《市场透视--北京高档住宅市场》

PropertyTimesBeijingFirstquarter20052005AquarterlyoverviewofBeijingresidentialmarketContentsMarketReview1Supply1RentalandVacancy2Sales3MarketOutlook4MarketReviewTheoverallresidentialmarketwarmedupinQ12005withgrowthindemandforallkindsofresidentialproperties.Newsupplyinservicedandleasingapartmentmarketwasseen.Thehigh-endleasingapartmentmarketwasrelativelyactivethisquarter.Itsoccupancywentupsharply.Servicedapartmentmarketremainedsteady.Vacancyrateofhigh-levelvillaswentupbecauseofnewsupply.Intermsofgovernmentpolicies,thePeople'sBankofChinaadjustedcommercialbanks'self-supportmortgageloanpolicy.Thenewpolicysuggestedtocontrolthelower-limitoncommodityhousing'smortgagelendingrateandtoincreasetheminimumdownpaymentincitiesorareaswhererealestatepricesarerisingtoorapidly.SupplyWithregardstoservicedapartments,oneofthetwobuildingsofMarriottExecutiveApartmentsPalmSprings-Beijingenteredthemarketthisquarter.Othernewprojects,suchasBeijingGolfPalaceandParkAvenue,alsoenteredthehigh-endleasingapartmentmarketthisquarter.However,manyareforowner-occupationandonlyafewunitsareavailableforleasing.Asforthevillas,althoughnewprojectssuchasGrandHillsenteredtheleasingmarketafterChineseNewYear,unitsavailableforleasingwerelimitedandtheirimpactontheoverallvillaleasingmarketwasminimal.Onthesalesfront,newluxuryresidentialprojectsaremostlylocatedinnorthernBeijing.Ineasternareas,someprojectsintroducedtheirlatterphase,e.g.YosemiteAreaC.However,thenumberofnewunitslaunchedtothemarketwaslimited.1Table1NewLeasingSupplyinQ1,2005DistrictProjectNameTotalUnitsUnitArea(grosssqm)AskingRental(US$/unit/month)(//)ChaoyangLaneBridgeVillaPhaseI153*300-5617,000-13,000ChaoyangGrandHillsChaoyangChinaCentralPlace116*258-3384,300-5,600400*60-200720-2,400Remark:*Includingunitsoccupiedbylandlords.*ChaoyangMarriottExecutiveApartmentsPalmSprings-Beijing224123-2853,000-5,5002RentalPricesandVacancyInsum,theaverageluxuryresidentialrentalwasstablethisquarter.Vacancyforleasingapartmentsdecreasedquitenoticeablyby3.6%.Overallvacancyofservicedapartmentsremainedstablewhilethatofvillasroseslightly.Inviewofservicedapartments,introductionofnewprojectsdidnotbringmuchpressuretothemarket.AveragerentalremainedstableatUS$20.1/month/sqm.High-endservicedapartmentsthatarewell-managedwithfullamenitiesarealwaysthemostfavorablechoiceforexpatriates.Therefore,thevacancyrateofsuchhigh-endservicedapartmentswasthelowestamongallservicedapartments,at10.4%.Somenewunitsthatcompletedattheendoflastyearbegantobelaunchedintotherentalmarketthisquarter.ThenumberofstaffrelocatingtoBeijinghaveincreasedasmanycompaniesexpandedtheirinvestmentandbusinessesinChina.Strongdemandbroughtthevacancyratefrom34.5%to20.6%.TheaveragerentalofleasingapartmentsremainedstableatUS$15.3/month/sqm.AfterChineseNewYear,manyseniorexecutivesofmultinationalcompa-niesreturnedtoBeijingwiththeirfamilies.Demandforvillasincreased.ItsaveragerentalroseslightlytoUS$21.8/month/sqm.Theaveragevacancyrateincreasedduetonewsupplytothemarket.Table2NewProjectsinQ1,2005DistrictProjectNameTotalUnitsUnitArea(grosssqm)AskingPrice(RMB/sqm)(/)231265-320ShunyiYosemiteAreaCC39440-520ChaoyangCathayVilla3-5Million/Unit300-500/5-6Million/Unit500-600/3Chart1RentalandPriceIndexofBeijingResidentialMarket2000Q1=100RentalIndexPriceIndexSalesTheaverageluxuryresidentialpriceremainedstable.Pricesofselectedprojectshaveincreased.DTZ'ssurveyindicatesthatthehigh-endresidentialpriceindexofBeijingwas98.6inQ105.InthesubmarketofShunyi,theaveragepricerosemorenoticeablythanothersubmarketsbecauseofthelaunchofnewluxuryprojectssuchasCathayView.Table3BeijingResidentialRentalAndVacancyinQ1,2005UnitintermsofUS$permonthpergrosssqmGradePropertyTypeLeasingApartmentsServicedApartmentsVillasRentVacancyRateRentVacancyRateRentVacancyRateHigh-End$21.620.6%$26.310.4%$21.817.5%Mid-End$15.118.3%$19.025.0%$15.518.6%Low-End$8.614.7%$12.127.0%Overall$15.317.9%$20.119.6%$18.918.0%Source:DTZResearch4MarketOutlookCompanies'expansionsandtheirnewbusinessinitiativesinChinawillbringadditionalexpatriatestoBeijing.Demandforservicedapartmentswillcontinuetoincrease.Withlimitednewsupply,themarketisexpectedtogoupnextquarterandslightgrowthinrentalmayberecorded.Inaddition,asnewsupplyisabsorbedgradually,vacancyrateswillcontinuetodecline.Forluxuryleasingapartments,newprojectswillcontinuetoexertpressureonthemarket.ProjectsenteringthemarketinQ105willgrowintoabetterlivingcommunityeventually.Furthermore,projectsatprimelocationwithbeautifulenvironmentsettingsandreasonableunitlayoutaremostattractivetotenants.Theaveragerentalwillremainsteady.Duetothecontrolinvilla'slandsupplybythegovernment,newsupplyofhigh-endvillaswillremainsteadyinthenearfuture.Themarketrentalisexpectedtomaintainatitscurrentlevelasdemandremainsstrong.Asforthehigh-endresidentialsalesmarket,somenewprojectswillbelaunchedontothemarketnextquarter.Demandforhigh-endprojectsremainedstrong.High-endresidentialpricesstillhaveroomtoincreasefurther.FollowingthePeople'sBankofChina'sdocument,commercialbanksinBeijingalteredtheirmortgagelendingratesinMarch.Theborrowingcos