综合评价方法分类及研究进展

陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟(,350002):将各学科领域的综合评价方法归纳分类,讨论了各类方法的基本原理优缺点及适用领域,并论述了综合评价方法研究的新进展.指出目前综合评价存在的突出问题:多方法评价结论的非一致性问题;方法针对性不强;理论研究与实际应用的脱节问题.针对三个问题,提出基于方法集的组合评价的新思路,以探索建立一个支持一致性的I3DSS.:综合评价;方法分类;研究趋势:O212.1!!!:A!!!:1007-9807(2004)02-0069-110!![1].:;.,(),.,.,,,.,,,,,,,.,,,,.,.,ManagementScience,DecisionSciences,EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,JournalofSstemsScienceandSstemEngineering,OperationsResearch.FuzzSetsandSstems,ArtificialIntelligence,InternationalJournalofProjectManagement.,∀#∀#∀#∀#.,.1!,9().1.7220044!!!!!!!!!!!!!!JOURNALOFMANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINA!!!!!!!!!!!!Vol.7No.2Apr.2004:2002-06-23;:2004-01-08.:(70171026).:(1979∃),,,.1!Table1!Comparisonandsummarizingtableofcommonlyusedcomprehensiveevaluationmethods!!!!1,Delphi,,,,,,2,NPVIRRT,,,3(MODM)(MODM)[2],,[3,4],4()(C2RC2GS2),,,,,,[5~7]5[8,9],,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,[10],(9)[11,12]7I:C%[0,1],()R=[Iij(xjh)]n&m,,Iij(xjh)UIij,,..,,,[13~16],∃70∃!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!200441!!!!8(STEM)(SEMOP)Geoffrion,,.;,[17],[18]9BP,BP,,,.,,,,[19,20]2!,,.,()(),;,..,,.2.1!,.,,.[21~24].GPSSSLAMMATLABSIMULINK.,[22].,,;..2.2!.Shannon,,.,:2.2.1!绝对信息熵方法H,qi,kik,qi0.H=-∋nk=1[(qi,k/qi0)&ln(qi,k/qi0)]i=1,2,(,m;k=1,2,(,n(1),,.2.2.2!相对信息熵方法,!H(i)=-{∋nk=1(qi,k/qi0)&ln(qi,k/qi0)}/lnm!!!i=1,2,(,m;k=1,2,(,n(2)(2),,(i),,.,.[25,26].,.2.3!,∃71∃2!!!!!!!!!!!!!:[27]..,0={0(k);k=1,2,(,n}i={i(k);i=1,2,(,m;k=1,2,(,n},X0={x0(k);k=1,2,(,n},xi={xi(k);i=1,2,(,m;k=1,2,(,n},!i=!minmin|x0(k)-xi(k)|+∀&mxmx|x0(k)-xi(k)||x0(k)-xi(k)|+∀&mxmx|x0(k)-xi(k)|(3):∀)(0,+∗),∀.a(k),ri=(∋nk=1!i(k)&a(k))/n,.[28,29].,,;,[30].2.4!().:2.4.1!模拟人脑工作的人工神经网络技术ANN,BP,,(radialbasisfunction).2.4.2!模拟生物进化的遗传算法.,,,,(reproduction)(cross_over)(mutation).,,NP(t),(fitness)f,.,,[31,32].2.5!,.,,,,.,,,[33].,,,,.,[34,35].2.6!,,,,.,,[36]..,[37,38].2.7!-,,,[1].:2.7.1!基于目标满意度的交互式评价方法,.[39],,;.2.7.2!基于目标实际达成度和目标满意度综合的交互式评价方法,∃72∃!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!20044,.,(0),W(w1,w2,(,wi),U(0)X(0);,(k),U(k)X(k),[40].,,,.2.8!(conjointanalysis,CA),.CA:(trade_off);(fullprofile).[41].2.9!Pawlak1982.,,,,.,,,,.,[42,43].3!∃∃∃,(),.,.,.,,,[44,45].,.:3.1!()[46]..,,..,:3.1.1!ODM与FCE结合(SWT)[47],MaedaH[48].3.1.2!非线性规划方法和模糊综合评价法结合,.3.1.3!AHP方法和FCE方法结合WangM.J.J,.3.1.4!模糊聚类方法,.,[8].3.1.5!灰色层次决策方法,,,[35].,.∃73∃2!!!!!!!!!!!!!:,.3.2!(),.:3.2.1!模糊人工神经网络评价方法BPANN,agentSwarmPetri[49~51],,.[52,53].,.3.2.2!群决策支持系统的应用GDSS,.,,AI()[54~58].GDSS,[55~57],.3.3!():,[59,60];,,,[61].3.4!().,[62].,,.,.,[63~65]..3.5!()+∀#,[66].,(integratedvaluechain,IVC):;,[67,68].21,,..4!,[1].,:.,,,,,.([69]),.,.,..,....