基于事故树分析的压力管道风险评价方法研究

200906UDC10497StudyonRiskAssessmentMethodBasedonFaultTreeAnalysisinLongPipelines4300702009420095()()IIIAbstractAccidentsinpipelineshaveoccurredfrequentlyinthepastperiodofpipelinestransportingdevelopment.PressurePipelinessafetysituationisstern.Publictoleranceisnowdecreasing.Therefore,Riskreductioninhazardouspipelinesismoreandmoreimportant,suchasimprovementofmanagementsystem,reliabilityandriskanalysis.Theanalysisofmajoraccidentsinhazardouspipelinesunderlineshowthesystematiccontrolofthehazardsinvolvedisessentialforpreventionpurposes.Identificationofpipelinehazardsassociatedwiththedifferentpipelinesystemfunctionsisessentialforriskanalysisandhistoricaldataareofgreatimportance.InthelightofpipelineaccidentsoccurredinRussia,EuropeandtheUS,during70's-nearly90's,ananalysishasbeencarriedout,withtheaimoffullunderstandingtheaccidentsandaccidentalcausesastoprovideareferentialexperienceforthedailyoperationinthetypeelementarydivisionofpipeline.Distinctionshouldbemadebetweenseveralcategoriesofpipelinese.g.gasandhazardousliquidspipelines,sincetheassociatedrisksareofdifferentnatureandlevel.Itisalsoimportanttodistinguishbetweenrisksassociatedwithdifferentfunctionsofpipelinesystems.FTA(FaultTreeAnalysis)isaneffectivemethodtoevaluatethereliabilityandsecurityoflargecomplexsystem.Usingthisway,thefailureofoilandgaspipelinesisdiscussed.ThefaulttreeofoilandgasPipelinesisestablishedbyconsideringtwomajorfailuremodesofpipelines:leakingandrupture.Alltheminimalcut-setsaregotthroughqualitativeanalysis.Thebasicriskfactorsareinvestigatedthatcausefailureofpipelines.FaultTreeisalsoamodelthatquantitativeanalysisisbasedupon.Inthefaulttreequantitativeanalysisofoilandgaspipelines,duetolackingoftheenoughtest-dataandfield-data,thefuzzymathematicsanalysismethodisintroduced.Triangularfuzzy-numberdesignatedprobabilityofthebasiceventsinfaulttree.Amethod-Medianmethodforanalyzingfuzzysignificancewasprovidedtoorderthebasiceventsinfaulttree.Theprocessofcalculationandstepswerepresentedindetail.Thefuzzyprobabilityorderandclassificationarealsofound.ThemethodgiveninthisarticleisanewwaytotreatfuzzyfailureprobabilityofeventsinIIIoilandgaspipelines.Oilandgaspipelinescanberegardedasagreysystemforitscharacteristicandgreytheory,Greycorrelationanalysisisappliedinthemodelidentificationofthefaultdiagnosisandfaulttreeanalysis.Thepossibilityoffaultmodelcouldbejudgedcorrectlyinthefaulttreeanalysis,whichprovidesascientificbasisforfaulthandlinginordertoimprovethereliabilityandsecurityofthesystem.Thepaperisconcludedwiththepointofview.Detaileddistinctionshouldbemadebetweenpipelines;thedifferentfaulttreeshouldbeestablishedaccordingtodifferentpipelinesanddifferentpartofpipeline;appropriatequantitativeanalysisbaseduponfaulttreeshouldbeapplied;ascientificanddadabasesshouldbesetupformanager.Keywords:PressurepipelineFaultTreeAnalysisRiskassessmentFuzzyGreyIV..................................................................................3..................................................................................3..............................................................4......................................................................................5..........................................................................6..................................................................7...........................................................................................................10...................................................................................................12....................................................................13................................................................14...........................................................................................15...........................................................................................16....................................................................................18...................................................................................................20...................................................................................................20...............................................................................................22...................................................................................................................233.1...................................................................................................................253.23.3............................................................................................................30............................................................................................................30V................................................................................324.1.1.................................................................................................344.1.2.............................................................................................................345.4.1.....................