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32720157StatisticalＲesearchVol．32No.7Jul．2015*。“”、、。C81A1002－4565201507－0100－07ADynamicGroupEvaluationMethodwithVariableSubjectsandItsApplicationSuWeihuaZhangChonghuiZengShouzhenAbstractConsideringtimechangingandsubjectsvaryingthispaperproposesadynamicgroupevaluationmethod．Firstlythispaperimprovesthereliabilityofresultsbymeasuringtheverticalandhorizontalconflictsofevaluationopinions．Secondlyforvariablesubjectsthispaperchoosestimeeffectbasedontheconsensuswithevaluationopinionsforfixedsubjectstorealizethecomparabilityofevaluationopinionsondifferenttimedimensions．Thirdlytheresultsareintegratedandcomparedbydecomposingtheopinionsintotimeeffectindividualeffectbasiceffectandconflicteffect．Finallyanapplicationexampleshowsfeasibilityoftheproposedmethod．KeywordsDynamicGroupevaluationSubjectsVaryingTimeEffectConflictEffect*“”13JJD910002、“”2012LZ48。、。1“”“”2。①。3AHPFDAHP。。4。。5。。②327·101·。6。。7。8、XuYager9、CampanellaＲibeiro10。。。。。。。、。“”。。、G=ei/i=12…nO=oj/j=12…m。TAt/t=12…T。At=atijnt×matijeiojt。tGtGt∈GG1∪G2∪…GT=G。t1t2Gt1≠Gt2。t。。tt。。t。、。“”“”“”。11“”。。。。T=3G1≠G2≠G341。1－1G1∩G2≠G2∩G3≠。·102·20157G1G2T=1T=2。G2G3T=2T=3。1－2G1∩G2≠G1∩G3≠。G1G2、G3T。1－3G1∩G2=G2∩G3。T。1－4G1∩G2≠G1∩G3≠G2∩G3≠G1∩G2≠G2∩G3≠G1∩G3。。G1G2、G2G3G1G3、G2G3。1T=3。。2。。。。。。。、。。2s=fs1s2。s1s2s1=gs11s12s2=hs21s22s=fgs11s12hs21s221ss1s11s12s2s21s22。1.。。。1teidti=1n|atij－珔atj|。珔atj=1n∑ni=1atij。dti＞ε*ei。2tekelatkjatlj。Suppjekel=|≥katkj∩≥latlj||≥katkj∪≥latlj|ekeloj。Suppekel=1m∑mj=1Suppjekel。Suppekel＜δekel。327·103·≥katkjekoj。ei。2.。eit+1t。TEt+1i=at+1ij－FEt+1ij－IEt+1ij－atij－FEtij－IEtij2TEt+1it+1。IEt+1ijFEt+1ijt+1。WuLi12。。FEtij=atij－IEtij－CEtij－TEtij3CEtijt。t=1TEtij=0。。。。1314。。、1。eitojatij。A=At=atij/i=12…nj=12…mt=12…T。2。ei12。Xu15atl+1ij=ηatlij+1－ηatlij。l。anewtijteiojAnew=Anewt=anewtij/i=12…nj=12…mt=12…T。3t。1teiTEtiTEt1=TEti/i=12…n1t。eketkmax=maxsuppekei/i=12…n1t。ekTEtk=TEtkmaxTEt2=TEtk/k=12…n2t。4t。IEti=anewtij－珔anewtijti。FEti=anewtij－IEti－TEtiFEt1。FEtk=anewtkj－IEtkFEt2。5。A't=At1At2=a'tij/t=12…Ti=12…nj=12…mt。At1=FEt1+TEt1+IEt1At2=FEt2+TEt2+IEt2。16hij=∫Tt0eλta'ijtdttoj。fhij=∑nTi=1hijwi。λnT=∑Tt=1ntwi。·104·201576fhij、。、、7。、、。。。1。ε*、δ10①。T1e3o1、e4o2o6、e5o3o5、e6o1、e9o3T2e4o2、e6o7、e11o3、e12o1e14o1o4。T3e1o5、e6o2、e9o1、e11o1、e15o3e16o4。1。T1～T2e1、e2、e3、e4、e6e9e11、e12、e13e14。T2～T3e15e16。。3。2TE。。e11e1～e4、e6e9。Te2。T1～T2e12、e13e14e6、e2e9T2～T3e15e16e14e2。λ=0.517T1e1e2e3e4e5e6e7e8e9e10o187858683.963708986.775828365o28082765456.5606970807763o3838378585557.77980726367.555o485777470607066806648o5757070708077.78085758052o68067788077.3787872708160o770666670757881657857T2e1e2e3e4e6e9e11e12e13e14o1909093708985848075.4888582.7o28580926060.7838070657866o38075877087776668.0677364o48582907583807065898880.3o575808180707082708570o681808680757576627775o7787580756870.36983627465T3e1e2e3e6e9e11e12e14e15e16o1938795739189.08885.882718980o28983936466.3858272688268o378738377817371666872.566o48784887885817869858582.7o57375.1757579786988688469o686838880747779647978o780808576726890657670e1～e16o1～o7。①。DesignofExperimentsforEngineeringandScientistsAntonyJ．2003。327·105·2。。wi=1/10。32。o1＞o4＞o6＞o2＞o5＞o7＞o3。2o1o2o3o4o5o6o7e190.385.180.185.875.182.776.4e287.381.876.681.375.077.374.3e391.187.682.784.476.284.477.8e469.162.969.274.776.679.273.9e583.376.975.876.975.575.572.4e685.877.576.077.472.676.771.3e781.972.274.273.486.777.486.6e876.371.468.871.871.465.964.8e990.182.574.483.786.382.279.2e1076.666.262.471.964.572.064.983.276.474.078.176.077.374.2、。。、、。1。2、、4“”。3。4“”。1YHLinetal．Dynamicmulti-attributedecisionmakingmodelwithgreynumberevaluationsJ．ExpertSystemswithApplications200841638－1644.2．J．200710154－158.3．J．2007214－18.4．J．20061278－80.5．J．20141182－189.6．J．2004869－72.7．J．2012274－77.8．ALWAJ．20135115－120.9ZSXuＲＲYager．Dynamicintuitionisticfuzzymulti-attributedecisionmakingJ．InternationalJournalofApproximateＲeasoning20089246－262.10CampanellaCＲibeiroＲA．Aframeworkfordynamicmultiple-criteriadecisionmakingJ．DecisionSupportSystem2011552－60.11．J．2014285－90.12JHWuGDLi．Moment-basedtestsforindividualandtimeeffectsinpaneldatamodelsJ．JournalofEconometrics20141569－581.13．J．20118104－109.14．—J．20015340－347.15ZSXu．AnautomaticapproachtoreachingconsensusinmultipleattributegroupdecisionmakingJ．Computers＆IndustrialEngineering200941369－1374.16．、M．2007.19632001、。。19882013。。19812013。。