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:1003-207(2006)04-0121-07一种基于证据理论的动态综合效绩评价实用方法王雪荣(南京财经大学会计学院,南京210046):,,;;;:;;:;;;:C931:A:2004-11-24;:2006-04-10:(70302013):(1967-),(),,,,:.1(indegratedmanagmenetsystem,IMS),,,[1],:[2],,;[3],,;[4],,,[5];,ANN;,,[6];[7],[8],Pawlak[9],,(),(massDempstershafer),,:,[10],,,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,2,,,,,IMS,14420068ChineseJournalofManagementScienceVol.14,No.4Aug.,2006,[11],ISM,,(1)1C(1)i(tk)C(2)i1(tk)(xi1(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi2(tk)(;{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi3(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi4(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}C(2)i2(tk)(xi5(tk);{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi6(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi7(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi8(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi9(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}C(2)i3(tk)(xi10(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi11(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}(xi12(tk));{(p1,p2,!,Pn)}1,C(1)i(tk)∀∀∀,(i=1,2,!,n,n);C(2)i(tk),(C(2)i1(tk),(C(2)i2(tk))(C(2)i3(tk));(p1,p2,!,pn),,,3()IMS,:IMS;,;;,DEAAHP:(AHP);;;;,,,IMS,,:,;,;massDemposter-Shafer(,)();D-S,,mass,,;,::,:,:,3.1,,C(1)iq(tk)(i=1,2,!,n,n();tk=1,2,!,N);C(2)i(tk)(itk);q=1,2,!,s,s);xij(tk)(i;j=1,2,!,mj)l#122#2006({p1,p2,!,pt}),,n()S1,S2,!!,Sn,mxi1,xi2,!!,xim,N,t1,t2,!,tN{xij(tk)}[6]:yi(tk)=f(1(tk),2(tk),!m(tk);Xi1(tk),xi2(tk),!,xim(tk))k=1,2,!,Nyi(tk)Sitk,{xij(tk)},{xij(tk)}S1,S2,!!,Sntk3.2(AmathematicalTheoryofEvidence),G.Shafer1976[12],H,();H(),H,,H;H(),ShaferDempster,,H,,,E={}7,(2)={(1A1∃0.8)(0.8A2∃0.6)(0.6A3∃0.4)(0.4A4∃0.2)(0.2A5∃0)}5,,[13]2E(xij)qs123456710.75000000.2510.75000000.2510.75000000.510.5000000.7510.25000000.7510.25000000.7513Es(Ak)1234567(A1)(1A1∃0.8)10.7500000(A2)(0.8A1∃0.6)00.2510.5000(A3)(0.6A1∃0.4)000.2510.500(A4)(0.4A1∃0.2)0000.2510.50(A5)(0.2A1∃0)000000.751lxij(tk)(,xij(tk)xij){p1,p2,!,pl},:qxij:E(xij)q(Ak)=%7s=1(E(xij)qs&Es(Ak))%7s=1(E(xij)qs∋Es(Ak))(i=1,2,!,n;j=1,2,!,m;s=1,2,!,7;k=1,2,!,5;q=1,2,!,l)(1)&∀∀∀min;∋∀∀∀max;ij;s;k0(E(xij)q(Ak)(1(,%5k=1E(xij)q(Ak))1,∗),,,#123#4:xij,l((xij)1,(xij)2,!!(xij)l,%lq=1(xij)q=1)mn,mn,n,,,,((xij)1,(xij)2,!!(xij)l,%lq=1(xij)q=1),:!(xij)q=∀(xij)q#[1-((xij)max-(xij)q)](i=1,2,!,n;j=1,2,!,m;q=1,2,!,l)(2)(xij)max=max1q(l(xij)q;∀(xij)q∀∀∀,0.9(∀(xij)q(1;0(!(xij)q(1,xijq,:p*(xij)q=!(xij)q#p(xij)q(3)%5k=1!(xij)q#p(xij)q(Ak)(1,1-%5k=1!(xij)q#E(xij)q(Ak),p*(xij)qp(xij)qmass,,mass,qxijmassm(xij)q(A)=!(xij)q#E(xij)qs(Ak)A={A1,A2,!,A5)1-%5k=1!