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Chapter11/Slide1Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.Chapter11DecisionMakingChapter11/Slide2Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.LearningObjectives1.Definedecisionmakinganddifferentiatewell-structuredandill-structuredproblems.2.Compareandcontrastperfectlyrationaldecisionmakingwithdecisionmakingunderboundedrationality.3.Discusstheimpactofframingandcognitivebiasesonthedecisionprocess.Chapter11/Slide3Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.LearningObjectives4.Explaintheprocessofescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.5.Considerhowemotionsandmoodaffectdecisionmaking.6.Summarizetheprosandconsofusinggroupstomakedecisions,withattentiontothegroupthinkphenomenonandriskassessment.7.Discusstechniquesforimprovingorganizationaldecisionmaking.Chapter11/Slide4Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.WhatIsDecisionMaking?•Decisionmakingistheprocessofdevelopingacommitmenttosomecourseofaction.•Threethingsarenoteworthyaboutdecisionmaking:–Itinvolvesmakingachoiceamongseveralactionalternatives.–Itisaprocess.–Itinvolvesacommitmentofresources.Chapter11/Slide5Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.WhatIsDecisionMaking?(continued)•Decisionmakingcanalsobedescribedasaprocessofproblemsolving.•Aproblemexistswhenagapisperceivedbetweensomeexistingstateandsomedesiredstate.Chapter11/Slide6Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.Well-StructuredProblems•Aproblemforwhichtheexistingstateisclear,thedesiredstateisclear,andhowtogetfromonestatetoanotherisfairlyobvious.•Theseproblemsaresimple,andtheirsolutionsarouselittlecontroversy.•Theyarerepetitiveandfamiliarandtheycanbeprogrammed.•Aprogramisastandardizedwayofsolvingaproblem.Chapter11/Slide7Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.Well-StructuredProblems(continued)•Programsshort-circuitthedecision-makingprocessbyenablingthedecisionmakertogodirectlyfromproblemidentificationtosolution.•Theyarealsoknownasrules,routines,standardoperatingprocedures,orrulesofthumb.•Theyprovideausefulmeansofsolvingwellstructuredproblems.•Programsareonlyasgoodasthedecision-makingprocessthatledtotheadoptionoftheprograminthefirstplace.Chapter11/Slide8Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.Ill-StructuredProblem•Aproblemforwhichtheexistinganddesiredstatesareunclearandthemethodofgettingtothedesiredstateisunknown.•Uniqueandunusualproblemsthathavenotbeenencounteredbefore.•Theytendtobecomplexandinvolveahighdegreeofuncertainty.•Theyfrequentlyarousecontroversyandconflict.Chapter11/Slide9Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.Ill-StructuredProblem(continued)•Theycannotbesolvedwithprogrammeddecisions.•Decisionmakersmustresorttonon-programmeddecisionmaking.•Theycanentailhighriskandstimulatestrongpoliticalconsiderations.Chapter11/Slide10Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.TheCompleatDecisionMaker–ARationalDecision-MakingModel•Arationaldecisionmakermightuseamodelthatinvolvesasequenceofstepsthatarefollowedwhenmakingadecision.Chapter11/Slide11Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.TheRationalDecisionMakingProcessChapter11/Slide12Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.PerfectRationality•Perfectrationalityisadecisionstrategythatiscompletelyinformed,perfectlylogical,andorientedtowardeconomicgain.•TheprototypeforperfectrationalityistheEconomicPersonwhoistheperfect,cool,calculatingdecisionmaker.Chapter11/Slide13Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.PerfectRationality(continued)•EconomicPersoncharacteristics:–cangatherinformationwithoutcostandiscompletelyinformed;–isperfectlylogical;and–onlycriterionfordecisionmakingiseconomicgain.•Theseperfectlyrationalcharacteristicsdonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Chapter11/Slide14Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.BoundedRationality•HerbertSimonrecognizedthattherationalcharacteristicsofEconomicPersondonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.•Hesuggestedthatmanagersuseboundedrationality.•Boundedrationalityisadecisionstrategythatreliesonlimitedinformationandthatreflectstimeconstraintsandpoliticalconsiderations.Chapter11/Slide15Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.BoundedRationality(continued)•Framingandcognitivebiasesillustratetheoperationofboundedrationality,asdoestheimpactofemotionsandmoodondecisions.•Framingreferstotheaspectsofthepresentationofinformationaboutaproblemthatareassumedbydecisionmakers.•Howproblemsanddecisionalternativesareframedcanhaveapowerfulimpactonresultingdecisions.Chapter11/Slide16Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.CognitiveBiases•Cognitivebiasesaretendenciestoacquireandprocessinformationinaparticularwaythatispronetoerror.•Theyconstituteassumptionsandshortcutsthatcanimprovedecision-makingefficiency,buttheyfrequentlyleadtoseriouserrorsinjudgment.Chapter11/Slide17Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.ProblemIdentificationandFraming•Boundedrationalitycanleadtothefollowingdifficultiesinproblemidentification:–Perceptualdefence.–Problemdefinedintermsoffunctionalspecialty.–Problemdefinedintermsofsolution.–Problemdiagnosedintermsofsymptoms.Chapter11/Slide18Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.ProblemIdentificationandFraming(continued)•Whenaproblemisidentified,itisframedinsomeway.•A$10,000expenditurecanbeframedasacostoraninvestment.•Differentdecisionframescanleadtoverydifferentdecisions.Chapter11/Slide19Copyright©20