排污权交易机制有效性的实验经济学研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文排污权交易机制有效性的实验经济学研究姓名：吴茗申请学位级别：硕士专业：国际贸易学指导教师：秦向东2008010180MARKETEFFICIENCYOFEMISSIONTRADE–ANEXPERIMENTALSTUDYABSTRACTWiththerapiddevelopmentofindustrialization,thenaturalenvironmenthasbeenseriouslydestructed.Moreandmoreattentionhasbeenpaidonenvironmentalprotection,manycountriesarelookingforaneffectivemeansofpollutioncontrol.Emissiontradinghasbeenappliedbymoreandmorecountriesandregionsasamethodwiththecharacteristicsofbothenvironmentalqualityassuranceandcost-effectiveness.Chinahasbeganthepilotofemissiontradeinthe1980s,however,becauseChina’smarketeconomicsystemisstillnotperfect,therearemanyproblemsmaybestudiedduringtheimplementationprocess.Thispaperusesexperimentalmethodtosimulateproductmarketsandemissionpermittradingmarkets.Itexplorestheimpactoftaxpolicyandpermittradepolicyonthepricebehaviorofproductmarket,andcomparetheresultwiththetheoreticalequilibriumpredictionsofneoclassicaleconomics;usesnonparametrictestmethodtocomparethestatisticalsignificanceofthetwopolicies,andtheimpactonmarketefficiencyandpricebehaviorofproductmarketifthereismarketpowerinpermitmarketwhichiscausedbyinitialallocation;italsostudiestheinteractionofthetwomarket.Theconclusionofthestudyandthemaininnovationsareasfollows:Withinthesimplesettingexploredhere,theexperimentalresultsrevealthefactthatthetaxpolicyandpermittradepolicyhavethesimilarperformanceinpollutioncontrol,butthemarketefficiencyofpermittradepolicyissignificantlyhigherthenthatoftaxpolicy.However,whenthereismarketpowerinpermittrademarket,theefficiencywillbesignificantlylowerthanacompetitivepermittradingmarket.KEYWORDS:Emissiontrade,Taxpolicy,Marketpower,Pricebehavior,Marketefficiency11.1902070801996122201.219681.33420602.11969197219792.1.11“”“”“”“”2534EPA“”2.1.21979“”“”1980198961“”“”710001990“”“”“”“”198050%62.8%“”1995~1998213030901/390040019892010“”9019905723252010102000“”72.219551970“”1971“”1974“”2-1CFC’S:OECD199482.32.3.11985“”200019901987“”1988“”17198919911991102119941993“”19957“”201020001995101996“”129“”2010“”9“”31272020032.3.2801993SO219824019994“”20011800“”SO261020019“”26SO2SO2200220022003“”17017002.3.312199919952-21652.2428.27%848.3337.84%4105.7553.87%2290.9637.12%112-21999199519951999199919959995%2369.521858511.5221.581743.571159584.5733.531731.151175556.1532.135844.2441921652.2428.272233.191389844.1937.88.444.34.1449.052241.631393848.3337.8427.011116.0159.27285.35176109.3538.32669.19179490.1973.251445.56750695.5648.121699.81889810.8147.73494.8215111983.8256.767621.7435164105.7453.876171.9638812290.9637.122000812133.13.1.1EmissionTradeTradablePermitsTradableRightsAllowanceTradeTradableCredits1“”2creditallowance“”1Wikipedia22005143-112201152251524033.1.21820“”32012-5+520203-1152070“”“”CACDales,J.H.1968“”4EPA“”20051404J,Dales,Pollution,propertiesandprices[M],UniversityofTorontonpress,1968,9816“”520“”3.1.355Godby(1996)MarketpowerinEmissionpermitdoubleauctions173.23.2.11GHG6Pigou1920Baumol1981TaxCoase196062007.492p19-2118“”1968Dales“”Montgomery1972BaumolOates1981Klaassen1992Tientenberg1992HahnHester1989ETP19856VanDykeSO2SO2CramtonKerr1999GHGGreenHouseGasMillimanPrince198919Hahn1984,MisolekElder1989TientenbergDoucetStrauss1994Montero2000Stavins1995MalikEgterteWeberBohiBurtraw1992GHGGHGCogginsSwinton1996SO2SO2SO2MaedaSO2GHGGHG22090REF————SO2203.2.21Plott1983Plott“”Plottspill-overcostPlott——Plottdouble-auctionpricinginstitution7PlottmarketfailurePlott7——MarketPowerCronshawBrown-Kruse1999Franciosi1998CasonElliottandVanBoening1999Franciosi1998CronshawBrown-Kruse1999----Revenueneutralcallauction128“”Smith1981Godby2002Smith10155P405-40825Smith1981marketpower——PlottGodby12Plott4.24.2.14-1“”ePeQ26Plott1983BABCDatomisticfashionPlott19834.2.21APeQe4-1DBC274-2ABCD“”“”ABCDQ0Q20Q4-2BCBC“+”'eP0Q3“”+DABCQ0Pe’PeQe4-2280QBC'eP0Q4.2.34-2)(QDP=)(QCPP=)(QCPS=dQQCQDRQS∫−=00)]()([[4-1]πdQQCQDRQS∫−==00)]()([ππη[4-2]4.34.3.11111294.3.2Plott1983“”4-34-14-1123456789101112123023023023024524528330029028624324322302332332442462462782792692442422423230233241244248248277270252244240240423123324124525424927526924724323423952322332422472582492722692472412302396236234244248263255261268246240225233725123524825227426326524423622582702382612562852562402329241295275305240228102482374-1121-67-1213023023023023123123625127024468300279270269269268265256240237244812242444-3Plott19834-21266314-2122224102201132320350214544541504-24-24-3eQ130Q4-3*1234567891011121*9310011812613013012617610011013013024525801251501500030951501503452580125150150003095150150445258012515015000309515