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第二章：项目选择（ProjectSelection)•1、项目选择的含义•2、项目选择模型的评估标准•3、项目选择模型的类型•4、项目建议书•Projectselectionistheprocessofevaluatingindividualprojectsorgroupsofprojects,andthenchoosingtoimplementsomesetofthemsothattheobjectivesoftheparentorganizationwillbeachieved(项目选择是对单个或一组项目进行评估并选择实施对象从而实现母公司目标的过程).Thissamesystematicprocesscanbeappliedtoanyareaoftheorganization’sbusinessinwhichchoicesmustbemadebetweencompetingalternatives(在公司运营过程中，当需要在多个竞争性方案之间进行选择的时候，也同样可以应用这种方法).•Choosinganumberofprojects,aportfolio,isevenmorecomplex(选择一个项目组合，即多个不同的项目，甚至更加复杂).一、项目选择的含义•项目选择是指对单个或一组项目进行评估并选择实施对象从而实现公司目标的过程。•如：一家制造企业可以借助评估选择技术确定在部件组装流程中使用哪一种设备；建筑公司可以在一组投标项目中作出最佳的选择等。•PMisakeypersoninprojectselection,particularlyifaRequestforproposal(RFP,项目建议书)wasinvolved.•Inthischapterwediscussseveraltechniquesthatcanbeusedtohelpseniormanagersselectprojects.Projectselectionisonlyoneofmanydecisionsassociatedwithprojectmanagement.Todealwithalloftheseproblems,weusedecision-aidingmodels(决策辅助模型).Thisprocessofcavingawaytheunwantedrealityfromthebonesofaproblemiscalledmodelingtheproblem(从问题的实质中剔除不必要的因素的过程就称为问题模型化).Inotherwords,theidealizedversionoftheproblemthatresultsiscalledamodel(对问题的理想化描述就是模型).Themodelrepresentstheproblem’sstructure,itsform.Themodelcanbeshownwithmanyforms,suchasgraphs(曲线),analogies(类比),diagrams(图表),flowgraph(流程图),networkmodels(网络图),andsymbolic(mathematical)models.Themodelmaybequitesimpletounderstand,ortheymaybeextremelycomplex.•在进行项目选择时，常使用决策模型（decision-aidingmodel)（即项目选择模型）。•模型可以简化问题，也可以展示问题结构(structure)。•模型可能很容易理解，也可能非常复杂。二、项目选择模型的评估标准•合理选择投资项目，对每一家企业都至关重要。•公司在选择项目模型的时候，应考虑下列标准：•1、realism(实用性).•Themodelshouldreflecttherealityofthemanager’sdecisionsituation,includingthemultipleobjectivesofboththefirmanditsmanagers.Withoutacommonmeasurementsystem,directioncomparisonofdifferentprojectsisimpossible.Forexample,projectAmaystrengthenafirm’smarketsharebyextendingitsfacilities,andprojectBmightimproveitscompetitivepositionbystrengtheningitstechnicalstaff.Otherthingsbeingequal,whichisbetter?Themodelshouldtakeintoaccounttherealitiesofthefirm’slimitationsonfacilities,capital,personnel,etc.Themodelshouldalsoincludefactorsthatreflectprojectrisks,includingthetechnicalrisksofperformance,cost,andtimeaswellasthemarketrisksofcustomerrejectionandotherimplementationrisks.•1、实用性。如：项目A通过添置设备可以增加企业的市场占有率，项目B通过增加技术人员可以提高竞争地位，当其他条件相同时，哪个项目更好？（此时应充分考虑企业设备、资本、人力资源等方面的局限综合考虑。）•2、capability(功能性).•Themodelshouldbesophisticatedenoughtodealwithmultipletimeperiods,simulatevarioussituationsbothinternalandexternaltotheproject(e.g.,strikes,interestratechanges,etc.),andoptimizethedecision.Anoptimizingmodelwillmakethecomparisonthatmanagementdeemsimportant,considermajorrisksandconstraintsontheprojects,andthenselectthebestoverallprojectorsetofprojects.•2、功能性。模型的完善程度应适合多个时期，能够模拟项目内部和外部的各种条件，并能够使决策最优化。•3、flexibility(灵活性).•Themodelshouldgivevalidresultswithintherangeofconditionstobeself-adjustinginresponsetochangesinthefirm’senvironment;forexample,taxlawschange,newtechnologicaladvancementsalterrisklevels,andaboveall,theorganization’sgoalschange.•4、easeofuse(易用性).•Themodelshouldbereasonablyconvenient,nottakealongtimetoexecute,andbeeasetouseandunderstand.Itshouldnotrequirespecialinterpretation,datathataredifficulttoacquire,excessivepersonnel,orunavailableequipment.Themodel’svariablesshouldalsorelatetoone-to-onewiththosereal-worldparametersthemanagersbelievesignificanttotheproject.Finally,itshouldbeeasytosimulatetheexpectedoutcomesassociatedwithinvestmentsindifferentprojectportfolios.•5、cost(成本)•Data-gatheringandmodelingcostsshouldbelowrelativetothecostoftheprojectandmustsurelybelessthanthepotentialbenefitsoftheproject.Allcostsshouldbeconsidered,includingthecostsofdatamanagementandofrunningthemodel•3、灵活性。即模型应根据企业可能遇到的各种情况给出正确的结果。同时，模型应具有易于调整或自我调节的能力，以适应企业环境的变化（如税法变动、技术进步等因素）。•4、易用性。即模型应易于使用和理解，数据易于获得，而不需要花费过多的时间。•5、成本性。即数据收集和建立模型的成本要低于相应的项目成本，而且还要求低于项目的潜在收益。三、项目选择模型的类型•两种基本选择模型：数学模型非数学模型1、非数学模型（nonnumericmodels)•1)thesacredcow(圣牛).•Inthiscasetheprojectissuggestedbyaseniorandpowerfulofficialintheorganization.Oftentheprojectisinitiatedwithasimplecommentsuchas•“ifyouhaveachance,whydon’tyoulookinto---,”andtherefollowsanundevelopedideaforanewproduct,forthedevelopmentofanewmarket,forthedesignandadoptionofaglobaldatabaseandinformationsystem,orforsomeotherprojectrequiringaninvestmentofthefirm’sresources.Theimmediateresultofthisblandstatementisthecreationofa“project”toinvestigatewhateverthebosshassuggested.Theprojectis“sacred”inthesensethatitwillbemaintaineduntilsuccessfullyconcluded,oruntiltheboss,personally,recognizestheideaasafailureandterminatesit.•1）圣牛（TheSacredCow)模型。指项目首先由组织中的高层权威人士提议，然后产生有关新产品的设想、新市场的开发等工作。高层权威的提议常常直接导致项目的产生，从此意义而言，项目是“神圣”的，在未得到满意的结果之前，或高层已意识到该创意失败需要终止该项目之前，该项目将会一直存在下去。•2)theoperatingnecessity(经营需要).•Ifafloodisthreateningtheplant,aprojecttobuildaprotectivedikedoesnotrequiremuchformalevaluation.Inotherwords,afirmselectitsprojectmainlyaccordingtotheoperatingnecessity.•3)comparativebenefitmodel(比较利益模型).•Theconceptofcomparativebenefitsiswidelyadoptedforselectiondecisionsonallsor