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20095、。。、2009Lonngren2008Ehrlich1971Schaffer2008。*【】1978～2007STIRPAT、、、。。。【】【】。*2007BAC03A11-05。68。。。。。。“”。1988～19901993。。、。。。。、2008。。30。19824.4120073.172008。45324。。。。IPATSTIRPAT。、IPATEhrlichHoldren1971Dietz1994IPATSTIRPAT。、3。。69200951.IPAT、、。IPAT。=××=×××。STIRPATLnI*=a0+b1×lnHtotal+b2×lnPfamilysize+c×lnHC*+d×lnEN*+e1I*HtotalPfamilysizeHC*EN*。a0b1、b2、c、de。。。LnI×1-Rexp-imp=A+B1×lnHtotal+B2×lnPfamilysize+C×lnHC+D×lnEN+E2IRexp-impHCENAB1、B2、C、DE。2.。——。。。。1978～2007、、、、。70①、、《①=÷÷100=÷÷÷100=-÷。1996～2008《》、19982002～2005《》、2007～2008《》、1978～2006、。11978～20071978184.01567.6-0.0054076894.41206411979———4164894.41209861980217.41452.0-0.0064069864.41213961981———4029254.41220571982———4312284.41225381983———4546864.35230001984———4943364.30234761985340.21115.0-0.0505358734.24241341986356.31097.7-0.0415634804.19249271987377.41075.5-0.0126012304.13258341988401.31099.8-0.0196444534.07269331989375.41197.4-0.0146547364.02278881990384.91144.20.0226585543.96288301991416.41066.30.0206914773.91294581992468.7965.50.0097214353.86300391993510.1896.5-0.0207701983.80305741994540.7863.30.0108180713.75311041995593.3856.40.0238847173.70316581996648.8839.20.0149259713.70321681997679.3771.10.0439148683.64326631998720.6686.70.0438661413.62332091999774.2645.00.0279050173.58337662000836.9606.10.0209288683.44345532001885.4570.70.0179514403.43351062002947.2546.90.02110095773.393571720031005.5565.20.01511872443.383629020041080.5579.40.01713906753.363704120051177.4569.00.04615342443.133791520061303.2547.30.06716645893.173873720071434.6525.40.081—3.1739574/71200951996～2008》、、、、、1998、2002～2005《》、2007～2008《》1982、19901995～20071996～2008《》1978～1981、1983～19891991～19941964、19821990CDIAC。、VIF1088.39、30.53、29.6830.87。。。·1999。。。1272k。kVIFk。R21、2。2。、、、、。2-1.046690.15949-0.298100.00000————0.205030.020660.309790.000000.295070.026770.445840.00000-0.078640.05406-0.074910.08104-0.179930.05772-0.171380.00272————1.158330.225100.299950.000038.954391.2793300.00000-0.593912.8428000.41831K0.150.15R20.942560.92143F77.9425878.17900F00R20.930470.909640.508540.099350.256080.00003————R2。0.1。STIRPAT、STIRPAT。R2。3。1997～20021997。31978～20077320095。。。0.001。△PFSPFS△HH-0.4861%0.486%。1%1%2.06。。41982①。198230%1990。△HCHC△PFSPFS-5.105△ENEN△PFSPFS13.3101%5.105%13.310%。△HCHC△HH2.480①y′0x0。419821978。74△ENEN△HH-6.4661%2.480%6.466%。△HCHC△PP3.926△ENEN△PP-6.4381%3.926%6.438%。1。2。。。30。。。。1982、、。1982、、。1982～20075。5。57520095。51985～2007528385.6843534.359.64%。。1985～2007550414.11233040.0124.02%。①。6。200738.68%10.36%。6②③1982～200728.12%30.06%。“”“”。7。71%1%。。。①t=t-t1982×100÷ttt2t1982t。②t=t-1982×100÷1982。tt1982。③t=t-1982×100÷1982。tt1982。676。。。712.5%19908%。1990、、1990。。。。。。1982～20072628.12%。。。“”、2008。30。“”。、。、STIRPAT7、7720095STIRPAT。。。。。。。30。。、。。1.1993《》《》5。2.、2008《》《》1。3.1999《》。4.2008《2008》。5.、2009《》《》2。6.《》1996～2008。7.《》1998、2002～2005。8.《》2007、2008。9.CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter2009Fossil-FuelCO2Emissions.．10.DietzTRosaEA1994RethinkingtheEnvironmentalImpactsofPopulationAffluenceandTechnology.HumanEcologyReview.1277-300.11.LonngrenK.E.BaiE.-W.2008OntheGlobalWarmingProblemDuetoCarbonDioxide.EnergyPolicy.41567-1568．12.PaulR.EhrlichJohnP.Holdren1971ImpactofPopulationGrowth.Science.NewSeries.17139771212-1217.13.W.M.Schaffer2008HumanPopulationandCarbonDioxide.EnergyPolicy.362761-2764.7820095IncomeDisparityandDemand-inducedInnovationinChinaWangJunLiuDong·58·Thispaperempiricallyinvestigatestherelationshipbetweenincomedisparityandcorporationinnovation.Wefindthatcorporationinnovationpositivelycorrelateswithincomedisparityinshortrun,andincomedisparityinfluencesinnovationthroughdemandscaleandconsumptionstructure.Thelongruneffect,however,isinareversedirection.Theincomedisparityeffectvariesinregions,showingthatitimpactsinnovationpositivelyinshortrunbutnegativelyinlongrunintheeasternandcentralregionsandtheimpactisnegativeinbothshortrunandlongruninthewesternregion.ImpactsofHouseholdPatternonCarbonEmissionChenJiayingPengXizheZhuQin·68·Thispaperempiricallyanalyzestheimpactofhouseholdpatternchangesoncarbonemissionintheperiodof1978to2007.BymodifyingtheextendedSTIRPATmodel,wetransformpersonal-scaledenvironmentalimpactstohousehold-scaledenvironmentalimpacts,andanalyzetheeffectsofhouseholdsize,totalnumberofhouseholds,householdconsumption,andenergyintensityoncarbonemission.Theresultsshowthathouseholdsizeandhouseholdnumbershavegreaterimpactsonemission,andthemodifiedextendedSTIRPATmodelcanbetterexplainthecarbonemission.Giventhathouseholdsprovidemoresufficientinformationonconsumptionbehavior,theymayserveasabettermeasuringunitforfossil-fuelcarbonemissionthanindividualsdo.ImpactsofPopulationMigrationtoShanghaionItsWorld-classCityBuildingWangGuixinYuFengqing·79·Inademographicperspective,thispaperreviewsthechallengesfacingShanghaiinconstructingaworld-classcity,makesananalysisofthesignificanceofpopulationdevelopment(especiallypopulationmigration)inthepractice,andsummariestheexperiencesofinternalmigrationinJapananddevelopmentofTokyocityandtheTokyometropolitanarea.Problemsandconsequent