美国阿巴战略进展与阿富汗问题前景

美国阿巴战略进展与阿富汗问题前景傅小强[]美国是引发当前阿富汗问题的最大因素,奥巴马阿巴新战略的推行和调整并未解决塔利班挑战卡尔扎伊政权虚弱和铲除巴阿恐怖策源地等诸多问题2010年,美国内围绕阿富汗问题的矛盾和辩论激烈,影响阿富汗问题前景的美国巴基斯坦阿富汗国内政治和地区国家这四大因素也都有所变化未来几年,美国的阿富汗战略将加速向脱困和收拾烂摊子的方向转变,以腾出精力应对新兴大国的战略挑战,巩固和延续美国霸权,阿富汗问题有可能变得更为复杂[]美国阿富汗阿巴战略[]傅小强,中国现代国际关系研究院反恐怖研究中心主任副研究员博士,主要从事反恐和南亚问题研究9,!,2010,;11,2014,???一美国阿巴新战略的进展与困境9∀11,,,20093,,,,:,,,,9∀11#,,,201011,5,14,∃,,,,,,20117,,,,24%&201012!#∃TonyKaron,TheAfghanistanWarReachesaMilestoneandKeepsGoing,Times,November25,2010,(:20101210)Obama∋sSpeechonAfghanistanandPakistan,(:2009817).JamesJoyner,Afghanistan:ANewWayForward,AfghanStudyGroup,(:201099)201011,2014,!,,2009,2001,,,,,,,,+,,20108,(ANA)13.4,201117.16,#12,∃201430.6(,,,,,,,,,,,,,2009,-,515,,,,,2010,5,),,,,,,,,2010,,:,;,,,300∗,+++,,20105,,,,25%&201012!#∃()∗AhmedRashid,TalksaretheonlyrouteinAfghanistan,TheNewYorkTimes,November27,2010.AnthonyH.Cordesman,TheWarinAfghanistan:KeyTrendsintheFightingandANSFDevelopmentintheNovember20101230ReportandYear-EndNTM-AReporting,CSISReport,December1,2010,p.22.ReportonProgressTowardSecurityandStabilityinAfghanistan,ReporttoCongressinAccordancewithSection1230oftheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActforFiscalYear2008(PublicLaw110-181),asamended,November2010,p.37.DavidIgnatius,BumpsintheAfghanRoad,WashingtonPost,September12,2010.SyedSaleemShahzad,PakistanStaresintoaValleyofDeath,AsiaTimes,December2,2010.FredKaplan,ANewPlanforAfghanistan:LessCounterinsurgency,MoreKillingandCapturing,NewYorkTimes,Oct.13,2010.,,,,,,:,??!,,,#20117,,,,2010,20106,,;,,,,2010,,,,,,,201012,,,,20117,,,;,2014,3,20117二影响阿富汗问题的四大因素,∃,,10,,,??,2020,21,9∀11,,,9,1000,1407,,(,26%&201012!#∃(JoeKlein,BarackObama∋sBigFatAfghanDilemma,WashingtonPost,June13,2010.JoeKlein,BarackObamasBigFatAfghanDilemma,WashingtonPost,June13,2010.HenryA.Kissinger,AmericaNeedsanAfghanStrategy,NotanAlibi,WashingtonPost,June24,2010.CongressionalResearchService,(:2010716);(:20101124).,,!,,,400,,2009,,:,,2010,,,,,,,#,,,,300,,,20909∀11,,,,,,,,,9∀11,;,2009,10,∃,,,2010,(,,:,,,,,,),,∗,,,,,,,,,27%&201012!#∃()∗JamesJoyner,Afghanistan:ANewWayForward,AfghanStudyGroup,(:201099)JamesRisen,U.S.IdentifiesVastMineralRichesinAfghanistan,TheNewYorkTimes,June13,2010.MarkMazzett,iJanePerlez,EricSchmitt,andAndrewW.Lehren,PakistanAidsInsurgencyinAfghanistan,ReportsAssert,NewYorkTimes,July25,2010.RichardL.ArmitageandSamuelR.Berger,U.S.StrategyforPakistanandAfghanistan,CouncilforForeignRelations,IndependentTaskForceReport,No.65,p.4.AnthonyH.Cordesman,HowAmericaCorruptedAfghanistan:TimetoLookintheMirror,September8,2010,CSISReport,p.2.RichardL.ArmitageandSamuelR.Berger,U.S.StrategyforPakistanandAfghanistan,CouncilforForeignRelations,IndependentTaskForceReport,No.65,p.20.,,,,,,,30,,,,,,,,1979,1/4,1/3,6!,,10140,3360,1/3#,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,∃,,20,,,三前景分析,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,,,,,,2001,,,10,,828%&201012!#∃(DefiningSuccessinAfghanistan:WhatCantheUnitedStatesAccept,ForeignAffairs,July/August2010;RobertD.Blackwil,lADeFactoPartionforAfghanistan,Politico,July7,2010.IndranilBanerjie,FoulplayinKabul,AsiaTimes,September6th,2010.JamesJoyner,Afghanistan:ANewWayForward,AfghanStudyGroup,p.8,(:201099)AustinLong,SmallIsBeautifu:lTheCounterterrorismOptioninAfghanistan,Orbis,54,No.2(Spring2010).!,,,,,,,2010,,20117,,,,,#,,2005%&,2006,3600,1000,,%&,,∃,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2014,,,2014,,,2090,,(decentralization)(,9∀11,,,,,,(:)29%&201012!#∃(RamtanuMaitra,NewU.S.BasesinAfghanistan:WhatDoTheyPortend?EIRReport,March25,2005.PeterBakerandRodNordland,U.S.PlanEnvisionsPathtoEndingAfghanCombat,TheNewYorkTimes,November14,2010.ZdzislawLachowsk,iForeignMilitaryBasesinEurasia,SIPRIPolicyPaper,No.18,June2007.RichardNHaass,TimetoDrawDowninAfghanistan,Newsweek,July18,2010.