第三方物流发展趋势及运作模式

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4/22/2008CopyrightBy1ThirdPartyLogistics4/22/2008CopyrightBy2Content4/22/2008CopyrightBy34/22/2008CopyrightBy4CASS/ProLogis12thannualStateofLogisticsReport4/22/2008CopyrightBy5:(1),,,:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysisUS$Bn=US$3,837Bn$304Bn$2,204Bn$55Bn$20Bn$1,102Bn$152BnUS$Bn:-1.4%:2.6%:4.0%91511021396941107312528409561092729706649199620002006E3,4243,8374,389CAGR=2.3%CAGR=2.8%CAGR2000-20062.2%2.3%4/22/2008CopyrightBy6200536,4463,700•••••2000200520104/22/2008CopyrightBy7流场较穏计零行%--200067.9%60.7%84.3%80.0%70.4%68.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%4/22/2008CopyrightBy8(2001-2006)4/22/2008CopyrightBy90481216202480/2066%($15,500M)at20%of(11)80%($19,000M)35%(19)20%35%100%=54-InternationalDataCorporation(IDC)2000“Who’sWhoinLogistics?,”Armstrong’sGuidetoThirdPartyProviders,FifthEdition,19985080%50%(25)4/22/2008CopyrightBy10TargetCompanyAcquirerAsset-BasedTargetCompany?AcquisitionDatePurchasePriceTargetCompanyYearlyRevenueTargetCompanyEBITorEBITDA*EBITorEBITDA*MultiplierMarkVIIOcean/MSAS4No8/4/199922772517.612.9AmericanBackhaulersCHRobinsonNo12/1999100cash/36stock28013.010.5OceanGroup¹NFC4Yes4/20002,2005,600143.815.3CTILogistxTPGNo9/30/200065046034.019.1CircleInternationalEGLNo11/1/200054323.243.112.6FXCoughlinExel5No3/2001140/130deferred480³26.710.1FritzUPSNo5/24/20014371,60023.019.3USCOKuehne+NagelNo7/23/200130024523.113.0ArnoldIndustriesArnoldManagementTeam²Yes12/3/2001105607.414.2HaysLogistics(ARCLogistics)PlatinumEquity6Yes2/4/20041791,45011.116.1MenloForwardingUPSYes8/9/2004150cash/110long-termdebt1,9000.00.0Tibbett&BrittenExel5Yes12/20045982,60087.9*6.8*GeoLogisticsPWCLogisticsNo7/15/20054541,61032.014.1ExelDeutschePostYes9/19/20056,66013,228628.010.6ACRLogisticsKuehne&NagelYes10/17/20055881,44084.0*7.0*BaxGlobalDeutscheBahnYes11/7/20051,2102,734113.010.71.OceanPLCandNFCmergedtobecomeExelplc.2.RoadwayboughtArnoldIndustrieswhichincludedanLTLcarrier(NewPenn)andTLcarrier(ArnoldTransportation)for$596.Itisnowownedbyapriv3.GrossRevenue/Turnover.4.NowownedbyExel/DeutschePost5.NowownedbyDeutschePost6.Nowownedbyaprivateholdingcompany.*EBITDA**P/EratiosfortheacquistionanalysisarecalculatedbydividingtheAverageAnnualStockPricebyEBITperShare.Note:Traditionalpurchasemultipliersare5-6timesEBITDAforasset-basedcompaniesand10-12timesEBIT.Sources:GregBurns,J.P.Morgan;AckermanNewsletter;EricWolfe,BearStearns;Armstrong&Associates,Inc.($Millions)4/22/2008CopyrightBy11012345678910111213141516171819202122-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415161718192021≥22After-TaxNetIncomePercentageHighProfitHighGrowthLowProfitLowGrowthDHLAPLTLCExpeditorsLandstarCHRobinsonCardinalNFIUTiCatEGLWernerKuehne&NagelGencoBAXNALMeridianTNTPenskeDSCMenloHubArnoldJBHuntKencoRyderPacerExelSwiftSchneiderUPSTMVAWDDCC=DedicatedContractCarriageNetRevenueGrowthPercentageNFIEGLFedExTransplaceAmericoldTLC4/22/2008CopyrightBy12•••••••••••••••••••••TCL••••APL•HTB•Maersk•Panalpina•Exel•Danzas(DHL)•ITOCHU•Mitsui•Riweco•TNT•Schenker•FedEx•UPS•DHL•Menlo•CATlogistics•Baxglobal•KWE4/22/2008CopyrightBy132286522642792643492720493537684419934751645320955508705806069357244/22/2008CopyrightBy142%7%7%11%11%25%30%32%32%32%41%41%50%55%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%///4/22/2008CopyrightBy1520%28%48%4%29%29%29%14%4/22/2008CopyrightBy16(SRM)(MerchandiseandPromotionPlanning,Fulfillment)(Inventory,MasterandDistributionPlanning)4/22/2008CopyrightBy17ConsolidationPre-assemblySequencingJITKittingL/CL/CEDIVMIECRMRPsystemsRFsystemsWMSDRPsystemsPOD4/22/2008CopyrightBy184/22/2008CopyrightBy19/4/22/2008CopyrightBy20Cat4/22/2008CopyrightBy21CAT13108653454/22/2008CopyrightBy22••1234••••••4/22/2008CopyrightBy23

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