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A(64=24)1.ABC()()()0.25PAPBPC,()()0PABPBC()0.125PACABC______25244___________.32(0,)XN:,1215(,,)XXXLX2251221562()XXYXXLL________4X(1)(2)1EXX=5XY2536,0.4,()DXY__________,()DXY________6.___________________________41(12)0.030.0212(12)10021.6910018020042(16)X1,01(;)0,xxfx01(,,)nXXLX12(10)???43(12)(,)3,01,0(,)0,xxyxfxy.(14)25136.65xkg12.32Skg20237.35xkg21.89Skg?0.05(1.8)0.9641(2.0)0.9772(1.54)0.9394F0.025(2419)=2.45F0.025(1924)=2.331F0.975(2419)=0.429F0.05(2419)=2.11F0.05(2025)=2.01F0025(2025)=2.30.05(25)1.7081t0.05(20)1.7247t0.05(43)1.681t44A48200779(24)58;445213C0.1055;F(510);1;8537;.Ai={I}i=12B={}(1)2121()()(|)(10.03)(10.02)0.97333iiiPBPAPBA(6)(2)2222110.02()(|)3(|)0.25210.030.02()(|)33iiiPAPBAPABPAPBA(6)iix1001001iiXxX2(,)Nnn(5)(200,169)XN:180200200220200180200169169169XPXP2020020131313XP(1.54)(1.54)0.939410.93940.8764(7)(1)11100()1EXxfxdxxdxxdxEXX1X1XX$21XX(6)21()(;)nkkLfx11,01(1,,),0,nkkkxxknL121,01(1,,),0,nnkkkxxknL01(1,,)kxknL1ln()ln(1)ln2nkknLx1ln()1ln022nkkdLnxd221(ln)nkknx(7)1$221(ln)nkknx(10)?()E2?L22????()(())()0PDEeE(5)2?()??()0PDPE(5)()()(,)xyzFzPzfxydxdyZ0()0Fz01z333()322DFzxdxdyzz1z112000()331xFzxdxdyxdx(8)2'3(1),01()()20,zzfzFz(4)22012:H22112:H2122SFSH012(1,1)FFnn:n1=25n2=20F0.025(2419)=2.45F0.975(2419)=0.429F222.321.507(0.429,2.45)1.89fH02212.(7)(1)2212012:H112:H122211221212(1)(1)111XXTnSnSnnnnH012(2)Ttnn:120.05(2)(43)1.681tnntT35.6537.352.6471.681112.1412520tH02A4*8=3213.0AP4.0BP5.0BAPPBABU2XpB,2YpB,3951XP1PY310104X221XYe5(,)XY4,01,01(,)0,xyxyfxy()PXY6..,,rvXYZ()()1EXEY()1EZ222()()()2EXEYEZ,,,110;;22XYXZYZ(2,3)CovXYZX71X2XnXX2,0N2121niiXn812,11215%20%30%35%05.004.003.002.010X510()50xXexfx105YY1YP10nnX8,125,,,,XXXL8236570010X010;1xxxf(1X2XnX)X10200520081005.630.67211(,)N222(,)N1.212.2205.0(1.11)0.8665(1.64)0.95A48200879411421927310101717P4(0,1)U5126727128)1,1(1,)1,1(1212/12221212/2221nnFSSnnFSSiAi1,2,3,4iB1234()0.15;()0.20;()0.30;()0.35pApApApA1234()0.05;()0.04;()0.03;()0.02pBApBApBApBA(4)141()()()0.0315iiipBpApBA(8)244441()()()0.2222()()iiipApBApABpApBA(12)25101011exp(),(10)()55xXPXfxdxedxeQ:(52(5,)YBe:25(1)1(0)1(1)0.5167PYPYe(10)10iiXi12...in,X101/n11/n(3)1()EXn11()()1niiEXEXnn(6)21()iEXn1();,1,2,,(1)ijEXXijnnnLijXX10P1(1)nn11(1)nn222111221111()21111()2()222(1)(1)nnniiijiiijnnnnniijniijniijnEXEXEXXXEXEXXnCnnnnnn122()()()1DXEXEX(10)N1,2,,5min{}kkNXL(3)5511,0,()1(1())0,xNkkexFxFx(6)55,0,()0,xNexfxexp(5)N:(8)iXi1,,365,iL3651iiXX2)1()2;()2;(3652,3652)niiiiEXDXXXN:&(4)7003652(700)1(700)1()1(1.11)0.86653652PXF(8)10()()1EXxfxdxxdxQ(2)1X21?XX(4)11211()()()nnniiiiLxx(6)1ln()ln(1)ln2niinLx1ln()11ln022niidLnxd(8)221?lnniinx(10)012112:0,:0HH(2)221212~(0,1)XYUNnn(4)0.951.64Uuu.