社会-经济-资源-环境和谐度评价与预测

华中科技大学硕士学位论文武汉市社会-经济-资源-环境和谐度评价与预测姓名：罗璐琴申请学位级别：硕士专业：环境工程指导教师：周敬宣20070608I“”1184932------1988——2004(1988-1994)——(1995-2000)——(2001-2004)(SD)---GDPIIGDP5GDPGDP344I20100.75673IVGDP0.4910.550.50.7GDP11%IIIAbstractCityisanimportantcarrierinconstructingsocialistharmonioussociety.Onlythecityisharmonious,theurbanandeventhecountrywillbeharmonious.Itisanimportantissueondevelopmentpathchosenandstrategicdecisionofaharmoniousurban.Policymakersarealsofacingamajorproblemofhowtorealizerapideconomicdevelopmentandsocialstability,andalsokeepusingrecourcesrationallyandprotectiongecologicalenvironmentandfinallyreachthegoalofsociety,economics,resource,environmenthamonyinWuhanwhichisinthesignificantstrategicperiodofMid-Chinarising.Thispaperaimedtoestablishascientific,reasonableharmonyevaluationindicatorsystembasedonthesuccessfulexperienceofevaluationandpredictionofthesustainabledevelopmentandcoordination,andconductquantitativeevaluationofsocial,economic,resourceandenvironmentalharmonyinWuhancity,andthenforecastthetrendoftheharmoniousdevelopment,finallyputforwardpolicyrecommendationsonbuilding“aharmoniousWuhan”.Bycontrasttothedifferencebetweentheconceptofharmonyandsustainabledevelopment,andalsohamonyandcoordination,theconceptandessenceofharmonyweregiven.BasedonthetheoryofharmoniousdegreeandtheconditionofWuhan,aharmonyevaluationindicatorsystemwasestablishedwithhierarchicalstructurewhichwasmadeupofobjectivelayer,constrainedlayer,subsystemlevel,criterialayerandindicators.Comprehensivesocialdevelopmentindicators,integratedeconomicdevelopmentindicators,comprehensiveresourcesdevelopmentindicatorsandtheenvironmentconstitutetheconstrainedlayer;Subsystemlayerwasreflectedbycriterialayer;criterialayerwasreflectedbyspecificevaluationindicators.Thenumberofsocialsubsystem,economicsubsystem,resourcessubsystemandtheenvironmentsubsystemwasrespectively11,8,4,9,withatotalof32indicators.Finallyafterindependenceandviabilitytesttheharmonyevaluationindicatorsystemwasscientificandresonable.Withtheapplicationofanalysisofsociety,economics,resource,environmentsystemelementsanddependence,society,economics,resource,environmentharmonyevaluationIVmodelwasestablishedwithbenefit-balancethoery.ItwasshowedthatecomomicsubsystemandsocialsubsystemofWuhanrisedobviously,butresourcesubsystemandenvironmentalsubsystemwasunoptimistic;WuhanCitywentthroughthedisharmony(1988-1994)--thevergeofdisharmony(1995-2000)——inadequateharmony(2001-2004).Theexperiencemetthegeneraltrendofsocial,economic,resourcesandtheenvironmentharmoniousdevelopment,butsocialsystem,economy,resourcesandenvironmentalsystemsincoordination,economicsystemandsociety,resources,environmentandinharmonioussystemdisharmonystillexistedinWuhanCity.Social-economic-resources-environmentsystemharmonyforecastmodelwasestablishedbasedonSystemDynamicsandscenarioanalysis.TheGinicoefficient,population,GDPunitenergyconsumption,emissionsandGDPwereselectedandthesystemflowchartwasconstructed;theGDPgrowthrate,environmentalfactorinputsandtertiaryindustriesweredetermined.Fourkindsofscenessimulationprogramsweresimulated;Finallyharmonyevaluationmodeloffourscenesofharmonyundertheprogramwasconductedtopredict.Theresultsshowed:ScenarioIwhichmaintainedthatthecurrentmode,WuhanCityin2010wasonly0.7567;Bycomparingthefourscenarios,ScenarioIV,tertiaryindustryaccountedfortheGDPincreasedfrom0.491to0.55,environmentalfactorfrom0.5to0.7,andtheGDPgrowthrateof11%isthemostsuitablepolicy.Intheend,basedontheresultofestimatingandforecastingmodel,therecommendationsonbuilding“aharmoniousWuhan”weregiven.Keywords:HarmonyevaluationForecastSystemDynamic(SD)ScenarioanalysisWuhanCity________()1128GDP810301)---1.11.1.12005“”“”“”2)“”200620101)2)2WTO20058“”20062010GDP300050001.1.212“”31.21[i][ii]19952004[iii][iv][v][vi][vii][viii][ix][x][xi][xii][xiii]---2[xiv]4[xv]---1.3[xvi]25[xvii]529[xviii]20[xix]16[xx]51.41.4.111niiiZAY==∑(1-1)ZAiIYii19932003[xxi]2[xxii]3[xxiii]4i---61.4.1[xxiv](SBB-Systemblackbox)(SST-Systemstructure)[xxv][xxvi][xxvii]YingFan[xxviii]Yun-FengChen[xxix]RobertFildes[xxx]1.51.5.1“”---7“”1-11.5.281-1------(SD)---------SD91022.12.1.11“”“”“”·“”·“”·“”“”·“”·“”23114“”“”“”2.1.212123456789102.1.31[xxxi]13“”2[xxxii]vii“”[xxxiii]32-1142-1()Hs“”()Hsdt∫()Hs2.1.412152.2---2-12.2.1---1---iZH2-1---16[xxxiv];:();172---;2-22-2---182.2.21()()2192.2.3---1()2---3201998——200642.2.4---1minminxxxxX−−=xj(2-1)xxxxX−−=maxmaxxj(2-2)221[xxxv]“”“”2-12-1[xxxvi][xxxvii]xij(0)ij(i12…nj12…p)np1ijijnijixsx==∑(2-3)221lnnjijijihss==−∑(2-4)1jjgh=−(2-5)xj1jjpjjggω==∑(2-6)31pijjjZxω==∑(2-7)4123441234()ZZZZHZZZZ⋅⋅⋅=+++(2-8)Z1Z2Z3Z4HH23()()123441234/4kZZZZHZZZZ⋅⋅⋅=+++(2-9)kk82-22-20.90-1.000.80-0.890.70-0.790.60-0.690.50-0.590.40-0.490-0.392.3(SD)[xxxviii][xxxix]---3-21SD(SystemDynamics)202050(Forrester,I.W.)2070[xl],(Stockandflowdiagram),(level/stock)(rate/flow)(auxiliary)()[xli]24[xlii]2-3(SD),25[xliii]“”[xliv]23SDVENSIM[xlv]VensimPLEVentanaSimulationEnvironmentalPersonalLearningEditionVentana[xlvi]26Vensim“”(Building)EquationEditorModeDocumentVensimcmfmdfWindowsVensimMSWordVensi