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[]本文对比研究了日本和美国的房地产泡沫,分析了房地产泡沫产生的原因总结了一些共同点,并对中国房地产的供求关系进行了分析本文认为,由于中国仍处于高速增长阶段,城市化水平仍然较低,并且房地产业是半市场化的,因此即使存在泡沫,也不会出现日本式崩盘[]房地产泡沫;资本泡沫;城市化:(1980),男,中国人民银行上海总部(上海,200120),博士研究方向:宏观经济和货币政策,,,,:,;;,,(),()(ReinhartandRogoff,2008)1987,1991,19911985615%,809%,199119852071%,3029%1987,1989,!,∀#,19914,!2010/122739119924,,,,,19895311990830525%6%19891990,58%77%,111%88%1991,(),,,25,70,,7070,1980199012,,,1GDP(%)()(%)1961-1965926791966-19701117211971-1975457591976-1980447621981-1985337671986-1990497741991-199515781数据来源:日本统计局(),801980,∀#,,,,,1987,,,;,,,,,∀#92!2010/12273,(),,,19859(G5)∀#,,,,1986150%1987225%,(2),,1989GDP180%,,,,198744%,1988,,25%,19895,,,,(2)2GDP(%)(M2+CD)(%)CPI(%)WPI(%)1985448420-081986298706-4719874410401-3119886511207-0619895299231919905211731151991333632101992100617-09数据来源:日本统计局(),,,,,,,1985-1992,473,198410%,70%,,,,(),,,,1981,!2010/12273935000110%,153%,,,∀#,,,,,,902001,,,20002003,9%-11%,20042005,15%-17%20052,,,20072,,,1,137%,,()20022006,,,2001311,∀911#,2000,200361%,,20044,2002,,,,,,,,20046,,,(3)3GDP(%)(%)(%)200041344020011128472002181658200325236094!2010/122732004362755200531345120062732462007212946数据来源:BEA(),,,,,,,,,,,,,225,20%,6%,442%,,(4),2005,,,20073,,4[1]()(FRM)107919(ARM)9035040ARM79998ARM66300ARM15000数据来源:Bernanke(2010)(),,,,,[2],,,2006GDP57%,,,,,,2000,,,!2010/1227395,,,,,,,,,,,,,,??(一)房地产供求情况1,,,20002032006271,11,200046,51,()(),,2009466%,15002006271,41,80,,13%,18,80001000,2006271,27119,,10,2005-200947,,,,,,,96!2010/12273,,,,;,,2008,,,15%2009,,,,2,38,04%,,45%,2003,,,,20042009,403837413732(2007,)2,2009,,,,,,,,∀#,,(二)中国房地产即使存在泡沫,也不会出现日本式崩盘,,,,,,,,1,,,;,1979200898%,200987%,,,!2010/122739770,1971-198044%,1981-198533%,1986-1990,49%2,,,1,47%,70%,20,,,1985767%,1014,1/103,,,,,,,,,GDP120%,GDP20%,80180%75%20103,82,20%,53,,3,058%,532%,;,90%(),,,∀#168,175%,,!,,∀#,,,,,,,70,,,,,,,98!2010/12273(),,,,2007,,,,∀#,,;,,,,,(),∀#∀#∀#,,,∀#,,,,,,,,,(),,,∃:[1]BernankeBenS2010MonetaryPolicyandtheHousingBubbleSpeechatAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation[2]ReinhartCarmenM,RogoffKennethS2008BankingCrises:AnEqualOpportunityMenaceWorkingPaperInternationalComparisonofRealEstateBubbleandChina%sRealEstateDevelopmentZhangRuoxueAbstract:ThispapermakesacomparativestudyoftherealestatebubblesinJapanandU.S.,analyzesthecausesofrealestate%sbubbles,andsummarizesthecommonalities.Italsoanalyzessupply-demandrelationshipofChina%srealestate.ItholdstheviewthatasChinaisstillintheaccelerationprocesswithlowerurbanizationlevelandsemi-marketrealestatemarket,China%srealestatemarketwillnotcrashlikeJapaniftherearebubbles.Keywords:BubbleofRealEstate;AssetBubble;Urbanization[收稿日期:2010920责任编辑:廖中新][]F2933[]A[]1000-8306(2010)12-0091-09!2010/1227399