办公室&住宅市场概要(PDF16)英文(1)

KNOWLEDGEGREATERCHINACOLLIERSINTERNATIONALQUARTERLYRESEARCHREPORTTHESHENZHEN深圳GUANGZHOU廣州TAIPEI台北BEIJING北京SHANGHAI上海MARKETTRENDS市場走勢OFFICE&RESIDENTIALMARKETOVERVIEWHONGKONG香港Underthescenarioofcontinuedsupplysqueeze,officerentalsarepredictedtogrowbyanother30%overthenext12months.Inanticipationofinterestratespeakingin1Q2006andfurtherrentalgrowthintheorderof15%YoY,propertypricesareforecasttogrow5%inthenext12months.在供應量持續減少的形勢下，預料租金在未來十二個月再升30%。預測利率會於2006年首季見頂，豪宅租金按年升幅約15%，售價在未來十二個月可望再上調5%。JANUARY2006AverageGradeArentalsinQ42005increasedby6%comparedtothepreviousquarter.Inthewholeof2005,netabsorptionofluxuryresidentialunitsamountedto3,500,asignificant25%morethanthepreviousyear.2005年第四季度，北京甲級辦公樓平均租金比去年同期提升6%。2005年全年北京豪宅市場新增需求3500套，比去年的吸納量高出25％。InQ4,ShanghaiGradeAofficevacancydroppedslightlywithrentalsgrowingmoderately.Luxuryresidentialvacancyrosewithrentalsdroppingslightly.第四季度上海甲級辦公樓市場空置率略有下降，租金漲幅趨緩。上海豪宅租賃市場隨著市場淡季的到來，空置率有所上升，租金略有下調。AveragerentalsforGradeAofficespaceremainedsteadyinQ42005,similartothepreviousquarter.Itisanticipatedthataverageluxuryresidentialrentalswillincreaseby3-5%overthenext12months.甲級辦公樓市場平穩，平均租金與上季度持平。未來12個月廣州市豪宅租金有望上漲3%-5%。ThestrongdemandforGradeAofficespaceinFutiancontinuedresultinginaveragerentalsincreasing.Foreigninvestmentgroupshavefocusedtheirattentionontheluxuryresidentialsector.福田區甲級辦公樓需求旺盛，租金繼續上升。海外投資機構積極關注深圳高檔住宅市場，並且對高檔住宅租賃市場前景表示樂觀。VacancyrateofPremiumGradeofficesrecordedthelargestfallof10%QoQoverthepastnineyears.CurrentlytherearethreelistedREITswithamarketcapofNT$31.1bn.Theestimatedyieldsareintherangeof3.8%–4.2%.本季頂級辦公大樓空置率顯著下降約10%，為過去九年之最。目前國內已有三檔掛牌REITs，總投資規模約為311億元，預估未來收益率在3.8%-4.2%。Shanghai上海Guangzhou廣州Shenzhen深圳Taipei台北Beijing北京HongKong香港Office辦公樓Residential住宅Office辦公樓Residential住宅Office辦公樓Residential住宅Office辦公樓Residential住宅Office辦公樓Residential住宅Office辦公樓GREATERCHINACOLLIERSINTERNATIONALQUARTERLYRESEARCHREPORTGREATERCHINAOFFICE&RESIDENTIALMARKETOVERVIEW2HONGKONG香港JANUARY2006Despitethethreatofsuccessiveratehikes,theoccupationaldemandforqualityGradeAofficesremainedbuoyantduring4Q2005.Brand-newdevelopmentsincoreCentralsuchasAIGTowerandTwoInternationalFinanceCenterremainedpopularamongstthetenantsengagedinthefinanceindustries,andtheiraveragerentalrateshaveedgedneartotheHK$100persqftlevel.However,duetothesupplyconstraintinCentral,thetypeofnewlettingswasprimarilylimitedtosmall-to-mediumsizedtenantswithfloorarearequirementsfallingintherangeof3,000to4,000sqft.AsmostdevelopmentsinCentralhaveachievedover95%occupancyandtherehasbeensustainedtakeupindecentralizedareas,theaverageofficerentinthewholemarketgrewfurtherby12%QoQtoUS$55.31persqmpermonth(HK$40.08persqftpermonth)asattheendNovember2005.Oneofthesalientfeaturesin4Q2005wasthesignificantrentalcatchupinIslandEastwheretheaveragerentalsawadramaticgrowthof29.0%QoQduetothesustainedabsorptionattributedtorelocationsandpositivespilloverfromthecoreareas.Forexample,WachoviaexpandeditsoperationsbykeepingitstradingdivisionincoreCentralandrelocatingitsbackofficetoTaikooShing.Overall,theaveragevacancyrateinIslandEastedgedfurtherdowntolessthan4%asattheendofNovember2005.InCentral,theaveragevacancyrateremainedvirtuallyunchangedataround4-5%during4Q2005despitethemildcontributionsfromafewnewlettings.Aftertheconclusionofanumberofdealsindecentralizedareas,theoverallmarketactivitiesturnedquietin4Q2005.Thelackofsupplywasobviouslyoneofthekeyreasons.Inaddition,thetrendofdecentralizationsloweddown.Therentaldifferencebetweenthecoreanddecentralizedareasbecamenarrowerin4Q2005aftertherecentrentalcatchup,andsotheoptionofdecentralizationbecamelessappealinginfinancialterms.Subsequenttothedramaticrentalgrowthduring2005,marketplayersincludinglandlordsandtenantshavebeenmoreprudentinpreparingforavolatileleasingmarketoverthecomingyear.Firstly,morevendorshavestartedtofocusonthebackgroundandqualityoftheirtenantsratherthecurrentrentalratesinanattempttoachieveasteadyincomeflowoverthemediumterm.Thisisbeingdonebyofferingtheoptionofrenewalsonlyonanindividualbasis.Secondly,moretenantshavebecomemoreproactivetolookforpotentialspaceincludingalternativesinfringeareasatleast12monthsbeforetheexpiryoftheircurrentleases.Theabovestrategiesadoptedbylandlordsandtenantsshowthattheofficemarketisgoingtogrowfurtherin2006.Underthescenarioofcontinuedsupplysqueeze,officerentalsarepredictedtogrow30%overthenext12monthsandindividualtenantsmighthavetopaysignificantrentalpremiuminordertosecuretheirfuturespace.OFFICE辦公樓
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 F FG/H!!#$$?%&''(''''&''(''')''('''*''('''+''(''',''('''%,-'-,-&'-&,-)'-),-.G/#$0/#$01!I0--#H2$?345!%0-2$?3/H!!)''))''*)''+)'',6)''76雖然利率多次調升，用家對優質甲級辦公樓的需求在2005年第四季度依然活躍，中環區兩幢全新辦公樓AIGTower及國際金融中心二期繼續受到金融機構租戶追捧，平均呎租逐漸升至接近100港元的水平。不過，由於中區可供出租的樓面有限，新造承租個案主要來自中小型公司，單位面積介乎3,000至4,000平方呎。目前中環區大部份辦公樓的佔用率超過95%，令非核心區辦公樓的吸納情況持續。截至2005年11月底，整體甲級辦