海外油气田开发新项目评价方法研究

26520059ACTAPETROLEISINICAVol.26No.5Sept.2005:(J22019001):,,19653,1989,(),E2mail:[e-mail]:0253O2697(2005)05O0042O061,22322(1.100083;2.100083;3.100034):,3,,,,,,,:;;;;:TE3:AEvaluationmethodfornewinvestmentprojectsofoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopmentGUORui1,2YUANRui2e2ZHANGXing3QIMei2YINXiu2ling2(1.ChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Beijing100083,China;2.ResearchInstituteofPetroleumExplorationandDevelopment,CNPC,Beijing100083,China;3.ChinaNationalOilandGasExplorationandDevelopmentCorporation,CNPC,Beijing100034,China)Abstract:ThefirstkeystepforChinesepetroleumcompaniestogoabroadandtakepartintheinternationalcompetitionistochoosetheproperprojects.Theexploitationprocedurefornewoil2gasinvestmentprojectsincludesinformationacquisition,datacollection,quickscreening,technicalandeconomicalevaluation,decision2making,bidding,negotiation,trackingtotakeoverandcanbedividedintothreestagesofopportunitystudy,evaluationanddecision2making,negotiationandtakeover.Thequickscreeningmethodsusedintheopportunitystudyofnewprojectsareappliedtoexaminethekeyfactorsforrestrictingprojectsbaseduponcompanyinvest2mentpoliciesandtoscreenoutsomeprojectsforfurthertechnicalandeconomicalevaluationaccordingtotheadvantagesandtechnicaldifficultiesofprojects.Differentprojecttypesneedthedifferenttechnicalandeconomicalevaluationways.Forthenewprojectsofoilfielddevelopment,thenetreservesandpotentialityevaluationaretakenasthecore,andtheprojectbenefitswillbeevaluatedonthebasisofcontractmodel,developmentengineeringstudyanddevelopmentriskanalysis.Theintegrativeevaluationandsequencingmethodfornewprojectsisbasedontheestablishmentofevaluatingparametersystemandrealizedbyusingmathematicalmodeloffuzzyintegrativeevaluationaccordingtothekeytechnicalandeconomicalparametersforinfluencingtheprojects.Keywords:overseasoil2gasfield;explorationanddevelopmentproject;evaluationmethod;parametersystem;fuzzymathematicalmodel,,,[1],,,1,,5:4337(1)::;:;:/71Fig.1ExploitationprocessofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoilOgasfielddevelopment2,,,,[2],,22Fig.2Workflowforquickscreeningofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment:,;,;,:,/,,:/,,,,5000m,(1010-3m2),(15API),(40),(),3,,,,,3,,,(),[3],,:,,;,[4],,;,[5],,,,/;,442005263Fig.3Workflowfortechnicalandeconomicalevaluationofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment,/,[6],,,4,,,4114:,:,:,,,:,,34.1.1,,,44.1.2,54.1.3[7],,6412,,,,,[7(a)],,,,[7(b)]413,,:,,0()1();,;,5:454Fig.4Parametersystemfortechnicalevaluationofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment5Fig.5Parametersystemforeconomicalevaluationofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment462005266Fig.6Parametersystemforinvestmentconditionevaluationofnewinvestmentprojectsforoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment7Fig.7Thekeyelementsfornewinvestmentprojectsofoverseasoil2gasfielddevelopment4.3.1:U={u1,u2,,ui,,un},uiV={v1,v2,,vj,,vm},vjA={a1,a2,,ak,,as},ak,s,a1=1;a2=0.8;a3=016;a4=0.4;a5=0.2uiRj={rijk}ns,(1in,1ks)(1)rijkvjuiakW={w1,w2,,wi,,wn}ni=1wi=1(2),xijXj={xij}n1={rijk}{ak}(3)1in,1jm,1ks,y(vj)={wi}{xij}(1in,1jm)(4)y(vj)vj,01,5:474.3.2,:,,;,;,;,,,5,,10.80.60.40.2,5,4.3.3(AHP)[8],,,,,,5(1),(2)(3),,,,(4),,,[1],,,.21[M].:,2003:10O22.[2]RafaelSandrea.[J].,2003,10(5):31O33.[3],.[J].,1995,3(3):37O40/47.[4]KomlosiZP.Application:Monte2Carlosimulationinriskevalua2tionofE&Pprojects[R].SPE68578,2001.[5]CorreB,ThoreP,deFeraudyV,etal.Integrateduncertaintyas2sessmentforprojectevaluationandriskanalysis[R].SPE65205,2000.[6],,.[J].,2002,23(2):1O5.[7],.[M].:,2001:211O238.[8],.[M].:,2002:212O217.(2005O02O012005O04O04)(41)MnSrNa,13C,18O,(3),[1],,,.[J].,1998,25(1):87O93.[2],,,.[J].,1994,15(4):275O283.[3],.[M].:,1986:158O173.[4]TurkerME,WrightVP.CarbonateSedimentology[M].Com2brige:BlackwellScience,1990:3365O4100.[5]MorrowDW.Dolomitizationandchemicalprocessesofdolomitedeposition[J].Geo2scienceCanada,1982,9(1):3O11.[6].[J].,1986,4(2):19O25.[7],.[J].,2001,22(3):22O26.(2004O11O262005O04O11)