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存档编号xx师范大学学士学位论文赣江流域未来30年洪水及其分布研究教学学院地理与规划学院届别20xx届专业地理科学学号xx姓名xx指导教师xx完成日期20xx.5.20xx师范大学本科毕业论文（设计）第2页共24页摘要近年来，洪涝、干旱等极端事件在全球各地发生的频率越来越高，降水强度的变化对气候变化的影响越来越敏感。尤其是在未来时段，城市化水平越来越高，未来降水变异性的增加可能将会使洪水风险性加大。赣江是江西省内的第一大河流，赣江径流是鄱阳湖进入长江的主要径流之一。研究赣江流域未来30年洪水对气候变化的响应，对研究未来气候变化下赣江流域洪水风险率的变化具有十分重要的现实意义。本文结合赣江流域地形地貌及过去30年的降水情况进行分析，用赣江流域7个水文代表站洪峰水位来评估未来30年洪水及其分布，采用趋势拟合方法，并用软件制作出代表站未来30年的洪峰水位。结果表明赣江流域未来30洪水主要趋势是流域南部较北部发生次数多，并越往北，洪水发生次数越少，特别是在东南部发生洪水的年份次数最多。研究和预测赣江流域未来30年洪水的变化趋势及分布研究，有利于就赣江流域的特征针对性地提出一系列可持续的生态减灾工程体系的建设思路，也有利于对赣江流域的防洪治理和抢险救灾提出相关合理建议，从而达到对赣江流域综合治理水利，实现赣江流域的可持续发展。关键词：赣江流域；洪水；气候变化；洪峰水位；趋势xx师范大学本科毕业论文（设计）第3页共24页AbstractInrecentyears,frequencyofoccurrenceofextremeeventssuchasfloodanddroughthasbeenhigherandhigher.Thechangeofrainintensityismoreandmoresensitivetoclimatechange.Especiallyinperiodoffuture,whentheurbanizationlevelishigher,increaseofvariationwhichisinrainfallinthefuturemaywidenfloodrisk.GanjiangRiveristhebiggestriverinJiangxiProvince.StreamofGanjiangRiveristhemainstreamtopermitlakewatertoflourintoYangtzeRiver.ResearchingtheinfluenceonclimatechangefromGanjiangRiver'sbasininnext30yearshasessentialrealisticmeaningtoGanjiangRiver'sfloodriskrateinthefuture'sclimatechange.ThispassageanalyzesthatsituationcombininglandformandphysiognomyinGanjiangRiver'sbasinandrainfallegimes.ItusessevenhydrograpyrepresentativestationstoevaluateinfluenceofGanjiangRiverbasin'sfloodonfutureclimate.Itusesmethodoftrendfittingandmakesfloodpeakstageofrepresentativestationsinnext30yearsthroughsoftware.TheresultimplicatesthatthemaintrendofGanjiangRiver'sfloodinthenext30yearisthatoccurrenceinsouthernbasinismorethanthatinthenorthernpart.Farthernorth,Occurringislessandless.Especiallyinsoutheasternpart,timesoffloodinoneyearisthemost.ResearchingandfarecastingvariationtrendoffloodofGanjiangRiver'sbasininnext30yearsandinfluenceofclimatechangeisbenefitforprovidingconstructionideaswhichissustainableEcologicaldisasterreduction.ItaimsatfeatureofGanjiangRiver'sbasin.ItisalsobenefitforprovidingresonableadviceonFloodcontrolandgovernanceandrescueandreliefworkforGanjiangRiver'sbasin.ThedestinationistogetcomprehensivecontrolofwaterconservancyinGanjiangRiver'sbasinandachievesustainabledevelopment.Keywords:GanjiangRiver'sBasin;Flood;ClimateChange;Flood-peakstage;Trendxx师范大学本科毕业论文（设计）第4页共24页目录摘要..............................................................3关键词.............................................................................................................................................2Abstract........................................................................................................................................3Keywords........................................................................................................................................3第一章绪论.............................................................................................................................51.1理论意义和现实意义................................................................................................51.2有关洪水的国内外研究概况和进展.....................................................................61.3研究内容与章节安排................................................................................................71.4工作流程及技术路线................................................................................................7第二章研究区概况....................................................................................................................92.1地形地貌特征..............................................................................................................92.2气候特征.....................................................................................................................102.3植被特征.....................................................................................................................11第三章赣江流域未来30年洪水及分布研究..................................................................123.1资料与方法.................................................................................................................123.1.1资料..................................................................................................................123.1.2方法..................................................................................................................123.2洪水现状分析............................................................................................................123.3洪水分布预测............................................................................................................14第四章结论...............................................................................................................................18致谢...............................................................................................................................................19参考文献......................................................................................................................................20附录1赣江流域代表站2002年-2011年洪峰水位统计表...............................