(6)2263.567.011.511.642.12.2100100U(8)0H(10)2A200917(324)1AB3.0)(AP6.0)(BP)(ABP201123.X22(24)0.3PX(0)PX4.,XY3/)1()()(kkYPkXP1,0k()PXY5X(),XfxY=Xe6,XY0.5,XY()()0EXEY22()()2EXEY2[()]EXY7.1234(,,,)XXXX(0,1)XN:342212~XXXX8129(,,)XXXLL2(,0.9)N,5x0.951010523..9.12ni(01)iipp1,2,,inL.X()EX()DX.12(,)XY,01(,)0,cxxyfxy1c;(2),XY3(1)PXY.10.10[012]99%((2.33)0.99.)12X()1()()0xexFxRx.12(,,)nXXXLL.1?2*1050010.922499,16.03xs..0.050.05(8)1.8595,t0.025(8)2.306t20.05(8)15.507,20.025(8)17.535(A)482009171.472.183.0.24.595.1(ln),0fyyy6.67.(2)t8.0.0250.025(50.3,50.3)uu(4.815,5.585)AkBk3,2,1k.3685110321)()()(29252925292431CCCCCCBAPBPAPkkk5.83368363)(/21)(/)()()(2924111APCCAPBAPBPABP510iiXi1,2,inL1niiXX12,,,nXXXL(),()(1)iiiiiEXpDXpp1,2,inL6111()()()nnniiiiiiEXEXEXp111()()()(1)nnniiiiiiiDXDXDXpp6:(1)11001(,)1xxyfxydxdycxdxdyc=63(2)01x1()66(1)Xxfxxdyxx6(1)01()0Xxxxfx301y20()63yYfyxdxy2301()0Yyyfy3(3)1/211/2001(1)66(12)4xxPXYxdxdyxxdx3,XY(,)XY()0,0(,)0xyexyfxy0z0)(zFZ0z()00()()zzxxyZFzPXYzedxedy1zzee7(),0()()0,0zzZZeezfzFzz3iXi1210000,,,XXXLiX~(0,12)U()6iEX()12iDX1,2,,10000iL.N100001iiYX()0.99PYN5100006100006100006()100121001210012YNNPYNP1000060.9910012N1000062.3310012N.N=60403.65X()()()0xexfxRx1()1xEXxedx?1X?()(1)EEX?.421()()11()(;)niiinnxxiiiiLfxeex1,2,inL()0dLd()Lix1,2,inL12(,,)nxxxLL()L*12min{,,}nXXXLL412min{,,}nZXXXLL()1(1())nXFzFz()()()0nxZnexfzRx()1nxEZnxedxn*12min{,,}nXXXLL4:(1)01:500:500HH.0H500~(8)/3XTtS.2500{||(8)}/3XtS0.025(8)2.306t.T030.18716.03T0H.522201:100,:100HH.1H228{}100S.22228~(8)S20.05(8)15.5072816.0320.561000H521(A)20097174*8=3211()5PA1()4PBA1()3PAB()PAB2XiciXP323,2,1ic3X()Xfx2XY()Yfx4(,)XY201,02(,)30xyxxyfxy(1)PXY5()XP:(2)(3)2EXX6(,)XY(,)02,01GxyxyXY()Xfx()Yfx71X2XnXX8X(0)1X2XnX21107151411210XY(0,1)(1,0)(1,1)YXU10X1()2xfxex1(,)CovXX,XX2,XX10125,,,XXXL201()0xxfx125max(,,,)YXXXL105001000114.0%9.99(3.01)0.9991012(,,,)nXXXLXX10(;)00xexfxx01Xn22(2)n2a189254.5,11.13XS2.5105.00.050.025(8)1.8595,(8)2.3060tt22(A)482009717411072382731()()02()00XXYfyfyyyfyy47265526102()20Xxfx101()0Yyfy71()EX21()DXn812()120,1,2,,(,,)0nxxxninexinfxxxLLLiAi1,2,3iB123111();();()333pApApA123111();();()754pBApBApBA(4)13183()()()0.198420iiipBpApBA(8)222231()()28()0.33783()()iiipApBApABpApBA(10)2(,)1,(,)02xysfxy()()UFuPXYu(5)1()0()0UUuFufu-111201-1112()2[+]=43uuxUxuxuFudxdydxdyuu()42Ufuu(7)2()1()0UUuFufu4212()0Uuufu(10)10||220111(||)||0222xxxEXXxxedxxedxxedx0||0111()0222xxx