国泰君安(香港)华润创业收购PacificCoffee连锁

FlashNoteChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK)GuotaiJunan(HongKong)SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2FlashNote:ChinaResourcesEnterprise(00291HK)JulieKe柯烨乐+85225097768快讯：华润创业(00291HK)[e-mail]29June2010AcquiredPacificCoffee80%.Addedtoretailingstrength.收购PacificCoffee连锁店80%股权。可助力零售业务。zCREannouncedthismorningthatithasacquiredan80%interestinPacificCoffeefromChevalierPacific(00508HK)withacashconsiderationofHK$326.6million.ChevalierPacificwillretaintheremaining20%stakeinPacificCoffee.PacificCoffeecurrentlyoperates90self-ownedand5franchisedcoffeehouses(83locatedinHongKong,5inmainlandChinaandtherestinSingapore,MalaysiaandMacau).AccordingtoChevalierPacific‘sannualresultsendedMar.31,2010,wecalculatedthatthedealwaspricedataround1.13xP/Band0.76xP/S.Butthechainwasstillinalossmakingpositioninthelastfiscalyear.zWethinkthevaluationoftheacquisitionisreasonable.WeexpectaccessiblesynergyindevelopmentofCRE‘sexistingretailnetworkandPacificCoffee.CREwillbeabletoleverageits~2900retailstoresinChinatoboostexpansionofthecoffeehousechain.Meanwhile,thecoffeehousesshalladdtotheattractivenessofcertainhypermarketsandhigh-endsupermarketsofCRE.However,weseelimitedimmediateimpactonthebottomlineofCRE,givenitsHK$2billionplusestimatednetprofitscaleforthisyear.zAtpresent,wemaintainearningsestimatesforFY10toFY12withunderlyingEPSatHK$0.957(9%abovemktavg),HK$1.171(5%abovemktavg)andHK$1.406,respectively.3yrCAGRat24.7%.WebelieveinthecontinuousexpansionandprofitabilityimprovementofCREinthenextcoupleofyears,especiallyinitsmainlandsupermarketchainsandfoodrelatedbusinesses.MaintainPTatHK$30.60(10%upsidefromyesterdaycloseatHK$28.75),representing32.0xFY10P/Eand26.1xFY11P/EonourunderlyingEPSestimates,a2.0%premiumon2010NAVcalculation.ReiterateAccumulate.z公司宣布以现金3.266亿港币从其士泛亚(00508HK)手中收购PacificCoffee咖啡连锁店80%股权。其士泛亚将保留20%股权。PacificCoffee目前运营着90家直营店和5家加盟店(83家在香港，5家在中国大陆，其余分布于新加坡、马来西亚及澳门)。根据其士泛亚截至2010年3月31日的年报，我们计算此次收购代价对应约1.13倍市净率、0.76倍市销率。但PacificCoffee在上年度仍为亏损状态。z我们认为此次收购作价合理。而且公司旗下已有零售网点能与PacificCoffee在网络拓展优化方面容易达成互惠共赢。公司可以借助旗下散布全国的2900个零售店铺加快PacificCoffee开设新店，而加入高品质咖啡店也会加强公司旗下部分高档超市与大卖场对顾客的吸引力。但是，鉴于公司今年度逾20亿港币的预计年度核心净利润，此次收购对于公司短期盈利贡献有限。z目前，我们维持对于2009至2011年的盈利预测，预测核心盈利分别为0.957港币(高于市场平均预测9%)、1.171港币(高于市场平均预测5%)和1.406港币，三年复合增长率24.7%。我们相信公司在未来两年能保持持续扩张与利润率继续改善，尤其是旗下大陆连锁超市与食品相关业务。维持32.00港元目标价，较昨日收盘价28.75港元有10%上升空间，对应32倍2010年预测核心盈利市盈率，26.1倍2011年核心盈利预测市盈率，对2010年每股估值有2%轻微溢价。维持“收集”评级。29June2010ChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK)FlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2CompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmark:HongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon:6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuyRelativePerformance15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable.AccumulateRelativePerformanceis5%to15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable.NeutralRelativePerformanceis-5%to5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral.ReduceRelativePerformanceis-5%to-15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorable.SellRelativePerformance-15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorable.SectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmark:HongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon:6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperformRelativePerformance5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorable.NeutralRelativePerformanceis-5%to5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutral.UnderperformRelativePerformance-5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorable.DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS(1)TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasdirectorinthelistedcorporationmentionedinthisResearchReport.(2)TheAnalystsandtheirassociateshavenofinancialinterestsinthelistedcorporationmentionedinthisResearchReport.(3)ExceptforShandongChenming(01812),GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdmorethan1%ofthemarketcapitalizationoflistedcorporationmentionedinthisResearchReport.(4)GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithinthepreceding12monthsforthelistedcorporationmentionedinthisResearchReport.DISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquire,purchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecurities(HongKong)Limited(GuotaiJunan).GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreports,includinginvestmentbanking,investmentservicesandetc.(forexample,theplacingagent,leadmanager,sponsor,underwriterorinvestproprietarily).Anyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersons,dealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompanies.AnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunan.ThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReport,GuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddataherein.ThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituation,souncert