11TCTRQPTFCAVCQPTRQAVCTFCTC×=×+=4.28TRTC=4.30bQAVCPTFCQb−=4.312TVC0QTP0Q∫=00)(QdQQPTR4.32∫=00)(QdQQVTVC4.33TVCTFCTC+=4.34TFCdQQVdQQPTCTRTPQQ−−=−=∫∫0000)()(4.350=TP383pCIPCOtItntni∑+=−+=nnttPiPQCI11)1(4.36∑∑∑+=−+=−=−+⋅++++=nnttnnttntttPiQAVCiTFCiICO111111)1()1()1(4.37PpCOCI=4.38bQ)/()1()1(1111AVCPTFCiiIQnnttntttb−+++=∑∑+=−=−4.394.4.2394.4.34055.15.1.169000km2410m378.5%76.8%5350MW371MW63.51kWh2.01kWh2kWh59.50kWh293m5.18m370100km30m3/s582.32m35.1.266851041725420031045908694163577031698331134486846410%415.15.1MW35014001750kWh4.3638.7353.44132355196157215440218290131729942875764910459085.1.32001701293m5.18m32.32m3371MW5350MW59.50kWh5350MW500t510t5.268630371110%5.2.1425.32331.5%10%5247124701962912450495177625202266302%19036162701798610/kW175015.2.2430.30/kWh1750MW63.51kWh59.50kWh59.32kWh10%0.30/kWh17796515.2.312.72%10%22880501.27115.2.45.2445.2%12.722288051.271.5%12.151871971.212.10%11.611455881.163.5%12.121757571.214.10%11.501227091.155.35.3.1200310459081344311750118208820%23641840%12%12%12%12%12%80%94567180984014005.3.21456.12%5.58%200170120263.51kWh59.50kWh0.2%0.1%59.38kWh59.32kWh10%37303748%10%5.3.3==3.32%1%0.25%461750MW18150000/14%17%12%0.001/kWh400/101.4/