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23220082ADVANCESINEARTHSCIENCEVol.23No.2Feb.,2008:100128166(2008)022017421231,1,2,3(1.,100101;2.,100049;3.,100029):,,,;IPCC,,,50100,,,,,:;;;;:X26;P467:A1,,,[13],[4,5],,,(IPCC)[6],190620050.740.18;50,,,,,,[79],,,,;,3:2007209211;:2008201208.3:(:2005CB422006);(:KZCX22YW2310)(:KZCX22YW2305).:(19712),,,,.E2mail:zhangxq@igsnrr.ac.cn,[10],,2,[11],[12],,,[13,14][15,16],,,[11]IPCC[12],,[7],IPCC,IPCC(EMICs),NCAR2PCM()HadCM3(Hadley)ECHAM5/MPI2OM()(AOGCMs)[6]1980[17,18],1990[19,20],CO2IPCC[6,12,21,22],(WCRP),(AMIP)(PILPS)(CMIP),AMIP,,[23]TaylorAMIP,10[24]PILPS,;,,[25](CMIP1),,,1/2,[26](CMIP2)16,0.95;,[27](CMIP3),20,21,LASG/IAPGOALSCMIP[12],BCC2CM1CMIP3,(EMICs)EMICs()[12]EMICs[28],,EMICsGCMs,,3IPCC,,,[27],IPCC5712:[22,29]1992IPCC,IS92,[22],IS926(IS92aIS92f),IS92aCO21%IS92CO2CH4N2OS,CO2CO2,IS92,,2000IPCC(SRES),,SRES[29]SRES4,,A1:,,,;A2:,,;B1:,,;B2:A2,,SRES40(1),A13:(A1FI)(A1T)(A1B),6(A1BA1TA1FIA2B1B2),(Illustrativescenarios)SRES40,SRES(2a)SRES,2100CO254010-697010-6(175028010-690%250%)(2b)IS92,SRES,(1),,SRESIS92IPCC,,[31]:();()();();(),1SRES(IPCC[29])Fig.1TherangeofSRESscenarios6712344.1,IPCC,[21,22],34[12],[6],IPCC,,,,IPCC4.1.1CO2CO2,[3234],Washington[33](NCAR)(PCM)CO21%(IS92a),CO2,1.27/10a,CO222.89/10a(CMIP2)19,CO21%,CO2,20(20612080)1.13.1,1.8;-0.2%5.6%,2.5%[35]IAP,CO2,CO2,1.75[36],IPCC,LASG/IAPGOAL,CO21%[37],IPCC,CO2,1.65,IPCC2IS92a6SRESCO2[30]Fig.2EmissionsandconcentrationsofCO2forthesixillustrativeSRESscenarios,comparedwiththeIS92ascenario[30]a:CO2;b:CO2a:emissionsofCO2;b:concentrationsofCO24.1.2IPCCIS92SRESIPCC,[3841]IPCC[12]()IS92a,(GG),20212050196119901.02.1,0.9%4.4%;(GS),0.81.7,0.5%3.3%()SRESA2,2021205030196119900.51.4,1.2%()SRESB2,202120503019617712:19900.51.7,1.6%,,,:2050,,SRES,IPCC,[6],200.2/10a;2000,0.1/10a,1.8(1.12.9),4.0(2.46.4)2(GOALS24.0NCC/IAPT63)IPCC,NCC/IAPT63,A2A1B213.6/100a2.5/100a,;,[42],(),,,IPCC,,[6]4.2IPCC(DDC)7[4]IS92aSRES,721,,,,,21,,NCC/IAPT63(GGGSA2A1BB2)21,100,[4244],[4548],[48]SRESA2,2130,;0.10.8mm/d5,,,,,[49]:(),60100km;(),;(),()[50],[51]723,,50100;(),,AOGCM[52],AOGCM,[50,52]5.1(GCM)(RCM),[53]RCMsGCMs,GCMs[12],,(105106km2)2,50%RCM,()[5456]Whetton[54]RCM87123CO2,,RCMGCM,RCMGCM,,AOGCM[5761]Gao[58]RegCM2CSIROR21L9,,HadleyRCM2PRE2CIS,,[61,62],,,21,(APN)(START)(RMIPforAsia),21[63]5.2:[12],,,GCM[64],,,[65],,[12],,[66],,[67,68]NCEP/NCAR(Na2tionalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch)ECMWF(TheEu2ropeanCentreforMedium2RangeWeatherForecasts),[69],,,GCM[70],,,,Benestad[71,72];[70],,3[12],[73