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ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao1StrategicThinking策略性的思考ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao2Prisoner’sDilemma囚徒的困境•CokeversusPepsi可口可乐对百事可乐•CompetitioninHongKongbankingindustry香港银行业的竞争ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao3ToleadorNottoLead?先下手为强?•TheU.K.CreditCardIndustry英国信用卡行业•Boeingv.Airbus波音对空中客车ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao4我自巍然不动HereIStandManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao5ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao6Howtoincreaseyourbargainingpower?各个击破•UAWagainstFord,GM,andChrysler美国汽车工会对抗福特、通用和克莱斯勒•Evicttenantsinrent-controlledapartments如何赶走租金管制大楼的所有租客•Monopolyisnice,butmonopolyplusshortageistwiceasgood通过垄断能提高你的讨价还价能力,垄断再加上短缺就更好了ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao7StrategicSituations需要策略性思考的情景•partiesactivelyconsidertheinteractionswithoneanotherinmakingdecisions一方做决策时会主动将另一方的反应纳入考虑•gametheory--setofideasandprinciplestoguidestrategicthinking博弈论—指导策略性思考的一套理念和原理–equilibriumconcepts均衡的概念–representativegames典型的博弈ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao8JohnNash美丽心灵ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao9NashEquilibrium纳什均衡GiventhattheotherplayerschoosetheirNashequilibriumstrategies,eachpartyprefersitsownNashequilibriumstrategy每一方在其他的对手选择他们的纳什均衡策略时,也会选择自己的纳什均衡策略•Optimality优化•Stability稳定ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao10SeeingThroughYourRival’sStrategy洞察对手的策略•“AllthatIhavetosayhasalreadycrossedyourmind,”saidHolmes.“我想要问的你已经都知道了”Holmes说.•“Thenpossiblymyanswerhascrossedyours,”Watsonreplied.“那么我的回答你也知道”Watson道.ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao11NoNashequilibriuminpurestrategies不存在纯策略的纳什均衡Competitor.comNBANHLNBA篮球比赛W:4,C:3W:3,C:4We.comNHL冰球比赛W:3,C:4W:4,C:3Wheretoadvertise?在哪儿作宣传?ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao12RandomizedStrategies随机策略•chooseamongpurestrategiesaccordingtoprobabilities根据概率在纯策略中作出选择•mustbeunpredictable必须是不可预测的–IRSauditing(IRS审计)–penaltyshoots(罚十二码球)–retailpricediscounts(零售价格折扣)ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao13CompetitiveDilemma竞争的两难Pepsi百事Raiseprice提价Discount打折Coke可口Raiseprice提价C:3,P:3C:0,P:5Discount打折C:5,P:0C:1,P:1ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao14June1998:SaudiOilMinisterNaimi,“Idon’tthinkanybodyexpects100%compliance…Oncethepricegoesup,therewillbecheating”March1999:AlgerianOilMinisterYoucefYousfi,“OPECisstillabletoactcollectivelyandrestoremarketstability”1998年六月,沙特石油部长Naimi说:“我不认为人们会100%的遵守…一旦价格上涨,就会有欺骗”1999年三月:阿尔及利亚石油部长YoucefYousfi说:“欧佩克仍然能够一致行动保持市场的稳定”OPEC:OilCartel石油卡特尔ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao15DifficultiesinDetectingCheaters难于找出作弊者•Uncertaintyinmarketdemand市场需求的不确定性•Multi-dimensionalinteractions多维的竞争•Hardertoidentifythecheaterthantodetectcheating找出作弊者比发现作弊事件更难ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao16CurrentGainv.FutureLoss眼前利益和长远利益•Onlyinanongoingrelationshipisthereanabilitytopunish,andthusasticktomotivate.唯有在持续的关系中，才能保持惩罚的能力；惩罚能力反过来会维持良好的合作关系•Problemwithfiniteperiodsoffuturetransactions未来交易期限的问题ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao17SequentialGames先后下手的游戏•secondmoveradvantage后发制人•firstmoveradvantage先下手为强ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao18PricingforProfit如何定价才能获利TheU.K.CreditCardIndustryintheLate1980s(A)-(D)80年代末的英国信用卡行业ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao19MainPlayersintheUKCreditCardIndustry英国信用卡行业的主要参与者•Cardholders,merchants,merchantacquirers,issuingbanks,andcardassociations持卡人,商家,信用卡中间业务处理商,发卡银行和信用卡组织•Merchantacquirerscollectamerchantservicecharge(MSC)fortheissuingbanks;inreturntheyreceiveadomesticinterchangefee(DIF)fromtheissuingbanks.信用卡中间业务处理商为发卡银行收取商业服务费;相应地,他们从发卡银行那里得到国内交换费用ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao20CardsinCirculation:1988信用卡持有量:1988年•VisaBanks–BankofScotland(1,030thousands),Barclays(8,680),TSB(3,118),andothers(1,292)•AccessBanks–Lloyds(2,800),Midland(2,820),NatWest(3,797),RBS(822),andothers(269)ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao21TransactionVolume:1988交易量:1988年•VisaBanks:–BankofScotland(604millionpounds),Barclays(6,958),TSB(1,366),andothers(664)•AccessBanks:–Lloyds(2,301),Midland(2,147),NatWest(2,961),RBS(573),andothers(237)ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao22CrisisintheUKCreditCardIndustry英国信用卡行业的危机•Hugelyprofitableinthemid1980s:frominterestchargedtocardholdersonunpaidbalancesandfeespaidbyretailers在80年代中期利润丰厚，收入来自未付帐款的利息和零售商的付费•injeopardybyearlyspringof19891989年春岌岌可危ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao23CausesoftheChanges改变的原因•Manyofthesmallerbankswerebeginningtoenterthecreditcardbusiness,andasaresultthefeespaidbyretailersweredropping.Ontheotherhand,thecostofmoneywasincreasing.Finally,theproportionofoutstandingbalancessubjecttointerestwasdecreasing,from41.5%in1984to34.0%in1988(36.9%forLloydsin1988v.31.8%forBarclays).许多较小的银行开始进入信用卡领域,零售商的付费随之减少。同时，货币成本增加。未付帐款的比例缩减：从1984年41.5%到1988年的34.0%(Lloyds36.9%而Barclays31.8%).ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao24LeaderorFollower?先发还是后制?•Inearly1989,Barclaysannounceditwasconsideringtheintroductionofaflatfeeforitscreditcards1989年初，Barclays宣布它正在考虑收取信用卡年费•In8/89’,Lloydsannouncedthat,startingFebruary1,1990,itwouldchargeafeeof12poundsandreducedinterestratefrom29.8%APR(annualpercentagerate)to26.8%APR.Barclays’response:“Wehavenoplanstointroduceanannualfeeatthisstagethoughwehavebeenthinkingaboutit.”89年8月，Lloyds宣布自90年2月1日起收取12英镑的年费，并降低利息，从29.8%的年利率降至26.8%。Barclays的反应是：我们还在考虑.ManagerialEconomicsZhigangTao25CompetitioninMarketShare抢占市场份额•Lloydswasestimatedtohavelost375,