XXXX年三季度上海高端住宅市场_高力

Source:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Researchಕ௮േྱ:εཊᴬ֟ކ᯽ᢴ኉᪂OUTLOOKFORQ420102010৪፼ݶࣛਇ᲍༶Rentalጕ᫓High-endApartmentᴬ፣ԕघServicedApartmentഡ֤ਨԕघVillaշࠋOverallMarketಗѬূޜCapitalValueۤсGrossYield౾ሖᄃHIGHLIGHTSAfterarelativelyquietperiodfromApriltoJuly,manynewresidentialprojectsenteredthemarketattheendofsummer.SinceAugust,transactionvolumeinShanghaisresidentialmarkethassurged,withaver-agepricesalsorebounding.AmidstthecontinuedstronggrowthofShanghaiseconomyandtheongoingEXPO,thedemandforhigh-endresidentialleasingcontinuedtorise.Asaresult,vacancyratescontinuedtoedgedownwardswhilerentalratesremainedstable.Theoutlookfortheresidentialmarketdependslargelyonthetimingandstrengthoffuturegovernmentpoli-cies.Shanghaiscomplementarytighteningmeasures,whichhaveyettobeissued,willprobablybean-nouncedinaccordancewiththemarketperformanceduringthefallsalesperiod.Forthehigh-endresiden-tialleasingmarket,followingthecompletionofExpo,itisforecastthatvacancyrateswillincreasewhilerentalswilldecrease.உٯᠮ်εཊѩ࣬ূޜᐻ؃ϸ4ഝᖨ7ഝሂ྅Հ೉നى࠰᫒ಬሠϖஇ׬ূуᲡᐥᐥޒࠦബԒূᖥ8ഝзേିЌ᫒ણ֓ݸל᭑ۤޡс؞ਹᰜቄεཊᐻ༸਺֮؟॑εཊοרѐሂି֢ϙ៙ᴬ፣Ⴅςጕᤠሂ᱂ຳθಪ౴לδࣛਇጿᒮᄃᑑᑖζᥠѦጕ᫓߫ഭҬிጯࣸฆূىന᥄ֱءԽϾഫേಃᎎ՛شሂ೉ᯆڏ֟ਇᨅᨅഫ՛ሂεཊᐲկୃѐሲূޜጏࣛ᭑ۤ៣ᄐሩളᓣ֧ޒᴬ፣ѩ࣬ጕᤠূޜᰜቄοרѐሂ׹पᚸৣጿᒮᄃѐഞୖלᴬጕ᫓ϯѐഞୖݸᚸOVERALLRESIDENTIALMARKETInQ32010therewerenomajorchangestothepolicyfundamentalsoftheShanghairesidentialmarket.TheChinaInsuranceRegulatoryCom-missionissuedInsuranceCapitalManagementMeasuresonAugust5th,whichwillallowinsurancecapitaltobeinvestedinthepropertysector.Althoughinsurancecompanieswillnotbeallowedtodirectlyinvestinrealestatedevelopment,therearenumerousotherwaysthattheycouldde-ploytheirsignificantcapitalreserves.Withdomesticinsurershaving4.57trillionyuanworthofcapitalthereshouldbesignificantliquidityavailableforpropertyinvestment,ofwhichamaximumof10%canbeinvestedinproperty.Theentranceofdomesticinsurerscouldbealifelineforsomedeveloperswhohavebeenadverselyimpactedbytheprevioustighteningmeasuresissuedbythegovernment.Meanwhile,theChinaBankingRegulatoryCommissionsuggestedcom-mercialbankssuspendthird-housingloansinselectiveareas,duetoun-expectedpricegrowthandlaggingnewsupplyintroductions.Asaresult,itseemsunlikelythatthegovernmentwillloosencreditpoliciesintheshorttermandcouldimplementfurtherpoliciestopreventanotherroundofdouble-digithousingpricegrowth.ಗѬѩ࣬ূޜಹ࢓঳͘උ॰఑ኻޭಹᬍ๻ཧηઋǍҝᅝфϸ಩ోᬵॱǒҝᫀ᠉ᦟᣑႾዎၸಌᛊև๵Ǔ͘ӱ᝗ҝᫀ᠉ᦟଛ᠉η֍Їኳహଛ᠉ᬺާǍᘶ྾ҝᫀԄ؝ηਅᅪ஡О϶૳ݤЇ৉؁ে᝜͘њؕЬݞԌУទߦᬺާ՞ႾУЯযߪᅅ᠉ᦟລǍݒԕҝᫀԄ؝ᯍᣉ݂βϼ־αᅃВᅅੌ᠉Їό͘ನߦؕଛ᠉૳ݤЇ͘ᣖኞᫀ᠉ࣚϸ૳ݤЇଛ᠉೓ឍᅫ০ؕ᜞ǍݒԕҝᫀԄ؝ᅅԲԁ፨ᅦղϒఢηߦᅅ૳йᚡ᠉༁ᤗߍ։ϳί೒ᤗᡑ͘፨ᤳЀ؄ղ಴វ஢৴ڑ͘᠉ᦟᨐ౟౲أጨᅅ৉؁ۆংϳ՞ࠏໂ੤Ǎةౖ͘ᨉᅝфেᝎۆρᨉᛊݞۆډѝ૳еബᣎᯍnjε໓ᣎਥnj҄নጨ৙ᅅݤֹ͘ಌӋ؁ఐδࠄ૳׽Ьεѝ૳៽ී͘ᣖᛓ౟఑মᣒ಴ηфೝ֍Ҡ៽఑ኻ͘ݵԩଅᛊଘդ૳еᣎਥε໓ᅅ఑ኻǍSHANGHAIʼ๑
