从利率_周期_房价的变化看房地产走势

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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()JournalofSoutheastUniversity(PhilosophyandSocialScience)Jan12010Vol112No.1,,(,210096)[],,:,,[];;;[]F293135[]A[]16712511X(2010)0120031205[]2009-06-15[](1950-),,,,:,,,,,!20035121,,,1.:,,GDP,200725280,30.2%(2007),(1),[1],22007M2,,,,200716.10%,20061.03,M212007(:2007)16.72%(2007),,22007M2(:2007)2.©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.,,1998200633(:2007)3,:(1)2001,(2)20012004,,,20032004,(3)2004,,,(I)(P/P)199820061119982006199819992000200120022003200420052006I7.566.085.855.855.45.315.365.585.85P/P3.30-0.482.872.753.694.8417.814.036.29:R()=-0.39;R0.4;:,:P/P=26.08-3.4I4.:(1),(2),,,(3),1.,23()12©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,,[2],241986200722219862007()(%)()(%)()(%)()(%)19863019.618.71010.0199724941.18.63178-1.219873640.920.615048.4199828406.213.9361413.719884496.523.525771.3199929854.75.1410313.519894737.75.42725.8200032917.710.3498421.519904449.3-6.1253-7.0200137213.513.0634427.319915508.823.833632.8200243499.916.9779122.819927855.042.6731117.6200355566.627.71015430.3199312457.958.61938165.1200470477.426.81315829.6199417042.936.8255431.8200588773.626.01590920.9199520019.317.5314923.32006109998.223.91942322.1199622974.014.832162.12007137239.024.82528030.2:19862007419862007,[3](1),19851990,1985,1991,,,,19871988,1988,1988198771.3%,,,1990,1990(2),19911997,1992,1992,,,,,1993,1993165.1%19937,,,,,,,1996,2.1%,1997,(-1.2%)(3),1998,,1998,,,,720%,1997,,2.:(1),,331,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.;,71.3%165.1%,200030%(2),2003,,,4,2003(3),20%30%,3.,,,,,,:(1),,,,,,,,(2),,,(3),,,,,,,:,,,?,,,[4],,:(1),,,,(2),,,;,,,,(3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,1.,,,,,2.43()12©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,,3.,,,,,,4.,,20078(24),,![][1].:[EB/OL].[2005-11-29].[2].[J].,2007(8).[3],.[J].,2006(1).[4],,.[J].,2006(3).112223,1122,,,,,,()531,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(PhilosophyandSocialScience)No.1,2010ABSTRACTS(1)ThebasicissuesoftheoreticalsystemofChinesesocialismBIANMin5ThetheoreticalmodernizationofMarxisminChinaisreflectedinthetheoreticalsystemofChinesesocialismincludingDengXiaopingTheory,theimportantthoughtofThreeRepresentsandtheScientificOutlookonDevelopment.Asatheoreticalsystemwithintegrallogicstructure,somefundamentalsareinevitablycontainedinit.HuJintaomadeasummaryofMarxism,socialism,partyanddevelopment,whichrepresentsthefundamentalsofthetheoreticalsystemofChinesesocialism.AglobalmasteryofthesefundamentalsprovidesabettertheoreticalfoundationforthePartysideologicalconstruction.(2)BuildingaMarxistlearningpartyXUTeng,CHENZhao2de10TobuildaMarxistlearningpartyisalogicalconclusionfromthehistoricalexperienceoftheCommunistPartyofChinaanditisalsothedecisivefactorforthePartysadvancement.AMarxistpartyischaracterizedbypossessingthecommonwish,promotingpersonalmastery,keepingonlearningandfocusingonsystematicalreflections.TobuildaMarxistlearningparty,itisnecessarytoovercomelearningdifficulties,enrichlearningcontent,adoptascientificlearningmethod,establishaneffectivelearningsystem,delayertheorganizations,createalearningatmosphere,buildanorganizationoflearningpartyandcultivateleadersofalearningparty.(3)ThepriceadjustmentmechanismofPPPprojectbasedonsatisfactionofparticipantsLIQi2ming,XIONGWei,YUANJing2feng16PPPprojectshavealongoperationperiod.ThechangesofthePPPprojectswillinevitablyleadtotheadjustmentsofpricesandsubsidies.Basedonthebalanceofthetripartite(thepublicsector,theprivatesectorandthegeneralpublic)satisfactionmechanism,adynamicpriceandsubsidymodelforPPPprojectswasstructured.Atfirst,thetripartitecriticalobjectivessystemandthefeedbackmechanismofcriticalobjectiveswereidentified.Then,byusingsystemdynamics,theinsidereflectionmodeloftheseprojectobjectiveswasestablished.Finally,theadjustmentmechanismofpricingwasdesignedtothesatisfactionofallstakeholders.(4)AstudyonprocessandcriterionofprojectlifecycledesignCHENGHu,ZHANGBei2bei,LUOYan21Lifecycledesignofconstructionprojectmeanstoapplylifecycletheoryinconstructiondesignprocess,whichisthereflectionofscientificdevelopmentconceptandmodernprojectinnovation.Thelifecycledesignprocessofconstructionprojectwasestablishedbasedontheconceptionoflifecycle.Bytakingtheideologyofrunningacountryasthegeneralguidingprinciples,thecriterionoflifecycledesignwasformulated,includingreliabilityandsafety,constructability,maintainablility,expansibility,humanization,environmentfriendliness,disasterandemergencypreventionandlifecyclecostoptimization.Accordingtointegratedmanagementthought,theintegrationprocessoflifecycledesignwasalsoestablished.(5)Modularity,productiondisintegrationandserviceoutsourcingSUNShao2qin25Modularitycanbeclassif

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