∃74∃!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!20044.,,,,..,,,,,,,.,..,.,:..,,,,.,,.,.∃∃∃(meta_synthesis)[70~72],,,(),--,IDSSI3DSS[73],.I3DSS,[74,75].5!.,,.,,,.:[1].[J].,1998,1(1):75∃79.WANGZongjun.Onthemethods,problemsandresearchtrendsofcomprehensiveevaluation[J].JournalofManagementSciencesinChina,1998,1(1):75∃79.(inChinese)[2].[M].:,1990.22∃26.GUJifa.MethodsofComprehensiveEvaluation[M].Beijing:ScienceTechnologyPressofChina,1990.22∃26.(inChinese)[3]HwangCL,MdAasudAS.MultipleObjectiveDecisionMakingMethodsandApplications[M].Berlin:Spring_VerlagPress,1979.2∃325.[4]LichtenbergFankR.IssuesinmeasuringindustrialR&D[J].ResearchPolicy,1990,19(1):157∃163.[5]CharnesA,CooperWW,RhodesE.Measuringtheefficiencyofdecisionmakingunits[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,1978,(2):429∃444.[6]CooperWW,ToneK.Measuresofinefficiencyindataenvelopmentanalysisandstochasticfrontierestimation[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,1997,(2):72∃78.[7],.DEA[J].,2002,(1):84∃88.∃75∃2!!!!!!!!!!!!!:WANGJunxia,GUANJiancheng.TheapplicationofcompositionDEAmethodinmeasuringtheperformanceofknowledgemanagementofenterprise[J].StudiesinScienceofScience.2002,(1):84∃88.(inChinese)[8].[M].:,1998.215∃344.HEXiaoqun.TheMethodsofModernStatisticsAnalysis[M].Beijing:PressofRenmingUniversityofChina,1998.(inChinese)[9]JacquesSavoy.Statisticalinferenceinretrievaleffectivenessevaluation[J].InformationProcessingandManagement,1997,33(4):495∃512.[10]WallmarkJTorkel.Qualityofresearchmeasuredbycitationmethodandbypeerreview∃acomparison[J].IEEETransonEngineeringManagement,1986,19(4):218∃222.[11]SaatyTL.FundamentalsofDecisionMakingandPriorityTheorywiththeAnalyticHierarchyProcess[M].Princeton:RWSPublications,1994.35∃127.[12]SchenKS.AvoidingrankreversalinAHPdecision_supportmodels[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,1994,74:4607∃4619.[13]CarrettoniF,CastanoS,etal.RETISS:Arealtimesecuritysystemforthreatdetectionusingfuzzylogic[A].In:Proceedingsof25thIEEEInternationalCarnahanConferenceonSecurityTechnology[C].Taipei:1991.247∃269.[14]ChenSJ,HwangCL.FuzzyMultipleAttributeDecisionMaking[M].Berlin:SpringerPress,1992.163∃287.[15].R&DFuzzy[J].,1998,16(1):68∃74.ChenGuohong.FuzzymodeidentificationinR&Dprojecttermination[J].StudiesinScienceofScience,1998,16(1):68∃74.(inChinese)[16]DimitrasAI,SlowinskiR,SusmagaR,etal.Businessfailurepredictionusingroughsets[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,1999,95:24∃37.[17]LevineP,PomerolJC.PRIAM,aninteractiveprogramforchoosingamongmultipleattributealternatives[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationsResearch,1986,25(2):272∃280.[18]GrabowskiMR,WallaceWA.Anexperts