我国技术流动的博弈策略分析

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文我国技术流动的博弈策略分析姓名：郭三党申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：刘思峰20061201iiiAbstractIntheknowledgeeconomytime,thetechnologyhasbecomethemainstrategyforcountriesininternationalcompetitionandthetechnicalspatialflowingisfrequentdayafterday.But,therearemanyfactorsbeingharmfulforthetechnologicaldevelopmentinthetechnologyflowingprocessinourcountry,whichisleadingtothatourcountryenterprisesnottobeabletograspthemarketinformationaccurately,selecttheappropriatetechnicalflowingpatternandthebestproducttechnicalcontentandobtaintheanticipatedeconomicefficiencyinthetechnicalflowingprocess.Soitisnecessarytoconducttheresearchtoourcountrytechnologyflowing.Onthethesisitisanalyzedthattheconceptsoftechnicalinnovation,technicaltransformation,technicaldiffusionintechnicalflowsprocessandthelogicrelationofinherentstructureamongthematfirst,thentheconceptoftechnicalflowisprovided,andthenthedynamicalmechanismofthetechnicalflowhasbeenanalyzed.Onthisbasis,thegamblingmodeloftechnicalinnovation,technicaltransformation,technicaldiffusion,andtechnicaloverflowintechnicalflowsprocessinourcountryisestablishedfortherationalindividualdecision-makerandtheevolutiongamblingmodelofthetechnicalinnovationisestablishedfortheirrationalcommunitydecision-maker.Theanalysisofproducttechnologycontentsintheprocessoftechnologyflowbygamemethodwasemphasized.Accordingtothegamblingmodelresult,intheindividualdecision-makinggamblingmodel,theenterprisehasthecompetitiveadvantagefortechnicalinnovationfirstlyandthebesttechnicalcontent.Tocomparewiththetraditionpatternwhichdoesnotcooperateandtaketheoutputasthedecision-making,thecooperationinnovationcanenhancethetechnicalcontentoftheenterpriseproduct.Inthecommunityinnovationprocessirrationalindividualshouldchoosetheinnovationstrategy.So,intheprocessoftechnologyflow,enterprisesshouldbeselectdifferentmeanssuchasinnovation,cooperationandimitationaccordingtotheirowncondition.Thegovernmentshouldstandardthetechnologicalmarkettoprovidefineenvironmentfortechnologyflow.Anditisconductedoftheexampleresearchbythevaluetothemodel.Keywords:game,technicalflow,technicalcontent,technicalinnovation,technicaltransformation,technicaldiffusion,technicaloverflow()11.11.1.1[1]1.1.221.2O.Hirschmann”2030[2][3][4][5][6]A.3[7]J.Hicks(N.Rosenberg)J.Schmookler[8][9]D.North[10]MacDougallFDIFDI(Caves1974)(Kokko1992)CoodenKorzumi(Das)[11](Stevens,1994)(Cowan&Foray,1995)R&D90MNCMNC4(cournot)(Bertrand)18381883Borel1944(Neumann)(Morgensten)(Nash)(Harsanyi)(Selten)1973EvolutionarilyStableStrategESS(PeytonYoung)(Fudenberg)[12][13-20]Reinganum(1981)(Ziss,1994)R&D()()[21-28]51.31.4121.57047303762.12.1.11911()(1934Innovation)192819391951---1953(BarnettHG)1954(MaclaurimWR)1962(EnosJL)1963(ArtherO.Little)1974(FreemanC)71977(MansfieldE)1985(MusserR)35034[29]()2.1.2[30]()[31]82.1.3(Rogers,1995)(Mansfield,1971Rogers,Scamell,1990)(Rogers,1995)(J.S.Colemen)(bandwagoneffect)S(P.David)(S.Davies)-------[32]2.1.4[33]2090(Klibanoff)(Morduch)(Lee)(Boisot)(Poyago)(Theotoky)(1995)(1995)9(R&D)(1995)(1995)R&D(Kapur)(Ziss)(1995)(1994)(R&D)()(R&D)(Gugler)(Dunning)(Hagedoorn)(Duysters)(1993)R&D(1995)80(1996)R&D(Parente)(Colombo)(Mosconi)(1994)(1995)(Mckendrick)(Buzzacchi)(Mariotti)(1995)(1995)102.1.5()()()[31]112.1.62.2[34](Nneeds)(Rresources)N-RN-RRN-RN-RN-RN-RN-R(12)N-R[31]()(1912)(J1Merenish)(E.Mansfield)---()---133.1D’AspremontandJacqueminde(1988)[35]KotaroSuzumura(1992)NicholasS.Vonotras(1989)Ziss(1944)R&D[36-37]3.1.1121pQ[38]QbQa)Q(p−=(b=1)Q21qqQ+=1q12q2aa2121t2tit0ititit[3940]14221iitWβ=)2,1(=i031212CaCkiiktCc−=(Ck=it2,1i)3.1123i)2,1(21))((2=−−=itcQpqiiiiβπ1iiRiq)(Qp)(QpqRii∗=23iiY221iiiitcqYβ+∗=iiπiRiY2221))((21*iiiiiiitcQpqtcqββπ−−=+=3.1.23.1.2.13.11212112112111121))((21))((tktCqqaqtcQpqββπ−+−+−=−−=3.1.12152112122112221))((21))((tktCqqaqtcQpqββπ−+−+−=−−=3.1.221121121121))((max(),(max1tktCqqaqqqqβπ−+−+−∗=21121221121))((max(),(max2tktCqqaqqqqβπ−+−+−∗=ts⋅0,0,0,,0,0121≥≥tkCaqqβ3.23.13**121ktCaqq+−==3.1.13.1.20)(112111=−+−+−=∂∂qktCqqaqπ3.1.30)(212122=−+−+−=∂∂qktCqqaqπ3.1.43**121ktCaqq+−==3.1.53.1.5*q1*q2k,t,a13.33.221212121)3(**tktCaβππ−+−==163.1.53.1.13.1.221212121)3(**tktCaβππ−+−==3.1.63.1.6kk3.43.32129)(2*kCakt−−=β3.1.61t00332*1111=−∗+−=∂∂tkktCatβπ3.1.72129)(2*kCakt−−=β(3.1.8),0t,0,Ca,0k1β02k92−β992*22112βπ−=∂∂kt0*2112∂∂tπ*t12129)(2*kCakt−−=β3.4*1t3.1.2.23.5123172*2ktCaQ+−=222221)2(*tktCaβπ−+−=′222)(*kCakt−−=β12322221))((tcQpQβπ−−=′(3.1.9)3.1.9Q0022=+−−=∂′∂ktCQaQπ(3.1.10)2*2ktCaQ+−=(3.1.11)3.1.113.1.9222221)2(*tktCaβπ−+−=′0222*222=−∗+−=∂′∂tkktCatβπ222)(*kCakt−−=β3.1.123.63.5*Q*t1*t2*t*t******212121+′+πππqqQ3.232**121ktCaqq+−=+3.1.13183.3212121)3(2**tktCaβππ−+−=+3.1.143.1.133.1.1445*t*t******212121+′+πππqqQ**21ttββ3.1.33.1.3.1,100,1k,10C,200a====β0.010.023.33.11939954000400540104015402040250.010.110.210.310.410.510.610.710.810.913.13.13.1.3.2,100,10,200===βCak0.010.043.43.200.20.40.60.810.010.170.330.490.650.810.971.131.291.451.611.771.933.23.2kk3.1.3.3,1k,10C,200a===β5053.43.32000.20.40.60.81506580951101251401551701852002152302452602752903.33.3ββ3.23.11233.11211