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©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,678000):2009,,,,:;;;:O21211:A:1007-9793(2009)05-0039-07,,,10%,7090,611,,,,?,,[3]:;[9]8,;[10]:,,,Logistic,1,?,()(1)2(29520099JournalofYunnanNormalUniversityVol.29No.5Sep.20093:2009-04-24:(1973-),,,,,1©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.’EmploymentCompetitionEvaluationSystem),,,,,,,,,,Logistic,,Logistic211LogisticLogistic,:()Y,,Y:A,Y=1,Y=0()X=(X1,X2,,XP):X,A(Y=1)p(X)X:p(X)=P(Y=1|X)=e0+1x1+pxpÞ(1+e0+1x1+pxp(1),X,A(Y=0):P(Y=0|X)=1-P(Y=1|X)=1-p(X)=(1+e0+1x1+pxp)-1,X,A(Y=1)A(Y=0):p(X)1-P(X)=P(Y=1|X)P(Y=0|X)=e0+1x1+pxp,Logistic:Inp(X)1-p(X)=+pi=1iXi+,Xii:i0,Xj;,XiLogistic,:lnL=Ni=1[yi(0+1xi1+pxip)-ln(1+exp(0+1xi1+pxip))]Logistic:,i^i,Wald,:W=^iÞD(^i)D(^i)i^ii^iWald,,212Logistic,::,Y,:,Y=1;Y=004()29©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(01)x1,x2,,x9:x1,x2,:211x1=1,x1=0;x2=1,x2=0;x3,:x3=0,x3=1;x4,x5,:x4=0,x4=1;x5=0,x5=1;x6,:x6=0,x6=1;x7,:x7=0,x7=1;x8,:x8=0,x8=1;x9,:x9=0,x9=1;Logistic:Inp(x)1-p(x)=+9i=1ixi+,p(x)=P(Y+1|x)x,x=(x1,,x9),,i(i=1,2,9)xi,,,,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9211213213112003::20036,SPSS1:12003Tab11RegressionAnalysisoftheFactorsAffectingEmploymentCompetitiveForceof200321111115010011103701001010270105110290105014390105014490101013820110014620110011090108-01248010321,=011,,80%,,:Inp1-p=-01248+11115x1+11037x2+01027x3+11209x4+01439x5+01449x6+01382x7+01462x8+01109x9145,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:22005Tab12RegressionAnalysisoftheFactorsAffectingEmploymentCompetitiveForceof2005)211014780100501342010070145101311013730103801257010160110101005012080106601074011730110501008-01373010472,=0105,,79%,,:Inp1-p=-01373+01478x1+01342x2+01451x3+01373x4+01257x5+01101x6+01209x7+01074x8+01105x9213132007:,SPSS3:32007Tab13RegressionAnalysisoftheFactorsAffectingEmploymentCompetitiveForceof2007211014760100101314010040136701264013540100401307010060118301007012910100401106010890113401007-01073010524()29©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=0105,,78%,,:,:Inp1-p=-01073+01476x1+01314x2+01367x3+01354x4+01307x5+01183x6+01291x7+01106x8+01134x921314:3,,4:4Tab14TheComprehensiveAnalysisoftheFactorsAffectingEmploymentCompetence2110169001003015460105012820100701585010010133401050121901010129401006012140108011160103-012310143,:Inp1-p=01231+01690x1+01546x2+01282x3+01585x4+01334x5+01219x6+01294x7+01214x8+01116x9,,:,,3,:(1):,:,,,345,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,(2)::,:,,,(3)::,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,::4,:,,(),:,,,:[1]1[M]1:120051[2]1[M]1:119831101393-4171[3],,1[J]112004,(11):55-631[4],,,12005[J]1,2006,27(1):31-381[5]1[R]1,2007-11-21(5)1[6]12001-2003[M]1:12006161[7],1[J]1,2004,(1):120-1221[8],1[J]1,2006,18(1):114-1181[9]1[J]112006,22(3):17-1944()29©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[10],1[J]1,2004(2):82-881[11]1[J]1,2005,4(3):10-121AnalysisontheCompetitiveForceofEmploymentoftheCollegeGraduatesYANGChun-hua,YANGLing(BaoshanTeacherCollege,Baoshan,Yunnan,678000)Abstract:Accordingtosevereemploymentsituationandemploymentofcollegegraduatesof2009,acom2prehensive,scientificcollegegraduatesevaluationsystemofemploymentbasedontheLarge-scalenationwideinvestigationdataofemployment1Throughtheregressionanalysisofmathematicalstatistics,analysisingfactorsofimpactionofcollegegraduatesemployabilityandcompetitiveness,toimprovetheemployabilityandcompeti2tivenessofstudents,universities,graduatesofthecommunityandsolvethecurrentsevereemploymentsitua2tion1Keywords:competitiveforce;evaluatingsystem;regressionanalysis;Countermeasures(38)[4]ThomsW1Influencediagnosticforthecross-validatedsmoothingparameterinsplinesmoothing[J]1JAmerStatistAssoc,1991,86:693-6981[5]KimC1Cooksdistanceinsplinesmoothing[J]1StatistProbabLett11996,32:139-1441[6],1[J]1,2001,24(4):568-5811[7],,1[J]1,2004,19(3):323-3321[8]GreenPJ,SilvermanBW1NonparametricRegressionandGeneralizedLinearModels[M]1London:ChapmanandHall,19941[9]1[M]1:,20031DiagnosticandinfluenceanalysisforPoissonregressionmodelSHIHong-xing(ElementaryEducationalCollege,ChuxiongNormalUniversity,YunnanChuxiong675000)Abstract:ThepapershowedthatthecasedeletionmodelsisequivalenttothemeanshiftoutliermodelforPoissonregressionmodel1Severaldiagnosticmeasuresarederived1Thenumericalexampleillustratesthatthemethodisavailable1Keywords:Poissonregressionmodel;diagnostic;influenceanalysia;case-deletion;meanshift;Cooksdistance;Scoretest545,: