会议论文报告

CUGEvolutionaryModelofCoalMineWaterHazardsBasedonMulti-agentChengzhuGong,LanlanLi,KejunZhu,YanhuiGaoChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Wuhan2011-9-30CUGCONTENTSIntroductionEvolutionarymodelofcoalminewaterhazardsSimulationwithNetLogoConclusionsCUGINTRODUCTIONCoalwater-inrushaccidentsincreasing-Coalminesareincomplexhydro-geologicalconditions-Extensionofcoalminingdepth-CoaldemandconstantlyincreasingPreventionofcoalwater-inrusharerenewedattentionCUGINTRODUCTIONCoalminewaterhazardcognizance-Isacomplexandadaptivephenomenon-PossessnonlineardynamiccharacteristicsPreventionmethodsofcoalwater-inrush-Waterburstingcoefficient、Vulnerabilityindexmethod-Criticallayeranalysis、Faulttreeanalysis-GIS、DC、TEM&InformationfusionanalysisCUGINTRODUCTIONDeficiencyofthetraditionalmethod-Failedtodescribethenonlineardynamicphenomena-NotstudiedontheviewofsystemscienceThecreativepointsofthethesis-Solvingbycomplexsystemstheory&methods-UsingAgent-basedmodelingandsimulation(ABMS)CUGEVOLUTIONARYModelFormationmechanismofcoalwater-inrushUnsafeacts·Drilling·MiningEnergyliberationUnsafeconditions·Wateraccumulation·ChannelsactivationIncentiveAbnormalwaterinflowincreaseUnreasonabledrainagemeasures·Minesump&Equipmentoverload·Technicaldefects,ManagementfaultDrainageinvalidationWaterbalanceincontrollablePreventiontechniqueCoalminewaterhazardsFormationPredictionRiskassessmentPreventionWater-inrushprinciple&Energyaccidentalrelease&HumanerrortheoryCUGEVOLUTIONARYModelEvolutionmechanismofcoalwater-inrushIncentiveHydrogeologyPreventiontechniqueWaterheadChannelsDrainageCoalminingwaterhazardstraitsCoalminingwaterhazardsMiningactivitiesWaterChannelDrainageandemergencymeasures.MiningactivitiesCUGEVOLUTIONARYModelAgent-basedmodelofcoalwater-inrushWaterheadsAgentSystemboundaryPopulationevolutionDrainagesAgentChannelsAgentMiningactivitiesAgentInteractioninpopulationFeedbackmechanismPreventionmeasuresAgentsinteractiveinthemodel.CUGSIMULATIONProcessesSimulationplatform:NetLogoParameterssetting-Watersourcesrank:[0-5]-Channelpermeability:[0-1]-Miningactivity:#workers*N-Drainageability:baseonwatervolume-Iterations:5000CUGSIMULATIONProcessesSimulationinterfacesinNetLogoTwodimensionalareaisdividedintofourparts:waterarea、channelarea、miningactivityarea&drainagearea.Changeparameterswillsimulatedifferentsituations.CUGSIMULATIONResultsCurveExplaincurve①water-richnessofthemine;curve②interceptingeffectofwater-prooflayer.curve③risklevelsofwaterinminingareas.curve④drainageabilityoftheminingarea.CUGSIMULATIONResultsSimulationsituationExplain(a)Safetyminingcondition(b)AbetterconditionsofwaterprooflayerCUGSIMULATIONResultsSimulationsituationExplain(c)Water-prooflayerisdamagedsuddenly(d)LowdrainageabilityCUGSIMULATIONResultsSimulationsituationExplain(e)Waterpluggingtechnologyisusing(f)DrainageabilityisimprovedCUGCONCLUSIONSUsingABMStostudytheevolutionofcoalminewaterhazardsisadopting-Evolutionprocessisdynamicallypresented-Resultscouldexplainthesituationincoalmine-OwinggoodextensionabilityCheckingsomepreventionseffectivenessCUG감사합니다!Thankyou!