资产组合投资策略(1)

PortfolioStrategistAWEEKLYFORPROFESSIONALINVESTORSMarch12,2003Volume21,No.11US03L065Acompletetableofcontentsappearsonpage2.PleaseseethebackofthisreportforImportantDisclosures.Alsointhisissue...WorldRadarScreenTheNewInvestmentDietFad..................................................................................................................3AlmostthreeyearssincetheNasdaq’speak,investorshaveabandonedthe“cultofequities”ofthe1990s(asmeasuredbymutualfundoutflows)andbecomeobsessedwithprotectingprincipal.Asaresult,theyhaveshiftedtheirattentiontobonds,seeminglyunawareofthepotentialharmthatthis“diet”poses.TobiasM.LevkovichTheCostofWaiting.................................................................................................................................6DivisionsbetweentheU.S.anditsalliesoverIraqhaveleftmanycontemplatingalesssecureworld.Whilethisdramaunfolds,thelatestdatahavebeendiscouraging,asitincreasinglyseemsatimelyandfavorableoutcomeinIraqwillbeanecessarypre-conditiontoavoidfurtherdeteriorationintheU.S.economy.StevenWietingTechnology—General:ResultsofOurNewVendorChoiceSurvey...........................................................8UsingtheresultsofourinitialquarterlyCIOVendorChoiceSurvey,weanalyzethespendingpatternsrelatedtokeyvendorsinseveraltech-relatedindustries.HeatherBellini,CFA/PatrickBurton,CFA/DanCummins/CraigEllis/RichardGardner/AlexHendersonGreatLakesChemical:MoreStrategicClarityandanAttractiveValuation...........................................11OnMarch5,weupgradedGLKtoOutperform(1H)andraisedourpricetargetto$28from$24.ThestrategicacquisitionofLime-O-SolgivesusmoreconfidenceinGreatLakes’suseofcash,andwebelieveithasimproveditsbusinesscostsandbalancesheet.GilYangPaper&ForestProducts:ReducingNear-TermEstimates;“Out-Year”NumbersBarelyTouched..........13WearetrimmingEPSestimatestoreflectanongoinghigherlevelofenergycostsandtheimpactofharshweather.Wearebarelytouchingany“out-year”EPSestimates,however,aswebelievetheweakerU.S.dollarwilleventuallyallowpriceincreasestooffsetanypermanentenergycosthikes.ChipDillon,CFATestoftheOctoberLowsatHand..........................................................................................................15TheS&Piscurrentlyfallingtowardanoversoldreading,suggestingtheindexstillmaybeinaprocessofdecline.LouiseYamada,CMT/RonaldF.Daino,CMT/SusanStern,CMT
SALOMONSMITHBARNEYPORTFOLIOSTRATEGISTMarch12,2003TableofContents2CompaniesDiscussedThisWeekThefollowingcompaniesarediscussedinarticlesappearinginthisweek’sissueofPortfolioStrategist.ReferalsototheChangesinEarningsEstimatesandResearchPublicationssectionsofthisissue.Wheretofindusonline:SalomonSmithBarney’sGlobalEquitiesOnlinewebsite(GEO):ChooseStrategy,thenFeaturePublications,thenWeekly.SalomonSmithBarney’sFCLinxsystem:ChooseResearch,thenFeaturePublications,thenWeekly.SalomonSmithBarney’sAccesssystem:Logon.AtHomePage,chooseSiteLinks,thenInvestmentIdeas,thenMarketCommentary.Bloomberg:ChooseEquityMenu,thentypeinSBR,then1.Company/IndustryResearchReports.Multex:ChooseAdvancedSearch,thenSalomonSmithBarney,thenPortfolioStrategist.ResearchDirect:ChooseBroker,thenSalomonSmithBarney,thenMarketCommentary&/orStrategy,thenDate.U.S.InstitutionalEquityStrategy:TheNewInvestmentDietFad...............................................3TobiasM.LevkovichEconomic&MarketAnalysis:TheCostofWaiting....................................................................6StevenWietingTechnology—General:ResultsofOurNewVendorChoiceSurvey.............................................8HeatherBellini/PatrickBurton/DanCummins/CraigEllis/RichardGardner/AlexHendersonGreatLakesChemical:MoreStrategicClarityandanAttractiveValuation.......................11GilYangPaper&ForestProducts:ReducingNear-TermEstimates;“Out-Year”NumbersBarelyTouched......................................13ChipDillonFromtheChartroom:TestoftheOctoberLowsatHand........................................................15LouiseYamada/RonaldDaino/SusanSternQuantitativeAnalysis:WorldRadarScreen.............20DeepKapur/JonathanBarden/HongLiRatingsAlert..............................................................25Updates......................................................................27ChangesinEarningsEstimates.................................30ResearchPublications...............................................32EmergingGrowthFocusList.....................................33U.S.EconomicForecast............................................34InstitutionalPortfolioWeighting...............................35SalomonSmithBarneyRecommendedList.............36ImportantDisclosures...............................................37ADP..........................................................10Aegon.......................................................25Ahold........................................................27AllianceImaging,Inc................................25AmericanInternationalGroup..................20AnadarkoPetroleum................................16AonCorp...............................