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经济学外文翻译外文文献英文文献及译文自由贸易中的绿色壁垒ThegreenbarriertofreetradeC.P.ChandrasekharJayatiGhoshAstheMarch31deadlineforcompletingthemodalitiesstageoftheproposednewroundofnegotiationsonglobalagriculturaltradenears,hopesofanagreementareincreasinglywaning.InthiseditionofMacroscan,C.P.ChandrasekharandJayatiGhoshexaminethefactorsandtheplayersconstrainingtherealisationofsuchanagreement.ATTHEENDofthelatestroundofmeetingsoftheagriculturalnegotiationscommitteeoftheWTO,theoptimismthatnegotiatorswouldmeettheMarch31deadlineforworkingoutnumericaltargets,formulasandothermodalitiesthroughwhichcountriescanframetheirliberalisationcommitmentsinanewfull-fledgedroundoftradenegotiationshasalmostdisappeared.Thattargetwasimportantfortworeasons.First,itisnowbecomingclear,thatevenmorethanwastrueduringtheUruguayRound,forginganagreementintheagriculturalareaisboundtoproveextremelydifficult.Progressintheagriculturalnegotiationswaskeytopersuadingtheunconvincedthatanew`DohaRound'oftradenegotiationsisusefulandfeasible.Second,theDohadeclarationmadeagriculturalnegotiationsonepartofa`singleundertaking'tobecompletedbyJanuary1,2005.Thatis,inatake`all-or-nothing'scheme,countrieshadtoarriveat,andbeboundby,agreementsinallareasinwhichnegotiationsweretobeinitiatedinthenewround.Thismeansthatifagreementisnotworkedoutwithregardtoagriculture,therewouldbenochangeinthemultilateraltraderegimegoverningindustry,servicesorrelatedareasandnoprogressinnewareas,suchascompetitionpolicy,foreigninvestmentandpublicprocurement,allofwhicharecrucialtotheeconomicagendaofthedevelopedcountries.Thefactorsmakingagriculturethestickingpointonthisoccasionarenumerous.AsinthelastRound,thereislittleagreementamongthedevelopedcountriesthemselvesontheappropriateshapeoftheglobalagriculturaltraderegime.TherearesubstantialdifferencesintheagendaoftheUS,theEUandthedevelopedcountrieswithintheCairnsgroupofagriculturalexporters.Whentherichandthepowerfuldisagree,aglobalconsensusisnoteasytocomeby.Butthatisnotall.Evenifanagreementisstitchedupbetweentherichnations,throughmanoeuvressuchastheBlairHouseaccord,gettingtherestoftheworldtogoalongwouldbemoredifficultthistime.ThisisbecausetheoutcomesintheagriculturaltradeareasincetheimplementationoftheUruguayRound(UR)AgreementonAgriculture(AoA)beganhavefallenfarshortofexpectations.InthecourseofRound,advocatesoftheURregimehadpromisedglobalproductionadjustmentsthatwouldincreasethevalueofworldagriculturaltradeandanincreaseindevelopingcountryshareofsuchtrade.AsChart1shows,globalproductionvolumescontinuedtoriseafter1994whentheimplementationoftheUruguayRoundbegan,withsignsoftaperingoffonlyin2000and2001.Asiswidelyknown,thisincreaseinproductionoccurredinthedevelopedcountriesaswell.Notsurprisingly,therefore,thevolumeofworldtradecontinuedtoriseaswellafter1994(Chart2).Therealshiftoccurredinagriculturalpriceswhich,aftersomebuoyancybetween1993and1995,havedeclinedthereafter,andparticularlysharplyafter1997.Itisthisdeclineinunitvaluesthatresultedinasituationwherethevalueofworldtradestagnatedandthendeclinedafter1995,whentheimplementationoftheUruguayRoundbegan.AsTable1shows,therewasasharpfallintherateofgrowthofglobalagriculturaltradebetweenthesecondhalfofthe1980sandthe1990s,withthedeclineingrowthinthe1990sbeingduetotheparticularlypoorperformanceduringthe1998to2001period.PricedeclinesandstagnationinagriculturaltradevaluesinthewakeoftheURAgreementonAgriculturewereaccompaniedandpartlyinfluencedbythepersistingregionalisationofworldagriculturaltrade.ThefociofsuchregionalisationwereWesternEuropeandAsia,with32and11percentofglobalagriculturaltradebeingintra-WesternEuropeanandintra-Asiantraderespectively(Chart3).Whatisnoteworthy,however,isthatagriculturalexportsaccountedforamuchhighershareofbothmerchandiseandprimaryproductstradeinNorthAmericaandWesternEurope(besidesLatinAmericaandAfrica)thanitdidforAsia.Thus,despitebeingthedevelopedregionsoftheworld,agriculturalproductionandexportswereimportantinfluencesontheeconomicperformanceofNorthAmericaandWesternEurope.Itis,therefore,notsurprisingthatEuropeiskeenonmaintainingitsagriculturalsectorthroughprotection,whiletheUSiskeenonexpandingitsroleinworldagriculturalmarketsbysubsidisingitsownfarmersandforcingothercountriestoopenuptheirmarkets.TheproblemisthattheUShasbeenmoresuccessfulinprisingopendevelopingcountrymarketsthanthelargeEUmarket.Thus,outof$104billionworthofexportsfromNorthAmericain2001,$34billionwenttoAsiaand$15billiontoLatinAmerica,whereasexportstoEuropeamountedto$14billion.TheCairnsgroupofexportingcountries(Argentina,Australia,Bolivia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,Colombia,CostaRica,Guatemala,Indonesia,Malaysia,NewZealand,Paraguay,thePhilippines,SouthAfrica,ThailandandUruguay),forsomeofwhomatleastagriculturalexportsareextremelyimportant,wantworldmarkettobefreedofprotectionaswellasthesurplusesthatresultfromhugedomesticsupportintheUSandtheEC.Wemustnotethat$35billionofthe$63billionofexportsfromLatinAmericawenttotheUSandtheEU.Moreopenmarketsandlessdomesticsupportinthosedestinationsis,therefore,crucialfortheregion.ThefactthatEuropehasbeensuccessfulinitseffo