][74,75],,HadCM2ECHAM4CERES-RICE3.5,4[75](),()[7678][12]66.1,,IPCC,3:;;[12],:(1)(2)(3)(4)[4]9712:,IPCC[12],(IPCC),[79]()CO2IPCC1.54.5,[12],,[4],,,,,[10]6.2,?21[8082],Knutti[80],IPCC40%,5%,(PDF),Murphy[82],CO2,,[83,84],La[84]:,IPCC,/AOGCMs,,[85],[8688]IPCC,[6](),,,[6]7,,IPCC,21,,[6],,,,[89],,(ESM)[90],2000(ESMF)[91],GENIE(GridEnabledIntegratedEarthSystemModel)[92],,,,,,:(1),,,,08123(2),,,,(3),,,,,(4),,,,,,,,(References):[1]HaeberliW,BenistonM.Climatechangeanditsimpactsonglac2iersandpermafrostintheAlps[J].Ambio,1998,27(4):2582265.[2]CramerW,BondeauA,WoodwardFI,etal.GlobalresponseofterrestrialecosystemstructureandfunctiontoCO2andclimatechange:Resultsfromsixdynamicglobalvegetationmodels[J].GlobalChangeBiology,2001,7(4):3572373.[3]PartonWJ,ScurlockJMO,OjimaDS,etal.Impactofclimatechangeongrasslandproductionandsoilcarbonworldwide[J].GlobalChangeBiology,1995,1(1):13222.[4]NationalAssessmentReportonClimateChangeCompilingCommit2tee.NationalAssessmentReportonClimateChange[M].Bei2jing:SciencePress,2007.[.[M].:,2007.][5]LXuedu,WangWenyuan.AdvanceandProspectofResearchesonGlobalClimateChange[M].Beijing:ChinaMeteorologicalPress,2003.[,.:[M].:,2003.][6]IPCCWG.Climatechange2007:Thephysicalsciencebasis:Summaryforpolicymakers[EB/OL].[7]KnutsonTR,DelworthTL,DixonKW,etal.Modelassessmentofregionalsurfacetemperaturetrends(194921997)[J].JournalofGeophysicalResearch,1999,104:30981230996.[8]FlatoGM,BoerGJ.Warmingasymmetryinclimatechangesimu2lations[J].GeophysicalResearchLetters,2001,28:1952198.[9]ColmanRA.OntheverticalextentofGCMfeedbacks[J].Cli2mateDynamics,2001,17(5):3912405.[10]ShackleyS,YoungP,ParkinsonS,etal.Uncertainty,complex2ityandconceptsofgoodscienceinclimatechangemodeling:AreGCMsthebesttools?[J].ClimaticChange,1998,38:1592205.[11]WangZaizhi,YuRucong,BaoQing,etal.AcomparisonoftheatmosphericcirculationssimulatedbytheFGOALS2sandSAMIL[J].ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences,2007,31(2):2022213.[,,,.(SAMIL)[J].,2007,31(2):2022213.][12]HoughtonJT,DingY,GriggsDJ,etal.ClimateChange2001:TheScientificBasis[M].UnitedKingdomandNewYork:Cam2bridgeUniversityPress,2001:473,476,5362543,585,617.[13]PeckSC,TeisbergTJ.InternationalCO2emissionstargetsandtimetables:AnanalysisoftheAOSISproposal[J].EnvironmentalModelingandAssessment,1996,1(4):2192227.[14]ManneAS,RichelsRG.TheKyotoprotocol:Acost2effectivestrategyformeetingenvironmentalobjectives?[J].TheEnergyJournal,1999,SpecialIssue:1224.[15]NordhausWD.ManagingtheGlobalCommons:TheEconomicsofClimateChange[M].Cambridge:TheMITPress,1994.[