搜索
©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:2006209219;:2006210217:(A20050710);(2005204);(20051025):(1982-),,,E2mail:koujun0550@1631com1,2,2,2(11,524088;21,510300):19491985,,,,,,,,0193,99%,,:;;:S932:A:1673-2227-(2007)01-0007-07InfluenceofnaturalenvironmentvariationonfisheryresourcesinBeibuGulfLIKoujun1,2,QIUYongsong2,WANGYaozhong2(11FisheriesCollegeofGuangdongOceanUniversity,Zhanjiang524088,China;21SouthChinaSeaFisheriesResearchInstitute,ChineseAcademyofFisherySciences,Guangzhou510300,China)Abstract:Accordingtothestatisticaldataofcatch,fishingeffort,aswellasrainfall,windspeedandsalinityaboutGuangxiduring19491985,theeffectofthenaturalenvironmentvariationonannualchangeofGuangxicatchhasbeenanalyzed1Itisdifficultytobetransformedforthefishingeffort,sothetimeserieshasbeenadopted,thentheregressionmodelofcatchtofishingeffortandtheenvi2ronmentvariableshasbeenestablishedtoreflectthevariationoffisheryresourcesinBeibuGulf1Theanalysisresultindicatesthefluctuationofcatchhasnotonlyremarkablerelatedwithfishingeffort,butalsowithaveragerainfallofGuangdongcoast,averagerain2fallofBeibuGulfcoast,WeizhouIslandsalinityaswellasHongKongmonsoon1Theregressioncoefficientinthemodeloftimese2riesandenvironmentvariableis0193,andtheconfidencelevelisabove99%1Theresultsshowthattheeffectofvariationofenviron2mentalfactoronthefluctuationoffisheryresourcesinBeibuGulfbesidesthefishingelementisremarkable1Keywords:BeibuGulf;catch;environmentalfactor(1054011010E17002145N),,,,,,38m,106m,1218104km2;,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1],;,[2]:(1),,,,;(2),11111949198537:(1);(2)2,KNMIClimateExplorer;;,1985[3],19491985112.[M].:[s1n1],1985:136-152.11211,SPSS(softpackageforsocialscience),,,23,,11212,,,(1),,:Ce=Gi(gi)+Hi(hi)++Yi(yi)+M,Ce;y,Y(y);gh,G(g)H(h),,M,2211,,1958,,,,(1),0186,P0101,,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(c)Fig11Effectoffishingeffortoncatcha1thechangetendencyandfittingvalueofcatch;b1fishingeffortofnon2mobilefishingboatinBeibuGulf;c1fishingeffortofmobilefishingboatinBeibuGulf©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1-a),()2,,3,,,:,,12()Fig12Interannualfluctuationofcatches(residualerror)inGuangxi1Tab11Thecorrelationanalysisbetweencatchesresidualerrorandenvironmentalfactorsenvironmentalfactors(R)correlationcoefficient(P)()significance(22tailed)(n)number/atimelagWeizhouIslandsalinity-013801070242precipitationofcoast012901098332monsoon014401010341.[M].:[s1n1],1985:136-152.213,19491957,,6DF1,,1949,112t,1957317t,194921119581962,,19621969,,,,1969418t2070,,10%,,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[4],19771318t,,,,19781981,6815t,1979612t,197755%2080©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),21411,,;,[5],,,,0129,95%(1),21412,[5],(),,,,,,0144,99%(1)21413,,,,[6],,0138,95%(1),[7]21521511,,,:Ci=1065132Yi+3186Wi-1+1196Wi-2+76152Pi-2+4116115,Cii,Yi,Wi-1Wi-2i-1i-2,Pi-2i-2Ci0193,,F46124,P01001,Ci2,,,01933,99%,4,,2Tab12Partialcorrelationsbetweenvariationofcatchesandtimeseriesaswellasenvironmentalfactorsinmultivariatelinearregressionequationenvironmentalfactors/atimelagpartialcorrelationcoefficient(P)significancemonsoon-10164301000precipitation-20129601112©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(1)2050,,70,,,80,,(2),(1),(3),,,,01933,99%,,,:[1],,,.[M].:,2003:6-81[2].[J].,2000,21(4):1-51[3]WATSONR,PAULYD1Systematicdistortionsinworldfisheriescatchtrends[J].Nature,2001,414(11):534-5351[4].[J].,2000,3(2):55-571[5].[J].,2001,3(4):61-651[6],,.[J].,2004,2(1):30-331[7],.[J].,2005,1(3):29-30.