我国房地产宏观调控有效性的分析与应用

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国房地产宏观调控有效性的分析与应用姓名：丁一申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：宣国良20070101198819981988-2005ANALYSISANDAPPLICATIONOFTHEEFFECTIVENESSOFMACRO-REGULATIONOFREALESTATEINDUSTRYINCHINAABSTRACTThemacro-regulationoftherealestatemeanstoguide,supervise,regulateandcontroltheoperationofrealestateindustrythrougheconomic,lawandadministrativemeansbythenationalgovernmentfortheharmonyofrealestateindustryandnationaleconomy.Withthedevelopmentofcognitionofeconomiclaw,themacro-regulationofrealestateinourcountryhasgonethroughacomparativelyflexuousevolution.Thesetting-upoflandcirculatedsystemin1988wasthesymboloftheformingoftherealestatemarket,butintheinitialstageofthemarket,thesubjectofmacro-regulationlackedexperienceofregulationandcontrolandentirelyrecognitionofthemarket,thusledtotheviolentfluctuationofrealestatemarket,andhamperedtherealestateeconomy'sprogressseriously.Withtheripeoftherealestatemacro-regulationsystem,theregulationmeanschangedgraduallyfromrelyingonmandatoryadministrationtotheindirectmodethatgiveprioritytoeconomicmeans,whichhasreducedthefluctuatingrangeoftherealestatemarketgreatly,especiallyafterthesuccessofsoft-landofeconomyin1998,therealestateeconomyhassteppedafastandcomparativelysteadydevelopment.However,atthesametime,thegovernmentshouldknowthattherestillarealotofproblemsinthemacro-regulationsystemofrealestateinfluencingtheimprovementofmacro-regulationvalidity.So,it’sveryimperativetosolvetheseproblemsfortheimprovementofmacro-regulationvalidity.Becauseofthis,thisstudyresearchesthevalidityofrealestatemacro-regulationofourcountrysince1988,anddiscussestheproblemthathowtoimprovethevalidityofmacro-regulationoftherealestatefurther.Itishopedthatthisstudycanbemeaningfultotheperfectionoftheknowledgesystemoftherealestatemacro-regulation.Thisstudybasedontheanalyzingofthetheoryofrealestatemacro-regulationandcybernetics,hasanalyzedthesystemofrealestatemacro-regulationintermsoftheobjectandprocessofregulation,andthendefinedthedefinitionofthevalidityofmacro-regulationoftherealestate.Concretelyspeaking,thevalidityoftherealestatemacro-regulationrefertoadjusttheeconomicsystemoftherealestatesteadily,trulyandfastbytherealestatemacro-regulation,whichmeanstomeettheneedofstability,accuracyandvelocity.Thestabilityreflectsthesizeofthefluctuatingrangeofthecourseofmacro-regulationoftherealestatemainly,thevelocityreflectsthesizeofskewingofthecourseofmacro-regulationoftherealestate,theaccuracyreflectsthesizeofbiasdegreebetweenactualandexpectantoperationresultoftheeconomicsystemoftherealestate.Onthebasisofcollectingthedataofthepastyears,thisstudyusesthestatisticalmethods,suchasvarianceanalyzing,toanalyzetherealestatemacro-regulationvalidityofourcountrybetween1988and2005fromthethreerespectsofstability,accuracyandvelocity,anddiscussesthereasonofthechangeofvalidity,comesupwiththeconclusionthatthechangeofvalidityduetothechangeofthesubject,object,informationstructureandindustryenvironmentoftherealestatemacro-regulationsystem,andwhat’smore,analyzesthesubjectthathowtoimprovethevalidityoftherealestatemacro-regulationofourcountry.Theinnovationsofthisdissertationcanbesummarizedasfollows:Firstly,itbringsthewayofusingcyberneticstosetupaframeworkofanalyzingthevalidityofrealestatemacro-regulation,andcarriesonstatisticalanalysistothechangeofthevalidityofrealestatemacro-regulationinthepastyears.Secondly,thisthesisresearchesthefourfactorsthatdecidethechangeofthevalidityofrealestatemacro-regulationfromtheaspectofsystemcybernetics,thesefactorsarethesubject,object,environmentandinformationstructureofthemacro-regulationsystem.Anditexplainsthemethodsofdecreasingthevalidityofrealestatemacro-regulationfromthefourfactors.KEYWORDS:realestate,macro-regulation,validity20071242007124200712411.1208090208019881198819901988198871.6%11.3%198919896%4.1%19903.8%197819902199119931990199132.7%199223199319971993419982001199319922-31997520022002[1]31988-20051.21.341.452.12.1.1WhiteM.(1975)J.E.Richard(1982)WheatonWilliamC.(1993)1996DennisJ.MckenzieRichardM.Betts(1996)M.Ralph(2000)StuartGabriel2002[1]GeoffreyMeenMarkAndrew2004[2]6KosukeAoki2005[3]2.1.22005199320042-12005200320042-1199320041993200472004[4]2005[5]20051996[6]2001200320032003[7]1999[8]2000[9]82.22.2.112392.2.21234102.2.31234112.32.3.1[16]122.3.21IrIIrIII12IVcVcVIcr∆rc∆=−0∆VIIIIIVIcr=2-1rc2-1Figure2-1ModelofCheckingDictionaryrc22-1r2-3132-2Figure2-2TypicalModelofControlSystem()ct()rt()ct()rt2-32-4()ct()rt2-32-4Figure2-3ConvergentControlProcessFigure2-4EmanativeControlProcess14()ct()rt2-521122-5Figure2-5ComparisonoftheAccuracyofTwoControlProcess()ct()rt()ct()rt2-8212-6Figure2-6ComparisonoftheVelocityofTwoControlProcess152.42.4.111621()rt23456()ct7172-7r(t)c(t)2-7Figure2-7ModelofMacro-regulationSystemofChineseRealEstateIndustry2.4.2182.4.3193.11987112619884121988101198819901988198871.6%11.3%198919896%198811.3%4.1%7.219903.8%1978199021991199320199019919.2%1992,31993199719934199820011993199721520022002200220052004306,7413.7571843.65200312120%35%7.5%20053264285123-1223-12002200512003.6.522004.420%35%32004.88.3142004.9.250%55%52005.3.