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中国植物油产业及市场特点主要内容•中国概况•中国植物油供需状况•中国植物油市场与国际植物油市场•生物柴油对油脂市场的影响•中国植物油市场特点•油脂市场展望China中国概况20072008Population人口1,3311,339millionPopulationGrowthRate人口增长率0.63%0.66%UrbanPopulation43.00%RateofUrbanization城市化进度2.70%annualArea(millionsquarekm)Total9.5979.597Land9.3269.326Water0.270.27ArableLand可耕地14.86%14.86%GDP(PurchasingPowerParities)7.0437.8trilliondollarsGDP(OfficialExchangeRate)3.2494.222trilliondollarsGDPRealGrowthRate13.00%9.80%GDPPerCapita$5,300$6,000GDPCompositionbySectorAgriculture11.70%10.60%Industry49.20%49.20%Service39.10%40.20%AgricultureProductsrice,wheat,potatoes,corn,peanuts,tea,millet,barley,apples,cotton,oilseed;pork;fishLabourForcebyOccupationAgriculture43%43%Industry25%25%Service32%32%InflationRate(ConsumerPrices)通胀4.70%6.00%Export1.2211.465trilliondollarsImport0.9171.156trilliondollarsReserveofForeignExchangeandGold1.4932.033trilliondollarsStockofFDIathome758.9758.9billiondollarsStockofFDIabroad93.75139.3billiondollarsExchangeRate(US$:CNY)7.616.9385中国植物油需求200720082009人口Population(million)1,3311,3391,348人均植物油消费Percapitaconsumption(kg)1717.617.8总需求TotalDemand22,62723,56623,990年增长YOYGrowth4.2%1.8%GDPGrowth13.0%9.8%8.0%Inflation4.7%6.0%Urbanization2.7%2.7%2.7%总需求TotalDemand22,62723,56623,990国产供应量DomesticSupply8,1098,10934%34%缺口Deficit15,45715,881国产油籽油料及植物油产量YEARSoyBeansPeanutsRapeseedsCottonSeedsSunflowerSeedsOthersTotal年度大豆花生菜籽棉籽葵花籽其它总量200015,41014,44011,3807,5101,9501,98052,670200115,41014,42011,3309,0401,4801,88053,560200216,50014,95010,5308,3602,0002,05054,390200316,90015,05012,4008,5001,9902,11056,950200417,40014,31013,18010,7401,9702,11059,710200516,35014,34013,0509,5001,9702,11057,320200615,80014,61010,70011,0001,9702,11056,190200712,72513,02910,50013,7221,9702,11054,056200815,50013,60210,87513,1391,8002,10057,016Crush压榨量3,5005,70010,75011,4004001,80033,550OilProd折油5781,6763,7631,4251685008,109MainlandChinaConsumesMuchLessVegoilThanTaiwanandHongKong:ThereisstillBIGGROWTHPOTENTIAL.中国大陆地区人均植物油消费量远低于台湾和香港–巨大的增长潜力67.38.69.29.912.115.216.016.921.221.827.628.2051015202530199419961998200020022004200620072006200720062007MainlandTaiwanHongKongPerCapita(kg)4.9kg11.3kg中国植物油需求的快速增长主要依靠进口大豆、棕榈油和豆油来满足IncreasingOilDemandWillBeMetbyImportedSoybeans,PalmOilandSoybeanOil7Historyandprojectionsfor2001to201005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/0909/10Year'000MTPalmOil-ImportedSoyBeanOil-ImportedSoyBeanOil–ProducedfromChineseCrushOtherOilsRapeseedOil–LocallyProduced供应发展趋势：Trends-Supply–国产油籽油料产量增加空间有限Localoilseedsproductionhaslittleroomtoincrease•Arablelandloss耕地流失•Scale&Yield缺少规模，单产偏低•Policy&Acreageswitching:soybeansvscorn,rapeseedvswheat粮食为先•Urbanization:labourforce城市化–植物油供应对进口的依赖性越来越高Vegoilsupplywillbemoreandmoredependentonimportedoilseedsandoils•Oilseedsimport:soybeansvsrapeseeds/canola•Chinesesoybeancrushhasbeenandwillcontinuetobemeal-led•Theimportdutydifferencesbetweensoybeanandoilfavourssoybeanimport•Oilsimport:palmoils,soyabeanoilorrapeseedoil–植物油出口量有限，但非转基因植物油和玉米油仍会有需求OilExportability•Cornoil•NonGMOsoybeanoil8中国耕地流失情况ArableLandLoss•Urbanization•Reforestation•Pollution•Restructuring•1985total140millionha•2007total123millionha•2020governmenttargettomaintain120millionha9MOAChinaStatisticsYeararablelanddecrease(ha)2006307,0002005361,6002004800,30020032,537,40020021,971,000中国主要油脂平衡表(数据来源《油世界》，单位：千吨）01/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/08期初库存15071202.81254.4177917871718.61968.9产量总量16060.516396.716957.518516.419467.819426.219386.9菜油4268.53728.84136.44607.74764.84637.74090.9豆油3555.24469.74695.45341.65937.963606483花生油2466.82277.22113.32046.12038.22026.41927.6棉籽油1391.61299.212831543.91524.41678.31790.1葵籽油204245.4220.9196220.9218.2218.2玉米油4950.757.9108170203210其他4174.44376.44508.54781.14981.64505.64667.1进口量总量3800.65668.27432.47026.27633.39402.710628.3菜油48114.7356.7209.544.1181267豆油546.51756.12798.71728.21516.217003000葵籽油1949935.310010棕榈油26003166.93569.943195182.456606200棕仁油96.5139.4149.9225.3247.3375.7450椰子油132.5133.5114131.617190155其他376.1348.6394.2403.64371296546.3出口量总量11661.177.1154.6417238.6192使用量总量20049.321952.223788.22538026790.42834029780菜油4413.33894.64336.14767.24719.947504400豆油4222.46032.87309.37154.47323.879209375花生油2491.32296.92087.72027.12025.720221945葵籽油205.9254.7266.8211.3250.9316230棕榈油2575.13155.43423.94263.15168.65639.66150棕仁油96.5139.4149.7225247.2375.7450椰子油133.5141.5116131.516893153棉籽油1379.51320.21273.91520.31532.216501780其他7023.17013.66912.57107.27379.87595.75297期末库存1202.81254.4177917871718.61968.92012.1GDP增长率9.1%10.0%10.1%10.4%10.7%13.0%10%油脂用量增长率8.7%9.5%8.4%6.7%5.6%5.8%5.1%进口统计进口统计02/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/09大豆21,41116,92925,80028,31228,71437,82840,000棕榈油3,1043,5684,3074,9255,1655,5666,050豆油1,7162,7251,7751,5102,4012,7253,000菜籽513283156759626372,650菜油11034621544311277240总计26,39223,89632,41235,46637,55347,03351,940折油8,9129,90911,20212,00013,59315,83417,803-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00002/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/09大豆棕榈油豆油菜籽菜油总计折油WorldVegoilsProduction全球植物油产量逐年增加，预计08/09年全球9大类主要植物油产量可达13060万吨，比07/08年度增加3.3%.预计09/10年全球9大类主要植物油产量可达13640万吨，比08/