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项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NETEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement(StrategicPlanning)Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridgesSelect(PortfolioManagement)Manage(ProjectManagement)EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniquesDon’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetraitinhumanbeings.(%)capitalappreciationgrowthofincome06121824303620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernmentbondslong-termcorporatebondslargecompanystockssmallcompanystocksstabilityofprincipalixRExREiniiiportfoliosecurityininvestedproportionthewhere1TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.TheRoleofCombiningSecurities10baabbabbaapxxxx222222baiixabiipandbetweentcoefficienncorrelatiostockofdeviationstandardstockininvestedportfolioofproportionvarianceportfoliowhere2two-securityportfoliorisk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskniix11,Thetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.(standarddeviationofreturns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficientfrontierTheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontierAsportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.totalriskNon-diversifiablerisknumberofsecuritiesNaivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.Marketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponentsofRisk=113%%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3=-1=-1Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf=+1.0,noriskreductionispossiblePortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffects精品资料网18ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniquesPortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities:assessingtheorganizationalfit;analyzingthecosts,benefits,andrisks;anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio.Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis:doingtherightthing,selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold.Defininggoalsandobjectives–clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffs–determinehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifyingrisk–selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk,willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels,andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMoni