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大沽河流域水资源可持续管理技术研究•青岛•中国海洋大学出版社出版发行中国海洋大学出版社社址青岛市香港东路23号邮政编码266071出版人杨立敏网址http：//@hotmail.com订购电话0532-82032573（传真）责任编辑矫恒鹏电话0532-85902349印制日照日报印务中心版次2014年6月第1版印次2014年6月第1次印刷成品尺寸185mm3260mm印张19.625字数454千定价49.00元图书在版编目（CIP）数据大沽河流域水资源可持续管理技术研究/于万春等著.—青岛：中国海洋大学出版社，2014.5ISBN978-7-5670-0565-5Ⅰ.①大…Ⅱ.①于…Ⅲ.①河流－水资源管理－研究－青岛市Ⅳ.①TV213.4中国版本图书馆CIP数据核字（2014）第051447号1208039～1208259368109～378129500m1799km61313km2478101km28127345689前言PREFACE22011010582010···············································································1第一节研究背景···································································································1第二节国内外研究进展·······················································································2第三节主要研究内容·························································································10·····························································································13第一节自然地理·································································································13第二节河流水系·································································································14第三节区域地质及水文地质条件·····································································16第四节社会经济概况·························································································22·····················································23第一节流域水文要素时空分布·········································································23第二节水资源数量评价·····················································································30第三节水资源质量评价·····················································································49第四节水资源开发利用情况调查评价·····························································57·························································71第一节地表水资源监测方案优化·····································································72第二节地下水资源监测站网布设及优化·························································91···············113第一节大沽河水源地地下水流数值模型·······················································113第二节地下水资源量评价···············································································135第三节大沽河平原区地下水源地硝酸盐数值预报模型································151目录CONTENTS2··········································168第一节水资源供需平衡分析···········································································168第二节水资源承载力评价与分析···································································186第三节流域地表水—地下水水量联合调度模拟···········································192第四节模拟结果分析·······················································································200···························205第一节大沽河流域节水和非常规水利用概况···············································205第二节大沽河梯级拦河坝雨洪水利用模式···················································207第三节胶州市万亩节水灌溉示范区技术和管理模式····································221第四节大沽河流域污水回用示范···································································237···································246第一节水管理概述···························································································246第二节水管理措施对社会经济影响的评价指标体系····································250第三节水管理措施对社会经济影响的评价模型···········································265第四节灰色系统预测模型···············································································282第五节大沽河流域水资源可持续利用管理方案···········································286第六节大沽河流域水资源可持续利用管理技术体系····································291···························································································295第一节结论·······································································································295第二节建议·······································································································300···············································································································302研究背景与研究内容1水是生命之源、生产之要、生态之基，既不可或缺，又无以替代，是经济社会和人类发展所必须的资源要素。水资源危机的出现和加剧与人类在经济活动中缺乏对水资源的有效保护和管理有着重要的关系。水资源是社会经济发展的重要自然资源，人类的绝大多数经济活动都要涉及水资源。可持续发展是当前和未来人类社会与经济发展的基本战略目标。关于可持续发展的定义和解释多种多样，但都基本围绕着“满足目前需要但不破坏未来发展需求的能力”这一核心思想。实现社会的可持续发展的一个重要内容就是实现水资源等自然资源的可持续利用。在人类追求可持续发展目标的前提下，实现水资源的可持续利用要求人类必须正视干旱洪涝灾害、水资源短缺、水环境污染等水资源危机，这也给水资源管理活动提出了新的要求和挑战。实现可持续的水资源利用目标必须改变传统的水资源管理活动，以可持续发展的观点、系统的观点和综合的观点构建全新的现代水资源管理技术体系。中国是个缺水大国，水资源并不丰富，但用水浪费惊人，供求问题十分突出。这个结论，并非危言耸听。我国人均水资源占有量大大低于世界平均水平，仅列世界第88位。而且随着人口的迅速增长，人均水资源每年在递减。从淡水资源看，世界人均占有量为12900m3，我国仅2695m3，还不到世界人均占有量的1/4。联合国环境规划署预测，水的问题将会同20世纪70年代的能源一样，成为21世纪初世界大部分地区面临的昀严峻的自然资源问题。联合国的分析资料指出：地球的淡水比例仅占2.8％左右，其中99％以上蕴藏在南北两极的冰雪中或在地下水，其余不到1％的淡水又有将近一半被土壤和空气吸收，余下的部分蕴藏在地球表面分布极不均等的江河湖泊之中。据统计，过去的50多年，全世界淡水使用量增加了将近4倍，每年高达4130km3，农业用水占全部用水的60％，因为过去的20余年中，灌溉面积增加了1/3以上。亚洲国家的用水量增长昀快。据预测，亚洲的用水量将从目前占世界用水量的一半上升研究背景与研究内容2到近2/3。可持续水资源管理强调未来变化、社会福利、水文循环、生态系统保护等完整的水资源管理，可持续水资源管理已被许多发达国家接受，这方面的研究在我国尚处于起步阶段。大沽河流域位于胶东半岛西部，东经1208039～1208259，北纬368109～378129之间。干流全长179.9km，流域总面积6131.3km2（含南胶莱河1500km2），流域内包含产芝水库、尹府水库、高格庄水库等大中型水库8座，其中青岛市境内面积4781.01km2，是胶东半岛的昀大河流。流域内包含产芝水库、尹府水库等大中型水库8座，是青岛市昀大、昀稳定的本土水源。大沽河流域是青岛市经济发展的重心，但是随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，水资