bispap51国际清算银行

BISPapersNo51Perspectivesoninflationtargeting,financialstabilityandtheglobalcrisisContributionstotheBIS-sponsoredsessionsattheannualLACEAmeetingsin2008and2009MonetaryandEconomicDepartmentMarch2010ContributionsinthisvolumewerepreparedforBIS-sponsoredsessionsatthe2008and2009LatinAmericanandCaribbeanEconomicAssociation(LACEA)AnnualMeetings,heldinRiodeJaneiroandBuenosAiresrespectively.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheBIS.Individualcontributions(orexcerptsthereof)maybereproducedortranslatedwiththeauthorisationoftheauthorsconcerned.Copiesofpublicationsareavailablefrom:BankforInternationalSettlementsCommunicationsCH-4002Basel,SwitzerlandE-mail:[e-mail]:[phone]and+41612808100ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org).©BankforInternationalSettlements2010.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1609-0381(print)ISBN92-9131-822-1(print)ISSN16827651(online)ISBN92-9197-822-1(online)ForewordSince2006,theBankforInternationalSettlements(BIS),throughitsRepresentativeOfficefortheAmericas,hassponsoredsessionsattheannualmeetingsoftheLatinAmericanandCaribbeanEconomicAssociation(LACEA).TheBISinviteshighlevelcentralbankofficialsandleadingacademicstothesesessionstostimulatetheexchangeofviewsonissuesrelevanttothecentralbankingcommunityintheregion.InthisBISPaper,wearepublishingselectedpresentationsfromtheBIS-sponsoredsessionsatthetwomostrecentLACEAannualgatherings:theNovember2008meeting,inRiodeJaneiro,andtheOctober2009meeting,inBuenosAires.The2008papersinthisvolumearebyJosédeGregorio,GovernoroftheCentralBankofChile,andGuillermoCalvo,professorofeconomicsatColumbiaUniversity;the2009presentationsarebyVittorioCorbo,formerGovernoroftheCentralBankofChile,andMichaelDooley,professorofeconomicsattheUniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz.ThisvolumeincludesintroductionsbyMárGudmundsson,DeputyHeadoftheBISMonetaryandEconomicDepartment(MED)whenhechairedthe2008sessionandnowGovernoroftheCentralBankofIceland;andbyPhilipTurner,HeadoftheBISSecretariatGroupwhenhechairedthe2009sessionandnowaDeputyHeadofMED.ThevolumealsocontainsasummarypreparedbyCamiloETovar,SeniorEconomistattheAmericasOffice,whoorganisedandcoordinatedthesessionsandeditedthepaperspublishedhere.WeattheBISanditsRepresentativeOfficefortheAmericasareconvincedthatforumsofthiskindhelpimprovethequalityofthedebateontopicsthatarerelevanttothecentralbankingcommunityandtheeconomiesoftheregion.GregorCHeinrichChiefRepresentativeOfficefortheAmericasBISPapersNo51iiiBISPapersNo51vContentsForeword..................................................................................................................................iiiPerspectivesoninflationtargeting,financialstabilityandtheglobalcrisisCamiloETovar.........................................................................................................................1PartI:Challengestoinflationtargeting.....................................................................................5Challengestoinflationtargeting:raisingsomeissuesMárGudmundsson...................................................................................................................7RecentchallengesofinflationtargetingJoséDeGregorio......................................................................................................................9InflationtargetinginhardtimesGuillermoCalvo......................................................................................................................15PartII:Centralbanksandtheglobalcrisis–lessonsandchallenges....................................19CentralbanksandthefinancialcrisisPhilipTurner...........................................................................................................................21Financialstabilityinacrisis:whatistheroleofthecentralbank?VittorioCorbo..........................................................................................................................27CentralbankresponsestofinancialcrisesMichaelDooley.......................................................................................................................31Perspectivesoninflationtargeting,financialstabilityandtheglobalcrisisCamiloETovar1ThisvolumecontainsfourpaperspresentedattheBIS-sponsoredsessionsatthe2008and2009annualmeetingsofLACEA.Writtenbyleadingcentralbankersanddistinguishedacademics,theyaddressthechallengesconfrontedinrecentyearsbycentralbanksthatpracticeinflationtargeting(IT)andissuesarisingfromtheglobalcrisis.Thefirsttwopaperswerepresentedatthe2008session,“Challengestoinflationtargeting”,onebyJosédeGregorio(GovernoroftheCentralBankofChile)andtheotherbyGuillermoCalvo(professorofeconomicsatColumbiaUniversity).Followingthosearepapersfromthe2009session,“Centralbanksandtheglobalcrisis:lessonsandchallenges”,onebyVittorioCorbo(formerGovernoroftheCentralBankofChile)andtheotherbyMichaelDooley(professorofeconomicsattheUniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz),Thepapersareprecededbytheintroduc