32-abstract-Status quo and prospects for the world

StatusquoandprospectsfortheworldstainlesssteelindustryShorttomediumrangeoutlookPeterKaumanns,DirectorofEconomics&Statistics,ISSFEmailaddress:[e-mail]paperconcentratesonISSF’sworkregardingstatisticalanalysis,high-lightingactualandfuturemarketdevelopment.Thepaperexplains“stockcycles”,andhowstockcyclesinfluenceshorttermdemand.Examplesaregivenforcoldrolledflatproducts–showingdifferencesbetweendifferentareasoftheworld.Thepaperpresentsashortandmediumtermoutlookforthegeneraleconomy,withaspecialviewonChinaandhowthestainlesssteelindustryinChinamaydevelopbasedonthiseconomicoutlook.Theglobalstainlesssteelindustry’sreactiononrawmaterialsupplyshocksisalsoillustrated.Inthiscontextnotonlythedemandside,butalsothesupplysideisdemonstrated:willtheglobalstainlesssteelmakingcapacitybesufficienttomeetfuturedemand–oristhereariskofover-capacityinthenearfuture?ThepaperincludesaviewonthecapacitydevelopmentinChinaandelsewhere,anditforecaststheimpactthismayhaveontheglobalstainlesssteelindustry.WillChinastilldependonimportedstainlesssteel,orwillChinabecomeanetexporter?Whichmightbetheconsequencesintermsofindustryre-structuring?WillAsiafollowtheconcentrationpatternintheAmericasandEurope?