战略管理的趋势（值得细细一读）pdf

50517CurrentTrendsinStrategicManagementIsometimesfeellikeI’mbehindthewheelofaracecar...Oneofthebiggestchallengesisthattherearenoroadsignstohelpnavigate.And,infact,noonehasyetdeterminedwhichsideoftheroadwe’resupposedtobeon.—StephenM.Case,Chairman,AOLTimeWarner1OUTLINEnINTRODUCTIONnTRENDSINTHEEXTERNALENVIRONMENTOFBUSINESSWhateverHappenedtotheNewEconomy?CompetitionandTurbulenceSocietalPressuresnNEWDIRECTIONSINSTRATEGICTHINKINGBeyondDownsizingandShareholderValueComplexityTheoryRealOptionsnREDESIGNINGTHEORGANIZATIONCapability-basedStructuresOrganizingforAdaptabilitynNEWMODESOFLEADERSHIPnSUMMARYnNOTESCSA5eC1713/07/200415:49Page505506CURRENTTRENDSINSTRATEGICMANAGEMENTINTRODUCTIONLetuscastourmindsbacktoJanuary1,2000.Despiteallthehooplasur-roundingthebeginningofaNewMillennium–formostpeoplethetransitionfromthetwentiethtothetwenty-firstcenturyhadlittlerealsignificance.Whatadifferencefouryearscanmake!Inretrospectitisclearthatthebegin-ningofthenewmillenniummarkedawatershed–bothforbusinessandfortheworld.OnMarch10,2000,theNASDAQhititsall-timehighof5,132.Overthenexttwoyearsitlost62percentofitsvalue.Inthevanguardofthestockmarketdeclinewasthemeltdownofthehigh-flyinginternetstocks.Asthedot.combubblerapidlydeflated,anewcategoryofstocksemerged–theNinety-FivePercentClub–thosethathadlostmorethan95percentoftheirvalue.Thedecliningstockmarketwascloselylinkedtodevelopmentsintherealeconomy.Duringthelatterhalfof2000,growth,productivityandprofitsallwentintodecline.OnJanuary3,2001,theFedannouncedthefirstinasequenceofinterestratecuts.Faithinthewondersofthe“NewEconomy”soondissipated.OpinionbecamedividedbetweenthosewhoviewedtheperiodofIT-ledproductivitygrowthasoverandthosewhoclaimedthattheNewEconomyhadbeenamiragefromthestart.Theeconomicrumblingsof2000weresoonovershadowedbyeventsonalargerscale.TheSeptember11,2001destructionoftheWorldTradeCenterinauguratedanewerainworldhistory.Duringthenexttwoyears,US-ledinvasionsofAfghanistanandIraqestablishednewgovernmentsinbothcoun-tries.Meanwhile,theinstitutionsthathaddominatedinternationalrelationsforoverhalfacentury–NATOandtheUnitedNations–wererelegatedtoabackseatinworldaffairs.Thefall-outforthebusinessworldwasconsiderable.Inadditiontoplun-gingmostoftheworldintorecession,theUSgovernment’s“waronterror-ism”andincreasingunilateralismreversedmanyofthetrendstowardscloserintegrationoftheworldeconomy.Newsecuritymeasuresmadeinternationalshipmentofgoodsslowerandmorecostly;internationalfinancialtransactionsbecamesubjecttoincreasingscrutinyandregulation;andthecollapseoftheDoharoundofmultilateraltradetalksandgrowingtradetensionsbetweentheUSandEUandUSandChinawereseenasharbingersofaneweraofprotectionism.Inthischapterweshallreviewsomeofthemajorcurrenttrendsintheexternalenvironmentofbusinessandconsidertheirimplicationsforstrategicmanagement.Unliketheotherchaptersofthisbook,thischapterwillnotequipyouwithtoolsandframeworksthatyoucandeploydirectlyinyourowncom-paniesorincaseanalysis.Myapproachisexploratory.Mygoalistointroduceyoutosomeoftheideasthatarereshapingourthinkingaboutbusinessstrat-egyandtostimulateyourthinkingaboutthekindsofstrategiesthatarelikelytobeeffectiveduringthiseraofuncertaintyandrapidchangeandthetypesoforganizationsuitedtoimplementingsuchstrategies.CSA5eC1713/07/200415:49Page506TRENDSINTHEEXTERNALENVIRONMENTOFBUSINESS507TRENDSINTHEEXTERNALENVIRONMENTOFBUSINESSWhateverHappenedtotheNewEconomy?Theperiodofintenseeconomicandtechnologicalchangebeginninginthelatterpartofthe1990shasbeendescribedasthe“thirdindustrialrevolution”–followingthefirstindustrialrevolutionthatbeganinBritainattheendoftheeighteenthcenturyandinvolvedthemechanizationofproduction,andthesecondindustrialrevolutionthatbeganintheUSattheendofthenineteenthcenturyandsawtheriseofthemoderncorporationandtheintroductionoftelephones,automobiles,andelectricalpower.The“NewEconomy”ofthelate1990swasdrivenbydigitaltechnologiesandnewcommunicationsmedia–notablywirelesstelephonyandtheinternet.Itwasfueledtoobytheworldwidetrendstowardsprivatization,deregu-lation,andfreetrade.However,itsglorieswereshort-lived–by2003,manyofthepioneersoftheNewEconomy(WorldComandGlobalCrossingintelecom,Marconiintelecomequipment,WebVanandValueAmerica.comine-retailing)hadmetignominiousends.Whilethebubbleeconomyofthelate1990swasinflatedbyirrationalexuberance,thetechnologicalchangesofthepast10years,andtheproductivitygainsthattheyhaveproduced,arereal.AttherootoftheNewEconomyphenomenonistheshiftfromanindustrialtoaknowledgeeconomywheresoftwareratherthanhardwareistheprimarysourceofvalue.Stanfordeconomist,PaulRomerarguesthatthecriticalfeatureofsoftware–whetheritisamovie,abook,acomputerprogram,orabusinesssystem–isthatitsinitialcostofcreationisveryhigh,butsubsequentcopiescostmuchless.Economiesofreplicationtogetherwiththecomplementaryrelationshipsbetweendifferenttypesofknowledgepermitunprecedentedlevelsofproductivitygrowth(seeFigure17.1).Digitaltechnologiesreinforcetheseincreas-ingreturnsbyreducingcostsofreplicationtonearzeroandallowinginstantaneousglobaldistribution.1Lookingbeyond2004,thepotentialfordigita