中东伊斯兰国家民主化改革_压力_困境与选择

版权所有西亚非洲杂志社压力困境与选择孙溯源冷战结束后,受到来自国际和国内的双重压力,政治民主化改革成为中东伊斯兰各国政治生活的一个主题由于西方国家同伊斯兰国家对民主的认知之间存在明显差异,同伊斯兰国家民众的民主化要求之间也有严重分歧,中东伊斯兰国家的民主化至今尚未取得显著成效伊斯兰国家各国政府作为民主化改革的施动者,承受着协调分歧的巨大考验中东伊斯兰国家民主化改革的前景因国内外相互冲突的民主诉求,以及各国政府协调能力的不同而面临多种选择中东民主化伊斯兰改革孙溯源,复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士生(上海201100),2070~90,,,,,,,,,,,(FreedomHouse)2000,23,;::20,,1998,:,,20042,58~63SeeCondoleezzaRice,TransformingtheMiddleEast,WashingtonPost,August7,2003,,,,,,,,,,,,,2000,,,,,,,2003,,,,,,2070(rentierstate),,,,,,1979~1998,,131336531,2775016323,128599688,23%,3%,123%1/314,,,24西亚非洲2007年第4期AdrianKaratnycky,Freedom:ACenturyofProgress,inFreedomHouse,TheAnnualSurveyofPoliticalRightsandCivilLiberties,NewYork:FreedomHouse,2000StevenNider,TheMiddleEastDemocracyDeficit,BlueprintMagazine,December2,2002,at=450004&subsecID=900021&contentID=251048SeeANationalSecurityStrategyforaGlobalAge,Washington,DC:TheWhiteHouse,December2000,pp1-4IbidSeeKirenAzizChaudhry,ThePriceofWealth:InternationalCapitalFlowsandthePoliticalEconomyofLateDevelopment,Ithaca,NY:CornellUniversityPress,19971986~20011990~1991,,,,SeeUnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration,OPECRevenuesFactSheet,at:Conflict,Stability,andPoliticalChange,SantaMonica,Calif:RAND,MR-1640-AF,2004,p21CentralIntelligenceAgency,TheWorldFactbook2002,Washington,DC:CentralIntelligenceAgency,2002,,,,,,,,,,,,2002,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-,25中东伊斯兰国家民主化改革SeeUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeandArabHumanFundforEconomicandSocialDevelopment,ArabHumanDevelopmentRe-port2002:CreatingOpportunitiesforFutureGenerations,NewYork:UnitedNationsPublication,2002SeeSamiBaroud,iThe2002ArabHu-manDevelopmentReport:ImplicationsforDemocracy,MiddleEastPolicy,Vol11,No1,Spring2004,,,;:,5::,,2001,35:,30~33:,,2000,272(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1951,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,26西亚非洲2007年第4期:,34:,,20055,57~63SeeZbigniewBrzezinsk,iTheWrongWaytoSellDemocracyintheArabWorld,TheNewYorkTimes,8March2004SeeFirasAl-Atraqch,iDemocracyfortheMiddleEast?Bah,humbug!DissidentVoice,February23,2003SeeYoucefBedjaou,iAbbasAroua,andMzianeAt-Larb,ieds,AnInquiryintotheAlgerianMassacres,Genve:Hoggar,1999,:,,1999,144~164SeeJamieGlazov,IsDemocracyintheMiddleEastPossible?FrontPageMagazinecom,September26,2002,=3373SeeMetinHeper,IslamandDemocracyinTurkey:TowardaReconciliation?MiddleEastJournal,Vol51,No1,Winter1997,pp32-43,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,(),,,,27中东伊斯兰国家民主化改革AmirTaherisRemarksatDebateIslamisIncompatiblewithDemocracy,May19,2004,:OxfordUniversityPress,1996;GlennRobinson,CanIslamistsBeDemocrats?TheCaseofJordan,MiddleEastJournal,Vol51,No3,Summer1997,pp373-387SeeGeorge(Sam)Hamontree,USNationalSecurityStrategyinTheMiddleEast:OperationalVictoriesandStrategicSetbacks,DefenseSystemDaily,22August2003,at:,,20064,1~6:,34,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,:,,,,,,;,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(责任编辑:樊小红责任校对:安春英)28西亚非洲2007年第4期SeeAbdoBaaklin,iGuilainDenoeux,andRobertSpringborg,LegislativePoliticsintheArabWorld,Boulder,Colo:LynneRienner,1999,pp30-31,,UnitedPressInternationalAnalysis:ArabProtestsWorryRegimes,24March2003SeeDavidShelby,USPledgesFullSupportforMiddleEastDemocratization,June28,2006,=washfile-english&y=2006&m=June&x=20060628104001SDyblehS01901667DevelopmentofIraqsPoliticalPartiesinPost-warRebuildingWangBopp.5-10TheDevelopmentofIraqspoliticalpartiesinthecourseofpoliticalrebuildingaftertheIraqWarreflectsmainlyintheenlargingconflictsbetweendi-fferentracesandreligiousparties.Inordertomeettheneedtorebuildingthedemocraticcountry,allkindsofracesandreligiousforcestriestoestablishpoliticalpartiesandenlargetheirpowersthroughe-lections.Becauseofthecriticalsocialcondition,allpoliticalpartiesestablishedtheirownmilitaryorgan-izationstomaintainandprotecttheirpowers.Thesepartiesalsoprovideemploymentopportunitiesandotheradvantagesfortheirsupporters.Thesetrianglepoliticalorganizations(politics,militaryandecono-my),areenlargingtheconflictsbetweentheracesandreligiouspartiesandweakeningthepowerofcentralgovernmen,tandwillexertfar-reachingin-fluenceinthefuture.InternalStructureandExternalPressureofthePoliticalDemocratizationintheMiddleEastYaoDaxue&CiZhigangpp17-22Themotiveforceofthepoliticaldemocratizationoriginatesintheinternalstructureandexternalpres-sureintheMiddleEastcountries.Thegrowthofin-ternalstructuremeetsthechangesofnationalpolit-icaltradition,economicdevelopmentandsocialstructure.Theroleoftheexternalpressureistobethecreatorandpromoterofdemocracy.InthecourseofdemocratizationintheMiddleEastcountries,theexternalpressureshouldcombinetheinternalforce,sothatcanpromotethegrowthanddevelopmentofdemocracy,thereforetheconsciousnessofdemocra-cywillbecomemorehealthyandprospective.DemocraticReforminMoslemCountriesinThe