基于FMCDM的水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估系统研究

硕士学位论文基于FMCDM的水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估系统研究STUDYONTHESCREENINGANDASSESSMENTSYSTEMFORTHEEMERGENCYTREATMENTSOFWATERSOURCEREGIONBASEDONFUZZYMULTI–CRITERIADECISIONMAKING李梅哈尔滨工业大学2012年7月国内图书分类号：X321学校代码：10213国际图书分类号：541密级：公开工学硕士学位论文基于FMCDM的水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估系统研究硕士研究生：李梅导师：王鹏教授申请学位：工学硕士学科：环境科学与工程所在单位：市政环境工程学院答辩日期：2012年7月授予学位单位：哈尔滨工业大学ClassifiedIndex:X321U.D.C:541DissertationfortheMasterDegreeinEngineeringSTUDYONTHESCREENINGANDASSESSMENTSYSTEMFORTHEEMERGENCYTREATMENTSOFWATERSOURCEREGIONBASEDONFUZZYMULTI–CRITERIADECISIONMAKINGCandidate：LiMeiSupervisor：Prof.WangPengAcademicDegreeAppliedfor：MasterofEngineeringSpeciality：EnvironmentalScience&EngineeringAffiliation：SchoolofMunicipalandEnvironmentalEngineeringDateofDefence：July,2012Degree-Conferring-Institution：HarbinInstituteofTechnology哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文I摘要中国的水源地突发性环境污染事故频繁爆发，威胁人类赖以生存的水源，污染团进入河体不经有效处理，随河流迁移致使供水厂原水严重超标，超过供水厂的常规或应急处理能力，而不得不停水造成了严重的社会影响和经济损失。针对水源地突发环境污染，亟需及时有效的河道污染削减技术，本文在水源地污染应急处置过程分析的基础上，通过引入模糊多准则决策技术具有处理含有不确定信息的复杂问题优势，构建水源地应急处置技术筛选与评估系统。基于框架的知识表示法，构建了水源地污染应急处置技术库知识结构，并在分析应急处置技术整个生命周期的基础上，构建水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估指标体系。在应急处置专家和国内外文献调研的基础上，采用框架表示方法对复杂的应急处置技术进行知识表示，建立了应急处置技术总框架、技术污染特征子框架、技术效果特征子框架、工程实施特征子框架，完成了应急处置技术库设计。分析应急处置技术整个生命周期的影响因素，以应急处置技术方案工程设施为主线，构建了水源地污染应急处置技术评估指标，包括技术、工程、环境、社会、经济五大指标及对应的26个子指标。基于模糊多准则决策（FMCDM）技术，结合应急处置技术筛选与评估决策过程分析，构建水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估决策模型。分析应急处置技术实际过程，构建了应急处置技术筛选与评估决策支持模型。筛选出水源地污染应急处置技术决策信息，并进行应急处置技术决策综合信息数据库设计。将模糊集理论与多准则决策技术结合构建应急处置技术方案优选模型，并用算例演示技术方案优选过程，得出优选模型对技术筛选与评估的有效性。基于.Net平台，采用C#的面向对象程序化设计语言，并采用Oracle10g和VisualStudio2008为主要开发工具，对基于模糊多准则决策（FMCDM）的水源地污染应急处置技术筛选与评估系统进行程序化实现。系统包括技术筛选与评估模块、综合信息管理模块及人机交互模块三大主要功能模块。最后，案例验证结果表明本系统能够根据污染特征准确的检索出备选技术方案，并依据多个准则对技术备选方案筛选评估，最终输出备选方案的排序。本系统可以准确的对应急处置技术筛选与评估，为水源地污染处置技术决策提供支持，显著提高应急处置的时效性。关键词：模糊多准则决策；水源地突发污染；应急处置；筛选与评估系统；应急管理哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文IIAbstractWiththefrequentoutbreaksofaccidentalpollutioninwatersource,thewaterforhumansurvivalisseriouslythreatened.Theuntreatedpollutionplumeisdischargedintowaterbodiesandmoveswiththeriver,whichleadstoseriouslyexceededtherawwaterofthewatersupplyplant,beyondtheroutineoremergencydisposalcapacity.Andthewatersupplyplantisforcedtocutoffthewatersupplywhichcausingserioussocialimpactsandeconomiclosses.Aimingatoutbreaksofaccidentalpollutioninwatersource,it’sapressingneedforthetimelyandeffectiveriverpollutionreductiontechnology.Inthispaper,onthebasisofanalysisofwatersourcespollutionemergencyresponseprocess,byintroducingthefuzzymulti-criteriadecision-makingtechnologytotheemergencydisposalofthewaterpollution,thescreeningandassessmentsystemisestablished.Onthebasisoftheframeknowledgerepresentation,thestructureoftheknowledgeofthewatersourcepollutionemergencyresponseisconstructed,andonthebasisofanalyzingtheentirelifecycleoftheemergencyresponsetechnology,watersourcepollutionemergencyresponsescreeningandevaluationindexsystemisconstructed.Combinedwiththeemergencyresponseexpertsandliteratureresearch,theemergencyresponsetechnologydatabaseisdesignedbasedontheframeworkknowledgerepresentation.Thegeneralframeworkoftheemergencytreatmenttechnologyisconstructed,whichincludesthesub-framesoftechnologyapplicabletothepollutioncharacteristics,thesub-framesoftechnicaleffectcharacteristicsandsub-framesofprojectimplementationconditionscharacteristic.Theengineeringfacilitiesofthetechnicalprogramoftheemergencytreatmentisfocused,linkthetechnicaldesignwiththeaccesstomaterialsandenergy,buildingconstruction,operationandmanagement,wastedisposalandremovalofprojectfacilitiesandenvironmentalprotection,socialimpactandeconomicfactorstoconstructthewateremergencyresponseassessmentindicators,involvingfivecriteriaandtheir26sub-criteria.Basedonfuzzymulti-criteriadecision-makingtechnology,combinedwiththescreeningandevaluationofemergencyresponsedecision-makingprocessanalysis,thetechnologyscreeningandevaluationofwatersourcespollutionemergencyresponsedecision-makingmodelisconstructed.Theactualprocessofemergencyresponsetechnologyisanalyzed,andthetechnologyscreeningandevaluationofemergencyresponsedecisionsupportmodelhasbeenbuilt.Thewatersource哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文IIIpollutionemergencyresponsedecision-makinginformationtodesignacomprehensiveinformationdatabaseofemergencyresponsetechnologydecisionshasbeenfiltered.Theemergencyresponseoptimizationmodelbasedonfuzzysettheoryandmulti-criteriadecision-makingtechnologyhasbeenconstructedandanexampledemoisusedinprogramoptimizationprocesstovalidatetheeffectivenessoftheoptimizationmodel.BasedonNetplatform,C#,object-orientedprogrammingdesignlanguage,Oracle10gandVisualStudio2008asthemaindevelopmenttools,watersourcepollutionemergencyresponsetechnologyscreeningandevaluationsystembasedonfuzzymulti-criteriadecisionmaking(FMCDM)isprogramed,whichcontains3mainfunctionalmodules,thatisscreeningandevaluationmodules,integratedinformationmanagementmoduleandtheman-machineinteractionmodule.Finally,thenumericalexampleshowsthatthissystemonthebasisoftheretrievalandmatching,providesacomprehensiveassessmentofanumberoftechnicalsolutions,andoutputthesortofalternatives.Thesystemcanaccuratelyscreenandevaluatetheemergencyw