生产与运作管理授课教案5

15()DemandManagementandAggregatePlanning1.1/(ProductionPlanningandControlSystem,PPC)/“”1(DemandManagement)2InventorystatusdataBillofMaterialResourcePlanningProductionPlanningDemandManagementMasterProductionSchedulingDetailedMaterialsRequirementplanningTime-phasedrequirementPlanningMaterialandCapacityPlanningVenderSystemsShop-floorsystems1.2„Speedtocompliance„Lowerinventory„Cross-docking„Value-addedservices„HighernumberofSKUs„Direct-to-consumer„Configure-to-order„Customer/retailersatisfaction„Operationalproductivity„Transportationefficiency„Improvedin-stockpositions„Lowerinventory„FlexiblebusinesspracticesCustomerRequirementsCustomerRequirementsSupplierRequirementsSupplierRequirementsImperfectInformation3DemandManagementA:FinishedGoodsB(4)C(2)D(2)E(1)D(3)F(2):RawMaterials,Componentparts,Sub-assemblies,etc.:Whatafirmcandotomanageit.•.•.41.3(DemandManagement)•,.••,,2.1•ProductionPlanning,,··,·,.25•MPSMPSMTSATOMTO–MTSMPS–ATO(Assembly-to-order)–MTOMPS•MPS(Timefence)Make-to-StockAssembly-to-OrderMake-to-Order()()62.2••MTS•ATO•MTO2.3:7••••“7×24”•––()––––3(DemandForecasting)3.1••(Businessforecasting)•83.2··(qualitativemethod).DelphimethodExecutiveOpinionsSalesForceCompositeCustomerSurveys3.3(quantitativemethod)(Forecastingbasedontimeseriesdata)T:9•–•–1(MovingAverage)(SimpleMovingAverage)i-----”Age”ofthedata,n----numberofperiodinmovingaverage,Ai----Actualvaluein“age”i.nA+...+A+A+A=Fn-t3-t2-t1-tt10•:36?WeekDemand165026783720478558596920785087589892109201178912844:WeekDemand3-Week6-Week1650267837204785682.675859727.676920788.007850854.67768.678758876.33802.009892842.67815.3310920833.33844.0011789856.67866.5012844867.00854.83F4=(720+678+650)/3=682.67F7=(920+859+785+720+678+650)/6=768.6711n=3,n=6nnnn5006007008009001000123456789101112WeekDemandDemand3-Week6-Week2(Exponentialsmoothing)FFAFtttt=+−−−−111α()Ft----tFt-1----t-1At-1----t-1α----4240α=0.10,FFAFtttt=+−=+−=−−−111420104042418α().().12•Question:Giventhefollowingweeklydemanddata,whataretheexponentialsmoothingforecastsforperiods2-10usingα=0.10andα=0.60?•AssumeF1=D1(atstartup)WeekDemand18202775368046555750680277988689977510Answer:Therespectivealphascolumnsdenotetheforecastvalues.Notethatyoucanonlyforecastaheadonetimeperiodintothefuture.WeekDemand0.10.61820820.00820.002775820.00820.003680815.50820.004655801.95817.305750787.26808.096802783.53795.597798785.38788.358689786.64786.579775776.88786.6110776.69780.7713ααα50060070080090012345678910WeekDemandDemand0.10.63.4------(Seasonalvariations)(AdditiveModel)(Multiplicativemodel)14199719981999()()1997130022003220453019981520242034004700Step1:Tt=170+55*t15Step2:/971234300200220530225280335390(300/225)=1.330.710.661.36(1.33+1.17)/2=1.25(0.71+0.84)/2=0.789812345204204007004455005556101.170.840.721.15(0.66+0.72)/2=0.69(1.36+1.15)/2=1.25Step3:199919991:(170+559)1.25=8312:(170+5510)0.78=5623:(170+5511)0.69=5354:(170+5512)1.25=10384(AccuracyandControlofForecasts)4.(Measurementofforecasterror)MADAFntt=−∑||MSEAFntt=−∑()216nFAMFEtt∑−=)(MADMSEMFE4.2(MonitoringForecasting)(Trackingsignal)Trackingsignal=(Actual-Forecast)∑MADMAD±10.79857.048±21.59688.946±32.39498.334173.3066.740050220501050100062.407035090170901090100051.20652604080-40960100041.6473.32201001201001100100030.3360120702070107010002-1.00505050-50-5095010001TSMAD∑|A-F||A-F|∑(A-F)3MAD2MAD1MADTS0-1MAD-2MAD-3MAD55.1:•:—————————•(35)(1)(,,)185.21),,,..,,,2)(),,.,:5.31),(),,,(Measureofcapacity),()//////,/192)(measuresofcapacity),,,.,(Availabilityofoutput)••200×1.6=3208/5=1.68200D200×0.4=802/5=0.42200C200×2=40010/5=210200B200×1=2005/5=15200A20•1tj0.258200D0.252200C0.2510200B0.255200A25.6)8800200()2800200()10800200()5800200()(=×+×+×+×==∑∑iiijtQQt2jetSFM⋅=Fe——/S——3)(CapacityFlexibility)(1)(2)(FlexiblePlant))(zero-changeover-time)(3)(FlexibleProcesses)()(4)(FlexibleWorkers)214)––5000012344500065000550003500066.1,,,.6.2(DemandandCapacity),,,,22///6.3(BasicStrategyforMeetingUnevenDemand),,,,,,,,,,23–(Levelcapacitystrategy)–(Chasedemandstrategy)–6.4ƒƒ(,,)ƒƒ(unitcost)ƒƒ,,,246.5100/1.5/·,5//,,20/,200/,250/,5/,4/,6/,400,,,25%1180022215001931100214900215110022616002025(1)(2)(3)0.25(2)(4)(2)+(3)-(1)(5)(1)+(4)-(2)14001800450185045024501500375142537533751100275100027542759002258502255225110027511502756275160040017254008000(1)(2)(1)5(3)(4)(2)(3)(5)(6)(5)200(7)(8)(7)250(9)(2)4118509250176530---37000214257125152470061500285003100050001683000174250200004850425016825005125017000511505750176338160000230006172586251605421420000345005800700016000026(40)(1)(2)(3)(2)5(4)(5)(1)+(3)-(4)(6)(7)(6)5(8)(9)(5)-(8)(10)(11)1400704014081800800450002816028608012161500-276276138037500243203-276672013441100-323216027500268804-326720134490041200225187281268805412704014081100720002754456672816067206400128016004000040000256001540948160000290031803540397033202760222221232021654321••-4/-27Cp——;Cp=0/Cw——;Cw=120/-CH——;CH=450/CL——;CL=600/CI——CI=5/.P——W——H——L——I——:MIN=2520*W1+2400*W2+2760*W3+2520*W4+2640*W5+2640*W6+450*H1+450*H2+450*H3+450*H4+450*H5+450*H6+600*L1+600*L2+600*L3+600*L4+600*L5+600*L6+5*I1+5*I2+5*I3+5*I4+5*I5+5*I6;1