THEKNOWLEDGEREPORT|Q32010|HIGH-ENDRESIDENTIALwww.colliers.com/chinaHigh-endResidentialMarketᯍኑѝࢣ॰ݧP.2|COLLIERSINTERNATIONALTHEKNOWLEDGEREPORT|Q32010|HIGH-ENDRESIDENTIAL05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0000501001502002502007.82007.112008.22008.52008.82008.112009.22009.52009.82009.112010.22010.52010.8RMB/sqm10,000sqmNewSupplyహ҄নTake-up᫱ฯAveragePrice૝Єݬе3-MonthMovingAverageofPriceݬеδϊ಩ቑ֍খݬӁHIGH-ENDRESIDENTIALLEASINGMARKETAtotalof793unitswerelaunchedintheleasingmarketinQ32010,in-cludingPujiangResidenceinHuangpu,YongyeApartmentPhaseIIinLu-wan,andTomsonRivieraGardenPhaseII.AmidstthedevelopmentofShanghaistwocentresstrategy(theFinanceandShippingindustries)andthesuccessfulongoingWorldEXPO,thedemandforhigh-endresidentialleasingcontinuedtorise.Theoccupancyratesofsomehigh-endservicedapartmentssurged,suchasAPAMANServicedApartmentandMarriottExecutiveApartment,toover90%.TheflowofEXPOvisitorsduringthesummeralsoprovidedpowerfulsupporttohigh-endpropertyleasing.Overall,theaveragevacancyrateforthehigh-endresidentialmarketdeclinedto16.6%,a1.9%dropcomparedwithlastquarter.ᴬ፣ѩ࣬ጕᤠূޜδࣛਇԙഞ793ࡋಬࠑጕᤠץԃԒূׂலѧϾᷟངוሂངເԕ᳖׮ྪוሂຯςԕघϼനڏངτሂໃᖣྤਉᘁݿϼനᰜቄεཊᐻ༸Ϗ੯ڏᗀ᧺Ϗ੯ਝᡲሂθಪཿԒεཊοרѐሂି֢ϙ៙ᴬ፣Ⴅςሂጕᤠ᱂ຳθಪ౴ל᪂դᴬ፣ഡ֤ਨԕघ຃ࡘႎ໵࿐ഡ֤ਨԕघڏβᣰ៙ಃԕघᎆԒѩᄃᴬ᧲90%зεഃനേؘᠲοרѐሂ࠰᫒ࣿ༯ϯϖᴬ፣Ⴅςሂጕᤠచґϸ਺ഞ֟ሂ౻ிδࣛਇᴬ፣ѩ࣬ূޜሂጿᒮᄃᄏ຃ζᥠ1.9%ᖨ16.6%InShanghai,transactionvolumesintheresidentialmarketreboundedsharplyinAugust,withanaveragepriceofoverRMB21,000persqm.Asaresultofthisnewdemand,agrowingnumberofbuildingslaunchedsalespromotionstocapitalizeonthiscurrentmarketstrength.ThemajorityofthesenewprojectshavetargetpricesaveragingbetweenRMB20,000and30,000persqm.Thevarietyofnewsupply,alongwiththesalespro-motions,aretheprimaryreasonsfortheimprovedmarketperformanceattheendofAugust.ݞεຽ͘಩૝Єᦞ੃ջ݄׀͘ᨒںݬеᠱᣎБด९෾খ఺ዺӲǍᠲ೓ᠲߦᅅඋᅢᣐئໂ៿᏿਑ၸ͘ᦘ؃ቁቁ᪵еғᨒૺ෶͘։ϛίЀ৉؁ۆϒϳݞל࣡բ೓ᅅÿᦟϨᨉֽĀᅅш፮ౘ࢓όତא॰ݧՌᭋ͘ίଐݬеݞ෾খ఺ዺβӲϛ᩹ᅅᬭᅦፉፉԁ॰͘Оᐂᤁ૝಩ಸ॰ݧ૝Єߪ঍݄׀͘ᨒںݬе؀ৡǍFigure2NewSupply,Take-up&VacancyinShanghaiHigh-endResidentialLeasingMarketއ2εཊᴬ፣ѩ࣬ጕᤠূޜಬࠑґৼಬ٦ᐢ؛ጿᒮᄃSource:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Researchಕ௮േྱ:εཊᴬ֟ކ᯽ᢴ኉᪂Figure4ShanghaiHigh-endResidentialCapitalValueTrendއ4εཊᴬ፣ѩ࣬сඣ᥄ֱއSource:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Researchಕ௮േྱ:εཊᴬ֟ކ᯽ᢴ኉᪂Figure1Supply,Take-upandAveragePriceofShanghaiResidentialMarketއ1εཊѩ࣬᭑ۤূޜґৼ᱂ຳ؛ޡсSource:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Researchಕ௮േྱ:εཊᴬ֟ކ᯽ᢴ኉᪂Note:ThefiguresshownhereincludePremiumGradeAandGradeAoffices(sameasbelow).༄ᢗއ៣ಕ௮ׂல᥌ᅹᐗ԰࣒ฆ؛ᅹᐗ԰࣒ฆзζއ៣هFigure3ShanghaiHigh-endResidentialRentalTrendbySub-sectorsއ3εཊᴬ፣ѩ࣬θهႥςᏕ߄ሂጕ᫓᥄ֱSource:Collie