CDM林业碳汇市场前景及碳信用的交易策略

4611201011SCIENTIASILVAESINICAEVol.46No.11Nov.2010CDM100083CDM、、、《》CDM。CDM2012。7500tCO2-e2012CDMCDMERPA、、、lCER。S757.4A1001－7488201011－0152－062010－03－082010－04－21。“”“CDM”2007BAC03A04“”70940024“CDM”200800221005。ForestryMarketPerspectiveandTransactionStrategiesforForestryCERsunderCDMWuShuhongBeijingForestryUniversityBeijing100083AbstractInordertostudythetendenciesofthemarketsandthesellersstrategiesforforestryCDMthispaperreviewsstatusofthemarketsforforestryCDMsuchastransactionvolumesforestrycreditpricesexpiryofforestrycreditsthedemandofforestrycreditsandnegotiationprogressinthefuturecommitmentperiodoftheKyotoProtocol.TheresultsshowedthatthemarketsforforestryCDMarestillatanearlystageandhavewidespacetodevelopbeyond2012.ThevolumeoftradeintheCDMmarketcouldreachtomorethan75mofcarboncreditsbefore2012.Theyearof2012wouldbethemostactiveperiodfortradingactivityforforestryCDM.ItissuggestedthatwhensigningERPAdevelopersshouldhavesomeflexibilityastothevolumeofcarboncreditsandthetimeframeofdeliveryandchooseacombinationofup-frontpaymentandpaymentondeliveryinpaymentscheduleandafixedpriceforpricesettingandsellinglCERs.KeywordsCDMforestrycarbonmarketforestrycreditpriceexpiryofforestrycreditreduceemissionstrategiestransactionstrategies1997《》《》1。《》———《》CDM11。CDMCDM。CDMCDM、、CDM。CDM、CDM。CDM2005CDM、2009CDMCDM11CDM2009CDMCDM。CDM、CDM、。CDM、CDM。CDM、CDMCDMCDM。1CDM《》cap-and-tradeproject-basedcarboncredit2。CDMCDMCDM。201034CDM、、20663.879tCO2-eCERs。1341.612tCO2-e。14.6tCO2-e32.8SCDM20081%。2001《UNFCCC》7《》《》1CDM19905%2012《》CDM23tCO2-e。1CDMCDM10.1tCO2-eNeeffetal.20073/42012CDM7500tCO2-e。CDMCDMREPA。20062010CDM1132.6tCO2-e41.62tCO2-e18。CDM210tCO2-e。CDM———biocarbonfundCDM2200tCO2-e。900tCO2-eCDM600tCO2-e。CDMCDM7500tCO2-e90%。CDM。、2012CDM。2CDMCOP9.19“CDM”CDM55CDM1CERs。CERs。201212012CDM。3CDMCDM351463.75～4.35SCDMtCERslCERs。。tCERs5tCERsCDMtCERs。CDMCDMCO2-e3S。CDM、CERs。3.1CDMCDM2lCERstCERs、CERs、EUAsERUslCERstCERsCERsEUAs。。Olschewski2005CERs3%15tCERsCERs14%lCERs25CERs52%9%CERs35%88%Olschewskietal.2005。。3.2。。CERsEUAs。EUAs。CDMCERsCERsCERsCERsEUAs。CDMCERslCERstCERs。CDMCDM、、、、、、CDMCERsCDM。。3.3CERslCERstCERs。tCERslCERsUNFCCC2003lCERstCERs。lCERstCERsLocatellietal.2004。。4CDM4.1CO2《》CDM《》。CDM3。1《》CDM。45111CDM《》、、。2。3。CDM、。、2200CDM。4.2《》1。20054《》《》3.9%JI1.6%CDMCDM1.2%。CO20.6%、30.1%。。CDM。《》2007“”2008“”plangreenCDM2。2006。。。CDM。《》2005EUETS。“”EUAs《》ET40%。60%。、《》。CDMCDM。EUETS2005—20072008—2012CDMCDM。、、。90%。、。5CDM《》CDMCDM。CDMJI、greeninvestmentschemesineasterneuropeGISEE“”CDMCDM。CDM55146、。CDMCDM。EUETSCDM。CDMCDM。CDM。200511《》《UNFCCC》《》《》《》。200915《》CDM1。《UNFCCC》15《》CDMREDD。《》CDM2012CDMCDM。6CDMCDMCDMCDM、ERPA。CDMCDMERPA。1。。2CDMERPA2。CDM2012。10030%37%50%35%5%。30%20%。40%。ERPA30%。3ERPAEUA2。EUA。《》CDM。。4lCERs919“CDM65111CDM”lCERslCERstCERs1tCERs51lCERs。.2005..27212－16..2009..745－47..2009.CDM.114－18.LocatelliBPedroniL.2004.AccountingmethodsforcarboncreditsimpactsontheminimumareaofforestryprojectsundertheCleanDevelopmentMechanism.ClimatePolicy42193－204.NeeffTHendersS.2007.GuidebooktomarketsandcommercializationofforestryCDMprojects.TheTropicalAgriculturalResearchandHigherEducationCenterCATIETurrialbaCostaRica19－20.OlschewskiRBenitezP.2005.SecondaryforestsastemporarycarbonsinksTheeconomicimpactofaccountingmethodsonreforestationprojectsinthetropics.EcologicalEconomics553380－394.751