一种体现发展趋势的动态综合评价方法

256Vol．25No．6201612OPEＲATIONSＲESEAＲCHANDMANAGEMENTSCIENCEDec．20162014-08-##7107103071071031N1304060041981-1990-1952-1986-。110004、。“”。。C934A1007-3221201606-0175-06doi10．12005/orms．2016．0217ADynamicComprehensiveEvaluationMethodEmbodyingDevelopmentTendencyYIPing-taoZHOUYiGUOYa-junLIWei-weiSchoolofBusinessAdministrationNortheasternUniversityShenyang110004ChinaAbstractAimingtoconsiderthedevelopmenttrendoftheevaluationindexindynamiccomprehensiveevalua-tionthepaperconstructsadynamiccomprehensiveevaluationmodelofdevelopmenttendencyconsideringthein-fluencesoftheevaluationindexdevelopmenttendencyindexweightsandtimeweights．Thedevelopmentfactorisdefinedtodenotethedevelopmenttrendoftheevaluationindex．Onthebasisofscatterdegreetheattributeweightsareobtainedviathemethodtotheminimizethesumofsquaresofdeviations．Additionallythetimeweightsaredeterminedbythemodeloftimefunctionwhichimplieslayingmorestressonthepresentinformationthanonthepast．Finallythemodelisappliedtoevaluatethedegreeofthemacroeconomicdevelopmentofwest-ernChina．Keywordsdynamiccomprehensiveevaluationdevelopmentfactorscatterdegreeprogrammingmodeltimeweight0。“”“”1。、、、。①23Topsis②4～845678。9～11。、、。。1ns1s2…snmx1x2…xmt1t2…tNsixjxijtk。、、12。xijtk。、、。。、3φixjτkρjkwj=∑Nk=1τk∑mj=1wjx*ijki=12…n1x*ijk=ρijkxijkx*ijkρijktkwjjτktk。1．1。1ijtkρijkρijk=a－b1+expuijka＞0b＞02ρijkuijkρijk＞0abuijk=0k=1vijk－vijk－1tk－tk－1k=2…{N3uijkijvijktk－1tkijtk－1tkk=1uij1=0vijk=0k=1xijk－xijk－1tk－tk－1k=2…{N4vijkijxijktk－1tkijtk－1tkk=1vij1=0。3ρijkρijkuijkuijk→+∞ρijkauijk→－∞ρijka－b。ρijkρijkρijk。ρijk“”“”。uijk=0ρijk=1671201625a－b/2=1。uijk=0ρijk=11。uijk＞0ρijk＞11。uijk＜0ρijk＜11。γγ＞1ρmaxijkuijk/ρminijkuijk=γ5γnγ。2、3、4、5ρuijk=0=1abρijk。1．213。tkk=12…Nyitk=∑mj=1wjxijki=12…nk=12…N6s1s2…snxijtkyitkwjj=12…mmaxσ2=∑Nk=1∑ni=1yitk－珋y277“”珋y=0。。yitk=∑mj=1wjkx*ijki=12…nk=12…N88τk。w1kw2k…wmk9wj10wjw1kw2k…wmk。w1kw2k…wmk8maxε2=∑ni=1yitk－珋ytk29珋ytk=1n∑ni=1∑mj=1wjkx*ijk。wjminσ2=∑Nk=1∑ni=1∑mj=1wjk－wjx*ijk2s．t．∑mi=1wj=1wj0j=12…{m101．3τk。τk、14“”。2“”τkkτk=λk/∑Nk=1λkk=12…N11λk=exp－k－N22k=12…N12τkτk。1。1．41xijtk15。2xijtk34vijkuijk257716ρijk。3x*ijkxijtk910wjkwj。41112τk。51φixjτkρjkwj。6φixjτkρjkwj。216/、/、/、/、、、%、/8x1x2…x8w1w2…w8。17122006～2010。1“”vuργ=3a=4．316b=6．632。2x*91012。311、1231φ124。12006～2010w1w2w3w4w5w6w7w820060．06840．05300．11010．11550．01400．28280．24040．115720070．10450．10130．12010．13250．06440．17120．16710．138920080．14730．13370．15830．13820．05040．17590．08910．107220090．12150．19500．13500．12500．05520．15370．10340．111120100．15720．15500．15400．16090．03680．13120．13890．06602006～20100．13000．14680．13730．13930．04100．16430．15060．09072122006～2010200620072008200920100．380910．587210．619710．712810．877610．223470．260070．323760．365470．486860．359630．521720．514930．558730．782720．248260．347050．298170．379960．484970．1144110．1465110．1795120．2247120．2920120．186180．244480．279490．297880．415380．0854120．1449120．1878110．2346110．2941110．369020．482530．517520．582820．739830．154690．217890．2571100．2914100．3779100．1450100．2073100．285680．293890．408790．252950．335160．391440．430440．566440．259540．353840．356550．387950．536653122006～201020062007200820092010τk0．00020．00630．07720．34590．57048712016254122006～20100．7990．6830．6670．5040．4700．4330．4310．3630．3580．3380．2640．25912345678910111224、、、、、、、、、5。5M1M2。5M10．7900．6830．6510．4840．4410．4360．4260．3720．3340．3330．2750．238123456789101112M20．7990．6830．6670．5040．4700．4330．4310．3630．3580．3380．2640．2591234567891011125“”“”。。12。。、、。、、、、、。。。、。、。。、。。。。39716。①“”②“”③“”。1．M．1997．164-171．2．J．1995155547-550．3．TOPSISJ．2004342-47．4．J．20001944549-50．5．J．2011264546-550．6YuLJianzhongX．Ｒesearchonregionaltechnologicalinnovativecapacitybasedonthemethodoftimemulti-di-mensiondynamiccomprehensiveevaluationC//Artifi-cialIntelligenceManagementScienceandElectronicCommerceAIMSEC20112ndInternationalConfer-enceon．IEEE2011．3275-3279．7LiuWShiCZhaoS．Dynamiccomprehensiveevalua-tionmodelwiththefeatureofspeedJ．SystemsEngi-neering-Theory＆Practice201333705-710．8DinglinLiuXianglianZhao．MethodandapplicationfordynamiccomprehensiveevaluationwithsubjectiveandobjectiveinformationJ．PLOSOne201381283323．9HuXiangpeiXuZhichao．Amulti-agentsystemfordynamicandrealtimeopticalcontrolinlogisticsdistribu-tionA．InProceedingsof2001InternationalConfer-enceonManagementScience＆EngineeringC．HarbinChinaHITPress2001．724-729．10．J．20047269-79．11．J．2006232-37．12．、M．2007．13GuoYJ．Newtheoryandmethodofdynamiccompre-hensiveevaluationJ．JournalofManagementSciencesinChina20025250-54．14GuoYJTangHYQuDG．DynamiccomprehensiveevaluationmethodanditsapplicationbasedonminimalvariabilityJ．SystemsEngineeringandElectronics20103261226-1228．15．J．2009306889-892．16．J．20072710154-158．172006-2010M．．081201625