不确定环境下战略期权对企业进入新行业决策的影响

上海交通大学硕士学位论文不确定环境下战略期权对企业进入新行业决策的影响姓名：黄仁懿申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：黄丹20070101USTUDYONAFFECTIONOFSTRATEGICOPTIONONENTERDECISIONUNDERUNCERTAINENVIRONMENTAbstractThisarticleanalyzeenterpriseenteringnewindustryunderwavedenvironmentfromoptionperspective.Inthispaper,Iconsidertheoptionopportunityanditsvalueoriginwhencompanymakestheirdiversificationdecisionandtheaffectionofoptionvaluetodecisionmakingwhenthecompanyentersanewindustry.Imakedemonstratedresearchonwhetheroptionvalueplaysanimportantpartwhencompanymakestheirdiversificationdecisioninthispaper.Theoryanddemonstrationinthispaperofferrealisticfeedbackandreferenceforstrategictheory,whichishelpfulforentrepreneurtodostrategicmanagement.Thecreationsinthispaperisasfollows:1.Analyzethespecialpositionofstrategicoptioninstrategictheory.Strategymanagementiscomplexundercomplexenvironment;wedefinestrategyoptionfirstlyandthenanalyzethedifferenceandrelationshipbetweenstrategicoptionswithothertheories.2.Dodemonstratedresearchondiversificationstrategyfordomesticcompaniesandanalyzethefactorsthataffectthedecision-making.Atpresentdomesticresearchonoptionfocusontheoryspreadandsubjectoptionfield,litterresearchfocusonrealisticoperation.Theoryneedstobetestedcarefully,whichisthereasonwhywedothisresearch.3.Comparedwithoverseasresearch,weanalyzetheinfluencingfactorswithindifferentmarketenvironment,differentindustryanddifferentcompanylevel.KEYWORDS:StrategicOption,Enter,Uncertainty,Empirical20071142007114200711431.1NPVs0iii4DDiiiDixitandPindyckivvviKesterviiviiiix51.2xxixiixiiixivxii1.36SPSS1-11-1Figure1-1ResearchFlowChart1.4xivKulatilakaPerottixivUT.B.FoltaJ.P.O’BrienviU7U1-2Figure1-2FrameworkoftheStudy81.59HughCourtneyJaneKirklandPatrickVigueriexv2.11.2062603062102-1Figure2-1OptionValueDCF2.MarthaAmram&NalinKulatilakaxvi11:3.MarthaAmram&NalinKulatilakaxviiDisciplinedDecisions–AligningStrategywiththeFinancialMarketsTimothyA.Luehrmanxviii122-1Table2-1OptionComparative1.2.3.BruceKogutAshokAbbott&KunalBanerjiTimothyB.FoltaandJonathanP.o’BrienBruceKogutxixJointventuresandtheoptiontoexpandandacquire13Knight(1921)CyertandMarch(1963)AshokAbbott&KunalBanerjixxTimothyB.FoltaandJonathanP.o’Brienxviii1.2.3.2.22.2.19014xxi;xxii1.2.3.4.5.6.7.2.2.2BurgelmanGrovexxiii151.212.3.;4.2.2.3xxiv;R&D162.2.4Quinnxxvxxvi2.31.2.3.174.2-2Figure2-2Strategicstructureunderuncertaintyenvironment183.1501.(1)(2)(3)192.(1)(2)(3)(4):203.220043.2.11.GDP2.3.4.215.——6.7.8.9.2210.11.3.2.21.2.3-1Figure3-1Productionlifecyclecurve233.33.3.13-2Figure3-2HypothesisfigureofBenefitwavingdistribution241.2.3.4.3.3.2R&D:Internet60%-99%xxvii253.3.33-3-Figure3-3Strategicvalue-timeAlexanderB.vanPuttenIanC.MacMillanxxviiiDCF263-1Table3-1StrategicoptionmatrixesAiBiCiDiVoption1=5111()iiiiiABαβ=×⊕×∑⊕Voption2=5221()iiiiiCDαβ=×⊕×∑⊕Voption1Voption2jijijiji=jiji3.4(option1)(option2)A111B111C121D121A212B212C222D222A313B313C323D323A414B414C424D4245A515B515C525D525………………………27xxix(C+R)(P-C)/Ir()AbelDixitEberlyPindyckxxxQ28McDonaldandSiegelxiii(NetPresentValue)NPVJamesTobinxxxiQQQ1;Q1QxxxiiMcDonaldandSiegelxiii()2-3DixitandPindyckxxxiiiMcDonaldandSiegel()ArrowxxxivRichardHartmanxxxvRobertPindyck(1982)29HartmanPindyckPindyck(Stochasticspecification)Hartmanxxxv(discrete-time)Pindyck(continuous-time)AbelxxxviPindyckRobertsWertzman(1981)Bar-IlanStrange(1992)Stiglitzweiss(1981)()xxix;Pindyck(1993)Hartman(19721976)Abel(1983):Pindyck(1988)Bertola(1998)Caballeroxxxvii30Kulatilaka&PerottiTimothyB.Folta&JonathanP.O’Brien314.14.1.1V=NPV+R+G-X-D04-1NPVRGDXKulatilakaPerotti199832H1:H2:4.1.2H3H4H5H64.1.3TimothyB.FOLTA&JonathanP.O’brien33H7H8:4.24.2.12001-2005104-1Table4-1Independentvariablecoding104.2.2.1.Gort(1962)SICSIC4SIC342.3.HerfindahlMcVey(1972)HerfindahlHerfindahlHerfindahl21niiHIP==∑4-2HI-HerfindahliPin4.(Berry1975;JacqueminBerry1979;Palepu1985):1ln(1/)niiiDTPP==∑4-3iP=in=1.Ansoff(1957)R&DPenrose(1959)2.Wrigley(1970)S():(S95%)(70%S95%)(S70%)((S70%)3.Rumelt(1974)Wrigley(1970)35Herfindahl.TimothyB.Folta&JonathanP.O’Brien2004Episcopos1995Kulatilaka&Perotti1998Price1995TimothyB.Folta&JonathanP.O’BrienTimothyB.Folta&JonathanP.O’BrienGARCHBollerslev1986TimothyB.Folta&JonathanP.O’Brien(2004)GARCHGARCHDelphi20.Arrow(1968)36111nni=∑2/.market-to-bookvalue/Myers1997)43000900GDP-./11nin=∑4-4../=4-5374.34.3.1A2001-20062001-20061162001-2006672000112006;SST:;200512312001-20064.3.14-2Table4-2StylebookindustrytableC48C41C4C43384-2Table4-2StylebookindustrytableJJ01B03B07BB01*()H11HH21K30K34K32KK39E05EE01C51C5C55C13C1C14D\D01II21LL99F21FF1101G81GG87C81C8C85C7505C71C7320C05C0C01/C6C67A01AA05A*****C35C3C31C2C2539”*”Wind∑==niin114-6DelphiX1X2X3X4Xn-1Xn214nxx+=4-74.3.31998-20064.3ProbitLogisticLogisticLogisticBinaryLogisticMultinominalLogistic40LogisticY101x2x3x…kxyn1ix2ix…ikxiy()ipyiy1(...)01122(...)011221()xxxiikikxxxiikikeiepyββββββββ+++++++++=4-8logistic011221ln()...pkkpxxxββββε−=+++++4-91x2x3x…kxSPSS10.0Logistic(ML)SPSSE-viewsEXCEL4.44.4.14..4.1.1SPSSlogistic4-3Table4-3AveragevalueandstandarddeviationtableMeanStd.DeviationN0.654388180.2346953761853.493500123.9322754901