(xij)q#E(xij)qs(Ak)A=(4)m(xij)qxijAk,mass,DempsterShafer:m1,m2,!!,mnnmass,m(#)=0m(A)=m1(A)m2(A)!!mn(A)=1N%+,Bi=A1(i(nmi(Bi)(5)mass,N=%+,Bi)#1(i(nmi(Bi)(6)Nnxij,:xij=0.9m(xij)q(A1)+0.7m(xij)q(A2)+0.5m(xij)q(A3)+0.3m(xij)q(A4)+0.1m(xij)q(A5)(7)(,)3.3,tk(k=1,2,!!,N)():yi(tk)=%mj=1*jxij(tk),k=1,2,!,N;i=1,2,!,n(8),*j;xij(tk)(i=1,2,!,n;j=1,2,!,m;tk(k=1,2,!,N));yi(tk)itk*j(,,,,,,),:*j=vj+j(9),vj,j[13],G1G2,vj(vj∃0;%mj=1vj=1)j(j=1,2,!,m),S1,S2,!!,Sn{xij(tk)},∃2=%Nk=1%ni=1(yi(tk)-y)2,,y=0∃2=%Nk=1%ni=1(yi(tk)-y)2=%Nk=1%ni=1(yi(tk))2#124#2006=%Nk=1[TH]=T%Nk=1Hk=TH(10)=(1,2,!m)T,H=%Nk=1Hkm−m,Hk=ATk,Ak,(k=1,2,!,N),:A=x11(tk)x12(tk)!x1m(tk)x21(tk)x22(tk)!x2m(tk)%%%xn1(tk)xn1(tk)!xnm(tk),k=1,2,!,N(11)T=1,Hmax(H)(),∃2,max..=1=TH=max(H),,,jvj(9),*j,(8)c(2)ijyi(tk),c(1)iyiyi,,tk,4(A,B,C,D,E)2000~2004,14.1IMS,1(C(2)i2(tk))(C(2)i3(tk))8,,5,C(2)i2(tk)x15(tk)~x55(tk){;;;;;;;}44x15(tk)x25(tk)x35(tk)x45(tk)x55(tk)12345xij,(2)(3)l!=(0.90,0.95,0.80,0.87,0.92),(1)(4)5mass,,x15(tk)mass:m1=(0.83570.06430.00000.00000.00000.10)m2=(0.43250.43250.08500.00000.00000.05)m3=(0.36420.36420.07150.00000.00000.20)m4=(0.04500.55100.22900.04500.00000.13)(5)(6),x15(tk)massm(x15(tk))=(0.90090.90580.00210.00100.00000.0001)(7)x15(tk);x15(tk)=0.9009−0.9+0.0958−0.7+0.0021−0.5+0.001−0.3=0.8792,x25(tk)x35(tk)x45(tk)x55(tk),4.2vj,(10)(11)j(9)*j(),xij(tk)*j(j)(8),y*i(tk)(i=5,A,B,C,D,E),y*i(tk)(j0),yi,yi(tk),5:#125#4:52000Ci1(tk)yi1Ci2(tk)yi2Ci3(tk)yi3Ci(tk)yi2001Ci1(tk)yi1Ci2(tk)yi2Ci3(tk)yi3Ci(tk)yiA42.170341.924337.503340.942334.608444.031342.124238.8433B34.653438.028435.556435.723433.326536.912437.811335.3444C44.102242.853252.931145.997255.877145.448255.260153.1161D26.607527.118528.189527.130536.579326.009530.673532.4605E52.467148.885145.227249.762139.611247.601134.046440.21725(1)2002Ci1(tk)yi1Ci2(tk)yi2Ci3(tk)yi3Ci(tk)yi2003Ci1(tk)yi1Ci2(tk)yi2Ci3(tk)yi3Ci(tk)yiA47.049247.791248.259247.537246.363249.784249.445247.9892B34.436435.592440.652336.279337.420335.764342.734338.3353C54.732150.155153.05553.16954.974150.866151.148152.9911D27.565527.450528.535527.779527.228533.180428.027528.9165E34.586339.013329.499434.421434.013430.406530.109432.13545(2)2004Ci1(tk)yi1Ci2(tk)yi2Ci3(tk)yi3Ci(tk)yiA45.428249.976248.044246.7192B36.233339.477343.328338.8183C56.213150.519151.510153.6141D33.938434.239430.348433.1164E29.189526.583526.166527.78255.35,:A,2002,,,:A200020013,2002~20042;B,,,:B200020014,2002~20043,;C,,,,:C20002,2001~2004,;D,,:D45,;E,90,,,,,,,:E2000120045,49.76227.7826,,:2000Ci1(tk),,23,3,,,,;,,,,,,∀∀∀,:[1],,.#126#2006[J].,2004,7(2):72-82.[2]KittockJ.E..EmergentConventionsandtheStructureofMulti-agentSystem[A].In:TheEconomyasanEvolvingComplexSystem,NewMexicoAddisonWesleyPress,1993.371-383.[3]JiangL..EconomicEntropyanditsApplicationtotheStructureoftheTransportSystem-QualityandQuantity[J].InternationalJournalofMethodolog