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Studyonhydrogeninfrastructureplanning氢能基础设施规划研究LIZhengGaoDanChangLeTsinghua-BPCleanEnergyCenterTsinghuaUniversityAug5,2008,ChangshaOutline„China’shydrogenenergydevelopmentdependsonthedemandforCO2mitigationCO2减排是中国发展氢能的主要驱动力„“Steadystate”comparisonofhydrogenpathways氢能供应链的“静态”比较„Dynamicmodelingofhydrogeninfrastructureevolution氢能基础设施动态规划模型中国面临的能源挑战EnergyChallengesChinaisFacing„能源需求巨大且快速增长，供应能力紧张Hugeandfast-increasingdemandandlimitedsupplycapacity„液体燃料短缺，高度依靠进口，能源安全堪忧Shortageofliquidfuelandhighdependencyonimport„环境污染严重Severepollution„农村和小城镇需要大量方便清洁能源Urbanizationandruralenergydemand„温室气体排放量巨大而且迅速增加HugeandincreasingGHGGeneralEnergySituationofChina中国整体能源形势1990-2005Energyconsumption-5.010.015.020.025.01990199520002005年份Energyconsumption/100MtcoaloilNGhydelnuclear中国2005年一次能源消费构成Oil21.06%NaturalGas2.72%Coal69.62%NuclearEnergy0.76%Hydroelectric5.84%OilNaturalGasCoalNuclearEnergyHydroelectricSource:BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergyJune2006EnergyConsumptioninChina(ExceptCoal)01002003004005001990199520002005YearMilliontoePetroleumNGHydroNuclear21oilimportdependencyofChina0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%199219941996199820002002200420062008yearpercentageofoilimportSource:BPstatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy能源安全堪忧Strongconcernonenergysecurity20052007Oilimportdependency60%??2020中国能源的困局：降低能源需求与能源安全及二氧化碳减排ChinaEnergydilemma:loweringdemandvs.energysecurity&CO21.替代石油进口引起化石能源消耗和二氧化碳排放增加OIDdecreasecauseshigherfossilfueluseandcarbonemission2.发展非化石能源有助于减少化石能源使用并减少二氧化碳排放MoreNon-fossilfuelusecoulddecreasefossilfueluseandcarbonemission3.碳埋存有助于减少二氧化碳，但会消耗更多的化石燃料CCScanfurtherdecreasecarbonemissionbutcausemorefossilfueluseLowcarboneconomyisthedirection低碳经济是发展方向„PresidentHuproposedfivemeasuresonclimatechangeissueon27June2008.胡主席等领导人重视日益增长的CO2排放问题，提出了五项举措…Todeveloptherecyclingeconomyandlowcarboneconomy,andinsistonthebasicnationalpolicyofresourceconservationandenvironmentalprotection发展循环经济、低碳经济，坚持节约资源和保护环境的基本国策…Toenhancetheabilitytoaddressclimatechangeissue,andcontinueconstructingecologicalprotectionprojects增强适应气候变化能力，继续开展生态保护重点工程建设…Tostrengthenthefoundationresearch,technologicaldevelopmentandinternationalscience&technologycooperationforaddressingclimatechangeissues发挥科技进步和创新的作用，加强应对气候变化的基础研究、技术研发和国际科技合作…Toimprovethemechanismsforaddressingtoclimatechange,improvelawsandregulations,andenhancethecapabilitiesofearlywarning,disasterreduction健全应对气候变化的体制机制，完善法律法规，提高预警能力、抵御能力、减灾能力…Toenhancetheconsciousnessandabilityofentiresocietytoaddressclimatechangeissue提高全社会参与的意识和能力，营造全民应对气候变化的良好环境WhydevelophydrogenenergyinChina?中国为何要发展氢能„HydrogenisthoughtasoneofthesolutionstoGHGandenergysecurityproblemsandalsoasthehopeforleapfrogofautomobileindustry.Uncertainty:氢能被认为是一种解决温室气体排放和能源安全问题的方案，也是中国汽车行业跳跃式发展的一种希望，其不确定性在于：…CostandavailabilityofFCVandH2infrastructure氢能汽车和基础设施的成本和可用性…H2productionalsoneedsenergy,esp.fossilenergyinforeseeablefuture氢能生产需要能源，特别是在近期需要化石能源„TherealdrivingforceforhydrogendevelopmentshouldberelatedwithCO2mitigation.TheprioritizedareaispowergenerationthatconsumeshalfofannualcoalproductioninChina中国发展氢能的驱动力是CO2减排。优先发展领域应为消耗全国一半煤炭的发电行业6+1CO2emission2005CO2emissionbyfuel中国化石能源消费FossilfuelconsumptioninChinaPrioritieswithrespecttoCO2reductionissue从CO2减排效果看优先发展顺序„Must:Energysavingandlowcarbonalternativeenergyshouldbeprioritized应优先考虑节能和发展低碳替代能源„Possible:LargescaleH2productionandpowergeneration+CCS附加CCS的大规模氢能生产和电厂„Longtermoption:H2transportation,dependingoncostsofHFCVtechnologyandH2infrastructure.氢能交通，这取决于燃料电池和氢能基础设施的成本。Outline„China’shydrogenenergydevelopmentdependsonthedemandforCO2mitigationCO2减排是中国发展氢能的主要驱动力„“Steadystate”comparisonofhydrogenpathways氢能供应链的“静态”比较„Dynamicmodelingofhydrogeninfrastructureevolution氢能基础设施动态规划模型ApproachtoSteadyStateComparisonandPathwayDefinitions氢能路线定义和比较方法„LCA:LifeCycleAssessment全生命周期分析„WTT:WellToTank从油井到油箱…1kgH2(gaseousstate)inthetankofavehicleistakenastheunittoevaluatetheenergy,environmental,andeconomicperformancesofdifferentpathwaysfromexploitationofrawmaterialtohydrogenfuelingintoFCVs.以汽车油箱中1kg氢作为计算单位，分析比较不同路线从原材料开采到氢气加注整个过程的能量、环境和经济特性。¾“Methanolpathway”:Usingcoalgasificationornaturalgasreformingtechnologiestoproducemethanolcentrally,andtransportingmethanolbytrucktothehydrogendemandareas,thenapplyingonsitemethanolreformingtechnologytoproducehydrogenatforecourtstation.甲醇路线：集中煤气化或天然气重整制甲醇，用卡车将甲醇运到氢能需求区域，在线制氢Apromisingtechnologyforcompacton-siteH2production（DICP）一种有应用前景的在线制氢技术（大连化物所）Anewinfrastructurestrategy----MethanolasH2carrier一种全新的基础设施战略----将甲醇作为氢载体MethanolTodayM15-M100bus+FutureGasholH2InfrastructurecontinuedCostanalysisforpathways各路线的成本分析„Effectstudyofdistributiondistanceonthetotalhydrogencostinafull-rangeangle:各路线氢能总成本随距离变化的关系研究Coal-basedhydrogenpathwaysNG-basedhydrogenpathways…MEOHpathwayshowsthecostadvantage,especiallyformiddleandlongdistancedelivery.甲醇路线有成本优势，尤其是对于中长距离运输…Pipelinepathwayisquitesuitableforshortdeliverydistanceandlargescale,tooffsetitshighcapitalcost.由于管道的高投资成本，它适合于短距离大规模运输。1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.002004006008001000km$/kgH2GaseousLiquidPipelineMethanol1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.002004006008001000km$/kgH2Me