中国城市空气质量管理综合战略研究

中国城市空气质量管理综合战略研究StrategiesApproachIntegratedUrbanAirQualitywithConcernGlobalClimateChangeinChinaWB-ItalianTrustFundProjectChineseResearchAcademyofEnvironmentalSciences2006年1月主要内容(Outlines):一、研究背景Background二、研究目标Objectives三、研究内容Contents四、时间安排TimeSchedule五、预期成果ExpectedOutcome六、经费预算Budgets一、研究背景Background城市是人类政治、经济和文化活动的中心。改革开放以来，我国的城市建设得到快速发展，城市数量已达到660多座，城市化率由不足20%增长到41.7%。Chinesecitiesexpendedsignificantly.2004年监测的342个城市中，仅有132个城市达到国家环境空气质量二级标准（居住区标准），占38.6%。In2004,theurbanairqualityof38.6%ofthemonitoredcities(342cities)couldmeetthesecondnationalstandardofambientairquality.温室气体的排放是空气污染的一个重要方面，它可以导致全球气候变化，从而人类的产生不良影响。Greenhousegasemissionisoneoftheimportantaspectsofairpollutionintheworld.我国政府高度重视城市空气质量问题的重要性和严重性，采取了积极的控制措施，包括：改善能源结构、污染源外迁、重点污染源末端治理、热电联产等。Chinesegovernmenthasbeenpayingalotofattentiontotheurbanairqualityissue.案例北京CasestudyBeijing天然气等清洁能源的使用比例不断提高；(Increasingpercentageofcleanenergy)污染源向市区外迁移，充分利用郊区巨大的环境容量，四环路内已没有大型污染源；(pollutionsourcerelocation)推广热电联产(Closureofsmallcoalfacilitiesandcogenerationadditions)对于发电厂、热源厂、化工厂等重点污染源采取脱硫、脱硝、除尘等严格的末端治理措施。(End-of–pipe)清洁能源供应与空气污染物浓度年度变化情况示意图051015202530199920002001200220032004年度亿立方米00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.2毫克/立方米天然气用量二氧化硫浓度二氧化氮浓度可吸入颗粒物浓度AirqualityinChanging0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.7019881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004(mg/m3)PM10SO2NO2PM10standardSO2standardNO2standardTrendsofconcentrationsforPM10,SO2andNO2intheurbanareaEffectivemeasurestoameliorateairqualityidentifiedSwitchingcoaltocleanenergy:naturalgas,LPG,electricity,etc.Inparticular,CBM(coal-bedmethane)switchingincoal-richcities.Cogenerationexpansiontoreplacesmall-sizecoalfacilitiesEnergyefficiencythroughrelocationofurbansources(CapitalSteelCorporationRelocation)EmergingissuestoaddressairpollutionincitiesNonationalguidelinesforvariousclassifiedcitiestostipulatestrategiesofairqualityimprovementLackoffast-respondingmodeltotranslateemissionintoexposure,resultingrule-of-thumbprevailingInsufficientretrospectiveassessmentonvariousstrategiestoaddressairpollutionCo-benefitsofGHGemissionsreductionunaccountedfromameliorationofairquality(actlocallybutdon’tthinkglobally)大多数地方城市根据自身特点采取了空气污染治理措施，其中一些城市已经应用了城市空气质量模式和预报模式，如：用于大气污染物问题控制的箱模式、工业源复合模式、光化学模式和线源模式等。这些模式多是基于国外城市的大气质量监测基础数据和预测工作经验建立起来的，而我国许多城市的自然条件及污染特征与模式原出国城市都可能存在较大的差异。Mostcitieshastakenrelevantcontrolmeasurestosolvetheurbanairpollution,andsomeofthemhaveusedtheurbanairqualitymodelandpredictionmodel,suchasboxmodel,industrialsourcecomplexmodel,photochemicalmodelandlinesourcemodel,andsoon.Mostofsuchmodelsweresetupbasedontheairqualitydataandpredictionexperiencesofoverseascities,andthenaturalconditionsandpollutioncharactersofmanyChinesecitiesaredifferentfromthosecitieswherethemodelsappliedin.Forexample,urbanairpollutionofdevelopedcountriesmainlyfromvehicleemission,butmosturbanairpollutioninChinaisattributedtothecoalburning,orthemixingpollutionofcoalburningandvehicleemission.各种减排方案分析研究，成本-效能分析开展的还不够充分。没有适当的方法可以将空气污染造成的所有损失费用和控制空气污染物所需的费用进行量化，并通过比较选择出一项或多项污染损失和控制费用之和最小的污染控制方案为实施方案。Thestudyandanalysisofemissionreductionandcost-efficiencyprogramhasnotbeencompletedinChina.实施的多种空气质量控制措施必定可以削减温室气体的排放量，但尚未进行定量的研究(manycountermeasurestoaddressurbanairpollutionsimultaneouslybringGHGemissionreduction,butbarelyhavebeenquantitativelyaccounted)二、研究目标StudyObjectives本项目针对中国城市空气质量管理现状与问题，通过对典型城市的案例研究，弄清中国代表性典型城市环境现状与存在的问题，以世行开发的空气质量管理模型为技术手段,提出国家改善空气质量技术政策NationalTechnicalPolicies(guidelines)forVariousClassifiedCitiestoAddressAirPollutionwillbeformed,onbasisofanalysisonbackgroundofclassifiedcitiesthroughcasestudiesbymeansoftheWorldBankdevelopedmodelentitled“SmallModelsforBigProblemsIntegratedAirQualityManagement”建立大气污染物排放与环境空气质量之间的关系、分析各种（类）污染源对大气污染物浓度的贡献；Toexploretherelationshiptranslatingsourceemissionsintoexposure建立大气污染控制措施费用－效益分析方法，通过整体优化确定城市达到环境质量保护目标投资费用最小的组合方案；Todeterminethemethodologyofcost-benefitonvariousprogramstoaddressairpollutionofclassifiedcities建立大气污染控制措施与温室气体效果关系的计算方法。ToexplorethemethodologyofGHGemissionreductionofairqualityamelioration确立改善空气质量和减少温室气体排放的技术措施/项目ToidentifyprojectstoreducepollutantsandGHGemissions三、研究内容(Researchcontents)中国典型城市污染现状评估(Evaluationonairpollutionatcitylevel)解决空气污染有效政策和措施的评估(Assessmentoneffectiveregulationsandmeasurestoimproveairqualityinselectedcities)案例研究(Casestudyonthreetypicalcities)筛选和确认有利于解决空气污染和减少温室气体排放的技术(Screeningandidentificationofmeasures/projectstoreducepollutantsandGHGemissions)提出国家解决城市空气污染技术政策(Formingnationaltechnicalpoliciestoameliorateairqualityforvariousclassifiedpolicies)能力建设(Capacitybuildingandtraining)中国典型城市污染现状评估Evaluationonairpollutionatcitylevel利用监测数据，对全国600多个城市分类，分析各类型城市污染变化趋势Classifyingmorethan600citiesintovarioustypes,analyzingonthepollutiontrends,onbasisofmonitoreddata.Urbanairqualitynon-attainmentremains,severityofhighpollutedcitydecreased,butconcentrationinattainmentcityincreasedAmbientSO2concentrationchange0.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.110.120.130.140.150.160.170.180.190.200.210.220.230.240.250510152025303540