生产运作管理

310027E-mail:[e-mail]@zju.edu.cn0-2„„Stevenson,W.J.2000„22002„2004„„„HarvardBusinessReview„SloanManagementReview„InternationalJournalofProductionResearch„InternationalJournalofOperations&ProductionManagement„„„APICS„[e-mail]0-3„„„„„„„MRP,MRPII,ERP,JIT„„„[e-mail]0-4„10%„30%„[e-mail]0-5„„„57„„[e-mail]1-1„„„„[e-mail]1-2„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„[e-mail]1-3„Production&OperationsManagement„Æ[e-mail]1-4„vs„[e-mail][e-mail]1-6„„„„„„„„„„„[e-mail]1-7„„ÆƄValue-added„[e-mail][e-mail]1-9„„„„„„„„„„„„„[e-mail]1-10„PERT/CPM„Pareto„vs„TheoryofConstraints„[e-mail]1-11„FrederickTaylor,HenryGantt,HenryFord„LillianGilbreth,EltonMayo,AbrahamMaslow,DouglasMcGregorXY,WilliamOuchiZ„„IT,Globalization,Agilemanufacturing,Leanproduction,BPR,OPT,ERP,SCM,E-Business…[e-mail]1-12Q&[e-mail]1-13„„„[e-mail]1-14„„„„[e-mail]1-15„OptimizedProductionTechnology,[e-mail]1-16„MichaelPorter1997„GeorgeStalk,Time–Thenextsourceofcompetitiveadvantage.HarvardBusinessReview,[e-mail]1-17„„„„[e-mail]1-18„„„[e-mail]1-19„„„„[e-mail]1-20„[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]1-2312IBM,Apple,Motorola,Volvo,Coca-Cola3456UPS,McDonald’s,[e-mail]1-24„„„„„„„„[e-mail]1-25FmFbQ*[e-mail]1-26/[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]1-29DELLDELLR&DOEMSCMB2C„J.Magretta.ThePowerofVirtualIntegration:anInterviewwithDellComputer’sMichaelDell,HarvardBusinessReview,76(2):73-84,[e-mail]1-30„“ÆÆ”„„„[e-mail]1-31Q&[e-mail]2-1„„„„[e-mail]2-2„„„„„„„[e-mail]2-3„„„„[e-mail]2-4„„„„„„[e-mail]2-5„„„„„„Delphi„„„[e-mail]2-6„„„„„[e-mail]2-7„„yt=a+bt„„„„[e-mail]2-8„Ft=At-1„Ft=At-k„[e-mail]2-9„6142240343440541F6=(43+40+41)/3=41.33F6=(40+43+40+41)/4=41„∑−−==[e-mail]2-10„61422403430.24400.35410.5„„F6=0.541+0.340+0.243=[e-mail]2-11„α„Ft=Ft-1+α(At-1-Ft-1)„Ft=(1-α)Ft-1+αAt-1„[e-mail]2-12α0.1142240343440541639746844942-241.81.241.92-1.9241.73-0.7341.66-2.6641.394.6141.852.1542.07FtF2=A1F3=(1-α)A1+αA2F4=(1-α)2A1+(1-α)αA2+αA3…………Ft=(1-α)t-2A1+(1-α)t-3αA2+…+α[e-mail]2-13+=×=[e-mail]2-14„„„[e-mail]2-15/=267375482598503/7=71.8698/71.86=1.36680496/7=70.8680/70.86=1.27736494/7=70.5736/70.57=0.51155503497/7=71.0055/71.00=0.77260496498/7=71.1460/71.14=0.84373494494/7=70.5773/70.57=[e-mail]2-16„y=a+bx„y=c0+c1x1+c2x2+…[e-mail]2-17„et=At–Ft„MAD=Σ|At-Ft|/n„MSE=Σ(At-Ft)2/[e-mail]2-18„/=Σ(At-Ft)/MAD„MADt=Σkt=1|ek|/t=(MADt-1×(t-1)+|et|)/t=t-1|e|+(1-t-1)MADt-1„MADt=α|et|+(1-α)MADt-1„[e-mail]2-19„„„95%2SD99.7%3SD1)(2−−=∑[e-mail]2-20tAtFt147432514435450455515495464649738468324492535102426113025123532MAD5.7506.6005.6805.5445.035TS-1.39-2.73-3.52-2.71-2.38SD=6.91eΣeΣ|e|47[e-mail][e-mail]2-22„mF1…Fm„Ft=w1F1t+w2F2t+…+wmFmt0wi1w1+w2+…+wm=1„Wiik=+++−−−−σσσσ[e-mail]2-2301002003004005006007008001988198919901991[e-mail]2-24Gom[e-mail]2-25010000020000030000040000050[e-mail]3-1„„„„„„„[e-mail]3-2„NPDSolutions()[e-mail]3-31.„„„„[e-mail]3-4„„„„„[e-mail]3-5„„„„[e-mail]3-6„DesignforManufacturing„DesignforAssembling„DesignforRecycling„DesignforDissembling„[e-mail]3-7TaguchiMethodTaguchiMethod„„„DesignofExperiment(DOE)„RossPJ.TaguchiTechniquesforQualityEngineering,2ndEdition.McGraw-Hill,1996.L=k(y-T)[e-mail]3-8„„FaultTreeAnalysis,FTAFaultTreeAnalysis,[e-mail]3-9„[e-mail]3-112.„„[e-mail]3-12„Cycletime„Idletime„Balance„Leadtime„Lotsize/batchsize„[e-mail]3-13„[e-mail]3-14„Capacity„„[e-mail]3-15„Leadtime„306090120150180210210180150120906030„[e-mail]3-16„Lotsize/batchsize„Setuptime„[e-mail]3-17//[e-mail]3-18„„5W1H„VA/NVA„„[e-mail]3-19VA/NVAVA/NVA„VA„NVA„[e-mail]3-20BPRBPR„Hammer&Champy1993„BPR•[e-mail]3-21BPRBPR„„„„„„[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]3-243.„„„[e-mail]3-25„„[e-mail]3-26„/302480%„[e-mail]3-27„„[e-mail]3-2810.40.62223000270000270000200000242