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南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文信阳市产业结构分析与调整策略研究姓名：宣茂前申请学位级别：硕士专业：行政管理指导教师：刘思峰20070301i123,-ii-ABSTRACTThestrategiesofscientificdevelopmentandharmoniousdevelopmentofPPCandeconomicdevelopmentofHenanprovincehasbeenjustimplemented,whicharetheveryrarehistoricalopportunityfordevelopingXinyang.However,economicdevelopmentandbackwardindustrialstructurethattheseveryrarehistoricalopportunitieslaggedbehindtoXinyanghaveproposedtheseverechallenge.So,itisnecessarytocarryonfurtherinvestigationontheindustryofXinyangandindustrialstructure,Regardscientificdevelopmentviewasguidelines,regardrealizingtheharmoniousdevelopmentofeconomyandthesociety,nature,humanasthegoal,seekthecountermeasure,thereisnewrapiddevelopmentunderthesehistoricalopportunitiestopromotetheeconomyofXinyang.ThistexttakestherelatedtheoriesofindustrialstructureasfoundationtomakeuseofgraysystemtheoriestowardsbelievingindustrialstructureinXinyangofbasicallyanalyzingisingpremise,mainly,inquiryintothepointoftheadjustmentofindustrialstructureinXinyang,tocarryoutthestrategiesandpointthedirection.TheseareFirstthetextusesthemodeloforderdegreeofindustrialstructure,usingthestructureofstandardindustrialstructureintheworld,the11thfive-year-planindustrialstructureofXinyangandspeedwaymodelastargetstructurerespectivelytomakeorderdegreeanalysisofindustrialstructureinXinyang.AndpointsouttheindustrialstructureoftheXinyangisbeingdeviatethetargetstructuregradually,andalsoanalysesit'sthereason;ThistextstillmakesuseofstandardstructuretoanalyzetheheightofproductionvaluestructureandtheheightoftheemploymentstructureofXinyanginthemeantime.Secondthistextpassestosetupindexsystemthatpredominateindustry'schoice,makinguseofgraygatheringmodel,sievingthemedicinemanufacturing,livestockproductmanufacturingandbuildingmaterialsindustryasthepredominantindustryofXinyang,alsopointsthedirectionoftheadjustment.ThirdthistextmakesuseofgrayAHPmodel,designinganindustrialstructure,industryorganization,theindustrytechnique,industrysetfourindexsignsystemsoflevels,toevaluateandanalyzetheresultofpolicyofpredominantindustryofXinyangandpointsoutitsresultstillbelongstogoodlayer.Onthisfoundation,putforwardasuggestionofthepredominantindustrypolicyXinyang.iiiKeywords:Xinyang,Greysystemtheory,AnalysisofindustrialstructureLeadingindustry,Adjustingstrategies,()11.11.1.119782004:71.1%GDP21.87%[1]2000-20049.68%5.72%2004GDP6661;GDP109716.47%827802004GDP433.331.2:38.8:30.0GDP70%60%200447.9%60.0%-2-2004GDP30.0%[2][3][4]20101.1.21.231.1-4-2.12.1.1[5]:,2.1.2[6]52.22.2.118412.2.2205017PettyClark’slaw[7]2.2.320%10%-6-2.2.4HH919601980[8]2.12.1(1982)1360-7302730-146031460-291042910-5460565460-87408740-131002.2.572.3[9]2.3.1[10]2.2202.2181134.022.143.1183944.624.231.219076.438.954.7192911.241.347.519244.253.242.619534.345.350.419653.444.152.519753.531.964.619852.036.062.019852.031.067.0188625.046.228.8188365.534.419638.451.040.6193323.376.319745.143.351.1195416.183.919854.034.062.0196511.235.853.019853.041.056.0:[]:[]:-8-2.3.219552.3[11]2.31955-197619551960196519701976/41.258.840.759.337.063.034.465.632.367.749.350.741.958.136.064.033.067.028.271.836.563.538.062.035.264.833.067.032.467.667.332.762.537.556.843.252.847.248.951.169.031.061.638.457.942.155.045.057.247.852.347.747.752.342.557.5:2.3.3[12]2.3.4[13]9-10-,18915,780,,80003.11919783.1.120[14](1)“”(2)200310.7(3)1952198011198119903.1.22002-20053.12002-2005200225241333.520032793963252004312388300200531438530.120022005H.GDP19804.920051373,1771,9091-12-1GDP=GDPGDP×××(2002-20053.23.22002-200520022003200420052.112.242.532.412002-20052002-200420050.8-0.73.1133.12002-2005220043.5%0.18-10%3.2[16][17]1-14-11((1),(2),,())iiiiXxxxn=0()()(1),iiixkxkx=−1,2,,kn=0000((1),(2),,())iiiiXxxxn=iX0000((1),(2),,())Xxxxn=00000000((1),(2),,())Xxxxn=1.3)(21)(0012000nxkxsnk+=∑−=2.3)(21)(0120nxkxsinkii+=∑−=3.3)()(21)()(000120000nxnxkxkxssinkii−+−=−∑−=200,,iissss−3.13.23.34.3110000iiiissssss−+++++=ε0iεiXiX0iεiX0XiX0X0iss−0iεiX0X0iss−0iX0iε1212151201020%45%35%200531.438.530.1GDP2.28GDP1.3GDP0.98200629.1239.831.083.32002-2005200225241333.520032793963252004312388300200531438530.1204535(20022005)200220053.43.420022003200420050.8150.720.6140.6133.4,,2-16-H.2000/2001GDPGDPGDP3.53.5GDP%1999GDP(USD)505743363442273043123015404620581036555092732612656023167:2000/2001H.GDP2005GDP89720052005GDP6730,89717897[442,1230]∈,12308970.4261230442a−==−1999a27(1-a)15=20.0a30(1-a)40=35.5a43(1-a)46=44.520.035.544.52002-20053.63.6%20022554133352003279396325200431238830020053143853013.43.73.720022003200420050.8690.8740.6330.6322003200420050.73,[31]8.16%61.66%30.18%200220053.8-18-3.820022003200420050.6890.6450.5960.5963.82002200538,,63.93.9(2002-2005)20022003200420050.2010.4440.3550.2630.3910.3460.3050.3710.3240.2940.3610.3450.2840.3630.3530.2880.3370.3750.3240.3490.3270.320.3690.3110.2330.4800.2870.2740.4720.2540.2810.470.2490.2710.3870.3420.3430.3680.2890.3550.3680.2770.3710.3810.2480.3380.3550.3070.3580.3450.2970.370.350.280.420.3230.2570.4240.3180.2580.3330.4140.2530.3590.3730.2680.370.3810.2490.370.3950.2350.3490.3070.3440.3650.2830.3520.4260.26