光伏行业投资策略（PDF33）(1)

1Sourcesolarwurtschaft.de2ƒƒƒƒ3200820082010¾2008¾2008440%77.688.6125.8154.9201.3287.56390.54561.77744.081195172702004006008001000120014001600180019951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200544.5%530%20051727MWpSource:Sarasin,2005620%Source:Solarwirtschaft05101520253035SolarOilWindHydroNuclearGasCoal¾¾¾PV20%¾2010$3/W74.855.25.45.65.866.26.4D-01J-02F-02M-02A-02M-02J-02J-02A-02S-02O-02N-02D-02J-03F-03M-03A-03M-03J-03J-03A-03S-03O-03N-03D-03J-04F-04M-04A-04M-04J-04J-04A-04S-04O-04N-04D-04J-05F-05M-05A-05M-05J-05J-05A-05S-05O-05N-05D-05J-06F-06M-06A-06USEurope82Germany57%Janpan20%USA7%Row10%Roe6%2005cells™2005645.3MWp™603MWp93.4%35%™PV™PV™400/2010300,2015™(75,400/2010,1000/2020)(25,1300/2011)(10)942816014212510095908060595338985372236230219208230202151142020040060080010001200SharpQ-CellsKyoceraSanyoMitsubishiSchottSolarBPSolarSuntechMotechShellSolarIsofotónDeutscheCell0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2005production(MWp)Operatingrevenue(MiUS$)Marketshare2004(%)1011PVModuleCellWaferSilicon1213ƒƒ$80~240/kg6000/ƒ2832/W3ƒ60W3538/W60W4045/W,FOB$4~4.3/Wƒ60/W14SGS8%41%ƒRECSGSƒ20048%200541%7.86%7.67%20.58%40.57%0200400600800100012000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%revenuesMargin150200400600800100012001400200520062007200820300t1698%↑+→+22COSiCSiO↑+→+233HSiHClSiHCl↑+→+HClSiHSiHCl323150010002002.5100017SolarWorldAGƒSolarWorldAGwafer:cells115:8tEuroƒDeutschSolar15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%18RECƒRECScanwafer(220/250/550)/city:Glomfjord&Heroya(Sitech(25)),16.86%18.38%26.13%27.29%0200400600800100012001400160018000%5%10%15%20%25%30%revenuesMargin19Q-cellsƒ2005ƒ200524.88%;13.87%17.42%19.27%24.88%05010015020025030035010%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%revenues(MEuro/L)EBITDAmargin(%)20MotechSuntech10152025303540452003Q42004Q12004Q22004Q32004Q42005Q12005Q22005Q32005Q42006Q121ƒ2008ƒƒ222008NameLocation200220032004200520062007AdvancedSiliconMaterialsIncUSA--150200300500HemlockSemiconductorCorp.MichiganNorthAmerica200020002100210025003800MitsubishPolysiliconUSA100100100100300500MitsubishMaterialJapan200200100200200300SolarGradeSiliconUSA15019002200220030004200WackerPiktsiliconGerman150016001800190025003300TokuyamaCorp.Japan10001000120014002000250005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002,5163,0011,461398200520062007200823ƒ200620078%10.6%ƒƒ10%ƒ200722.53.6900000.511.522.533.544.55241.:JointSolarSiliconTechSolarworldSGSREC2.(recyclingofsolarmodules):SolarMaterialSMIC3.(long-termcontracts)HemlockWacker…2007804.(Freesuppliermarket):252006™Hemlock7000/2006200610000/200815000™Wacker2500t12200755009000™DeutscheSolarKyoceraSetek200611800983MW2.1GW2.5GW26405060708090100J-89J-89N-89A-90S-90F-91J-91D-91M-92O-92M-93A-93J-94J-94N-94A-95S-95F-96J-96D-96M-97O-97M-98A-98J-99J-99N-99A-00S-00F-01J-01D-01M-02O-02M-03A-03J-04J-04N-04A-05Si($/Pound)27PV/Kg1365845,0002,166,6674,150,0001,983,333733,83347.79%13910,0002,333,3334,150,0011,816,668672,16743.78%13801,040,0002,666,6674,150,0021,483,335548,83435.74%13901,170,0003,000,0004,150,0031,150,003425,50127.71%131001,300,0003,333,3334,150,004816,671302,16819.68%131101,430,0003,666,6674,150,005483,338178,83511.65%131201,560,0004,000,0004,150,006150,00655,5023.61%131301,690,0004,333,3334,150,007-183,326-67,831-4.42%28ƒthin-filmpvƒ(spherical-silicon)ƒ;29PVƒPV2007ƒƒƒ30PVSTP120180600550.sh7060100120600151.sh3080600886.sh2030200520062005PE2006PESTPNYSE$5085-GSSE112400-----22300--SSE---SSE---------35100--24-LDK--------75--TaiwanOTCNT8621198-SolarWorldAGSRWRF.BEDeutscheBoerseEuro37.5948.59EverGreenESLRNasdaq$NA17.17NASunPowerSPWRNasdaq$NAQCellsQCE3114.45~19.5520052006MW5050MW10018023,81038,6365,0008,50021%22%17231445001955008,5003248~5420052006Motech22.4316.14SolarworldAG32.8725.79Everage27.6520.96253004800540030017191618