国际货币基金组织报告

©2010InternationalMonetaryFundFebruary2010IMFCountryReportNo.10/55Januaryxdfg29,2001January29,2001January29,2001January29,20012009January29,2001Bangladesh:2009ArticleIVConsultation—StaffReport;StaffSupplement;PublicInformationNoticeontheExecutiveBoardDiscussionUnderArticleIVoftheIMF’sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2009ArticleIVconsultationwithBangladesh,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage:•Thestaffreportforthe2009ArticleIVconsultation,preparedbyastaffteamoftheIMF,followingdiscussionsthatendedonOctober29,2009,withtheofficialsofBangladeshoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonDecember23,2009.TheviewsexpressedinthestaffreportarethoseofthestaffteamanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardoftheIMF.•AstaffsupplementofDecember29,2009,onthejointIMF/WorldBankdebtsustainabilityanalysis.•APublicInformationNotice(PIN).Thedocumentlistedbelowhasbeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased.SelectedIssuesPaperThepolicyofpublicationofstaffreportsandotherdocumentsallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformation.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFund•PublicationServices70019thStreet,N.W.•Washington,D.C.20431Telephone:[phone]•Telefax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]::DiscussionswereheldinDhakaduringOctober19-29,2009.ThestaffteammetwithFinanceMinisterA.M.A.Muhith,FinanceSecretaryM.Tareque,AdvisoronFinancetothePrimeMinisterMashiurRahman,CentralBankGovernorAtiurRahman,andotherseniorofficials.Theteamalsometwithrepresentativesofdonors,NGOs,business,labor,themediaandacademics.Themission’sconcludingstatementwaspublishedat:Mr.Miyazaki(head),Mr.Almekinders,Ms.Maslova(allAPD),Mr.ArzedelGranado(FAD),andMr.Maino(MCM),assistedbytheresidentrepresentative,Mr.Dunn.Mr.Patra(SeniorAdvisortotheExecutiveDirector)participatedinkeymeetings.Focus:Discussionscenteredon(i)short-termpoliciestodealwithexcessliquidityandtopreventanaccelerationofinflation;and(ii)longer-termpoliciestoboostgrowththroughtaxpolicyreformandhigherpublicinvestment.The2008ArticleIVConsultationwascompletedonSeptember19,2008.Directors’commentsareat=22419.0Exchangeregime:Thedejureregimeisafloatbutthedefactoregimeisstabilizedastheexchangeratehasremainedcloseto69takaperU.S.dollarsincetheendof2006.Arestrictionremainsinplaceontheconvertibilityandtransferabilityofproceedsofcurrentinternationaltransactionsinnonresidenttakaaccounts.Statisticalissues:Dataareadequateforsurveillanceanddeficiencies,identifiedthroughtechnicalassistance,arebeingaddressed.2ContentsI.Background....................................................................................................................4II.RecentEconomicDevelopments...................................................................................4III.EconomicOutlook.........................................................................................................6IV.MacroeconomicPolicyDiscussions..............................................................................8A.ContainingExcessLiquidity....................................................................................8B.ImprovingExchangeRateManagement..................................................................9C.BoostingGrowthThroughHigherCapitalSpending.............................................10D.ReformsofEnergyPricesandState-OwnedEnterprises(SOEs)..........................12E.FinancialSectorReforms.......................................................................................13V.OtherIssues..................................................................................................................14VI.StaffAppraisal.............................................................................................................14Boxes1.HowdidBangladeshdoublecentralbankreservesamidtheglobalcrisis?..................52.ChallengesinCashManagement...................................................................................93.IstheleveloftheREERappropriate?.........................................................................11Figures1.RealandFiscalSectorIndicators,2001-09.................................................................162.MonetaryandExternalSectorIndicators,2001-09.....................................................173.RecentDevelopmentsinMoneyandForeignExchangeMarkets...............................18Tables1.KeyEconomicIndicators,2007-2014.........................................................................192.BalanceofPayments,2007-2014........